Churchill Downs
October 31, 2019
It’s Halloween! And it looks like the weather might be spooky, unfortunately. We were off the turf yesterday, and that very well might be the case today also. I handicapped as if they would be on the grass, if they are not, you’ll just have to draw a line through those two turf races.
Let’s see if we can build the bankroll heading into Breeders Cup weekend.
Good luck!
Race 1
#2 Ready Orb Not
I really struggled with this race, not a very consistent bunch here. I settle on this filly because I think she has the most class. Last time was her first time in for a claiming tag, and she didn’t run all that badly; especially considering she had some trouble at the start. She did make some headway in the stretch. Even without the beginning trouble, she doesn’t have any speed, so that is a concern considering there really isn’t any pace in this race. I’m just hoping she can get a clean trip and her class can prevail. Corey Lanerie will be riding.
#5 Carolina Beach
This girl is coming off back to back runner up finishes. Today she’ll be making the surface switch back to the dirt. Her lone win came on the dirt, and she’s hit the board four out of eight on the main track. She’s also run a decent race over this track before. Again, no real early speed from her. But if the pace is fairly slow, she’s shown she can lay close to it and still be effective. Miguel Mena will have the mount.
Race 2
#3 Competitive Queen
She’s coming off a pretty decent maiden win, albeit against a weak field. But today’s field isn’t full of superstars either. If you draw a line through the turf tries, she’s been fairly competitive in her dirt races. This will be her third start for trainer Michale Ewing, so they might be figuring her out now. She looks to be training quite well leading up to this race. I would expect her to be close to the pace. Robby Albarado is having a very slow year, but hopefully he can get a win with this one.
#4 Contendress
Very big drop in class here. She’s definitely been facing better horses, although she doesn’t appear to be in great form right now. So will the class drop be enough? Possibly. I do think the cutback in distance could also help her. Trainer Brendan Walsh is coming off a pretty good meet at Keeneland, so we’ll see if his success carries over to this Churchill meet. Brian Hernandez is the pilot.
Race 3
#7 Eagle Pass
Without question, this gelding is in the best form out of anyone in this field. He’s also very consistent and shows up every time. Steve Asmussen claimed him at Saratoga over the summer. Now, he has been off since then, but Steve is good off the layoffs. Plus this horse ran well fresh before so I’m not super concerned about that. He’s got early speed, but he’s not a need the lead type. If he brings his best effort, he will be tough to deny in this spot. Ricardo Santana in the saddle.
#3 Hinton
Not really sure what to make of this one. He’s been off for about 19 months, and really hasn’t done any regular running in about two years. He is five for eight, so he does know what his job is. Trainer Thomas Drury is a superb 40% off the long break, and he’s got good numbers overall, so this horse could be ready. The class drop could also benefit him, considering the layoff. John McKee will ride, and he hits at 35% with Drury, so that can’t be ignored.
#5 El Rubio
This one might deserve a look just for the fact that he’s first off the claim for trainer Tom Amoss. That’s a very effective angle. He’ll be putting this horse back on the main track, and he shows a nice drill over this surface last week. He usually lays close to the pace, so I wouldn’t expect any different here. Alex Canchari will have the mount. When he teams up with Amoss they win about a third of the time.
Race 4
#4 Remedy
This filly has been on the sidelines since February, so that is a concern. However, trainer Brad Cox is about 20% off the break, so I’d still expect this horse to show up. Her last four races have all been against G3 company, so this is definitely a step down. You see Midnight Bisou, and She’s a Julie in the running lines, and there’s no one in this race even in the same stratosphere as those mares. I would expect her to be close to the pace. Corey Lanerie will be the jockey.
#2 Sweet Diane
This 3YO also has some class. Last winter she faced the likes of Street Band, and Point of Honor, those are graded stakes types of fillies. This one has been off since July, but trainer Eddie Kenneally is also great off the layoff at near 30%. This horse is one for one at Churchill, so that helps. I think her inside post will help because she looks to probably come from behind in this race, so being inside should allow her to save some ground. Declan Carroll will be aboard. He and Kenneally are about 40%(!) when they team up together.
#6 Rahway
This girl is coming off a well deserved break. She had a lot of races stacked up on her PPs. I look for her more as an underneath horse. At this one mile distance, she has one win and four seconds from five starts. I do expect her to be close early on, and possibly hang around to get a piece of it. She has proven to like this track though, so I wouldn’t toss her out completely. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the irons.
Race 5
#9 Quiet Dawn
Well, not a strong group of runners here. I’ll put this one on too mainly because of the massive class drop. It is a little suspicious, but I think the connections are just being aggressive here. It will be her first try on the dirt, but I don’t see an issue with that. It won’t take much to win this race, so hopefully she’ll be good enough today. Brian Hernandez gets aboard.
#3 Mountain Melodies
I have to give a first time starter a try against this field. These connections can win on debut. And Mike Maker is about 23% when making the debut in claiming company. The works look terrible on paper, but that’s to be expected considering the horse is being offered for just $15,000. If she can run at all, she might be able to at least hit the board here. Tyler Gaffalione will ride.
#4 Indellibly
Another one that’s dropping from maiden special weight company all the way down to this level. Again, given these connections, I think they’re just being aggressive and realistic. She’s also switching from the turf to the dirt, and cutting back from a mile race. Her works on the dirt actually look alright, so I think she’ll handle the surface switch. Brad Cox trains, Corey Lanerie rides.
