Here we go for a warm Louisville evening of racing from historic Churchill Downs.
Looks like a nice card this evening, let’s get things rolling;
Race 1
4-3-1
4- Lucy‘s Revenge – Broberg Is sending some horses to Churchhill hoping for the success he has had out of the other tracks. This girl dropped down to half of the claim in price and stretches out slightly off a short layoff. She has done well at Churchhill and also done well but a little wind shy at the distance. Great trainer stats of this kind of a layoff and first after a claim.
3- Stina- Was a claim for hire on April 20 from Oaklawn and came to Churchhill at a much elevated price. You can throw that line out and this girl is ultra consistent in the previous lines. Should get nice value for this mare who has amazing stats at the distance.
1- Big Blue Magic- this Filly Is very consistent and often claimed. She goes up slightly and price and her speed figures will work well with this group.
Race 2
3-6-2
3- Kahramani- trainer Joe Sharp has not had a great start to the meeting and is hitting only at 5% so far. He is due to break out and catch up to his yearly average of 20%. I like the horses coming from Oaklawn first time out at Churchill. Likes the track and loves the distance.
6- Got Even – another coming from Oaklawn and also loves the distance for great connections. The jock has had a slow start to the meeting but this guy should appreciate the change in track and the distance.
2- Strut the Ring – The likely favoured here has run lights out and been ultra consistent over the last 10. There is an much to not like here as the only stat that concerns me is that he has not finished in the money in three other outings at Churchill.
Race 3
9-3-8
9- Moms Pass- lots to like here for this first time starter. I’ve always liked these connections and they have done very well as a team this year. She has some nice turf breeding on both sides of her pedigree starts with Lasix and has a nice outside post position. My eyes were drawn to the April 28 Lone Star work from the gate.
3- Eloquent Lady- this gal has lit it up in the mornings with some really nice works mainly her April 18 training track breeze going five. She comes back here to try the turf and adding blinkers which both can help after having some experience on the dirt.
8- Candys Dream- I like this Ontario bread and should show some good value switching dirt to turf for her second start. She was bad in that initial try and did have some road trouble, look for progress on the turf.
Race 4
8-5-10
8- We Did – Oh yes we did pick this guy to win the race. These bottom level claimer races usually or anything but consistent. I like the last race at Oaklawn for the six-year-old and now drops way below her recent claiming price. I can see Blaze Firing from the gate as this horse did February 1 at Oak lawn
5- Cedar Creek – Another one who’s dropping down big time for this race. Based on his statistics he does like the track it is a bit windy shy as many others here are.
10- Greeley’s Charm – another one off her recent claim and dropping down for new connections. I like his running style and he should be able to pick up pieces down the lane. Shows nice numbers at the track and at the distance.
Race 5
3-7-2-6
3- Summer Revolution- stretching out dropping down and coming in from Oaklawn for a quality connections I like all those factors. The race on April 7 really stands out for me and even though it was on a sloppy track I feel he showed great ability against a
much tougher group.
7- He’s Bankable- it looks like this guy will keep dropping in class until he finds a spot where he can be competitive. I think this may be it as his speed figures have been ultra consistent since late last year. He will most likely show early speed and carry it much further than he did his last two against