Race 6
#5 Tito Tonight
I like this guy quite a bit in this spot. His last two races were sharp efforts on the grass. Overall he’s four for ten on the lawn. I think he’ll be the controlling speed in here, and he’s actually cutting back from a mile and three sixteenths. No doubt this is a big step up in class, but I think he’s ready for it. He’s had a couple months off, but he’s been effective off layoffs in the past. Edgar Morales will ride for David Vance.
#6 Mystical Moon
It looks like the blinkers may have done the trick last time. He finally broke his maiden in career start number seven. So facing winners here for the first time won’t be easy, but maybe he will take another step forward. One of my favorite jockeys, Mitchell Murrill, will be the pilot. Brian Lynch is the trainer.
#3 Armchair Jockey
I’m think that this horse may be falling out of form a little bit. He’s definitely got class and races in his past that could beat the group, but I’m not in love with his last two races. Most of his best races have come with a pretty quick pace in front of him, and I’m not sure he’ll get that today either. With these connections, he’s sure to take some money, but I’ll take a shot against him. Julien Leparoux aboard.
Race 7
#3 Club Car
I actually was looking to take a shot against this girl considering she’ll be a heavy favorite, but I just didn’t find anyone else I could trust. This filly returned from a five month layoff a few weeks ago and run a very strong second. She’s hit the board in all four of her starts, but hasn’t shown the tenacity to win yet. Maybe today will be the day. She has enough speed to sit just off the pace, so I think she’ll get a good trip in here from an inside post position. Corey Lanerie has ridden her multiple times before, so he’s definitely familiar with her.
#1 Nurse Sadie
She’ll be making career start number nine today, but just her second try on the dirt. Her last dirt race was a year ago, so I’ll just draw a line through it. Most of her races have been sprinting on the synthetic. In most of those races she has shown a decent late closing kick. So if she gets pace to run at in here, I think she can hit the board at a price. I’ll definitely be using her in my wagering. Alex Canchari will be riding for trainer Robert Pompell.
#9 Tipazar
Another here that I just could not trust enough to put on top. She’s run nine times and hit the board in eight of them; so that’s not bad at all. However, I can’t pick you to win with that type of resume. She’s definitely consistent, but she needs to prove she has a winner’s mentality. She’s run well here at Churchill before, so that’s a plus. She’s looks like she’ll be stalking the pace from this outside post. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the irons.
Race 8
#7 Troubling Moon
I think this gelding is trending in the right direction. Two starts ago he broke his maiden, and then last time he beat winners in his first try at the level. Now he’s stepping up again, but I think he can handle it. He’ll be stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth for the first time. I don’t see any reason to think he won’t handle it, plus I think his tactical speed could be advantageous in this race. I hope he gets a good trip and I think he’ll have a say in the outcome. Brian Hernandez will be aboard again.
#8 Eskenforit
This guy is also trying this level for the first time, but I also think he fits with this group. He’s actually cutting back in distance quite a bit today. His last race was a mile and three sixteenths, and he won that quite impressively. He’s had success at this track and this distance before, so that’s helpful. I think he’ll be able to stalk the pace from his outside post. One thing to notice is that Gabriel Saez is riding him today, and all three times he’s ridden him previously have resulted in this horse’s best races.
#1 & #1A
I didn’t really know what to do with the entry in here. Both of them have lots of class and have definitely faced stiffed competition, however, I think the turf is probably the better surface for them. I’m not saying they can’t win, but maybe the value will be elsewhere in this race. Tyler Gaffalione is listed to ride both, so it’s possible they are planning to scratch one of them.
Race 9
#3 The Rock Says
This one will be switching back to the turf today. His last five starts have been on the dirt, and they were all respectable races. Even his first two races on the turf last spring were good. He shows up and puts in a good effort every time; and he’s faced some pretty good allowance fields before. The distance should suit him just fine, and I think he’ll get a good trip just behind the speed. Tyler Gaffalione will ride for trainer Stanley Hough.
#6 Kadar
He’s dropping out of stakes company back into this allowance race today. Speed figure wise, all his races have been good. I think the cutback in distance will help because he has now early speed, and the cutback will enhance his big finishing kick. I think there will be an honest pace today, so that will help him even more. He’s has some pretty fast works since his last race, faster than Mike Maker would normally be working his horses; so I think that’s a good sign. He’ll be making his fourth start here in the states, and he’ll now have his fourth different rider. Ricardo Santana gets on today.
#8 Untraceable
This gelding is in his best form, and he brings speed to the party. He’s won two in a row, both on the turf, and both in front running fashion. He’s taking a step up in class today, though. All three of his wins have been at this distance, including one here at Churchill. There does look to be other speed in here, so he’ll be hoping to avoid a speed duel early on. Edgar Morales rides.
Race 10
#3 Rock Me
Tough bunch to sort through here. I settled on this guy because he’s in the best form he’s ever been in. And if you look at his last three dirt sprint races, they all are pretty good tries. I think the 7F distance should suit him well. I expect him to be midpack early on. I don’t see that much speed in here, considering a sprint race. Rolando Aragon will ride, and he’s had success on this horse before.
#6 Starlin
This horse is also in pretty good form at the moment. He’ll be cutting back from a mile distance; he’s shown speed in those, but at this distance I’d expect him sitting off the speed. He hasn’t had any success on a wet track, so if it does rain a lot, that might decrease his chances. Robby Albarado will be riding today.
#7 Top Credentials
He’s coming off a freshening, having not raced since August. He ran a couple good races during the summer, so if he can return to that form, he’ll be a contender in here. He looks to be another one that will be stalking the pace. I think this distance will be good for him also. Rogelio Miranda will be in saddle.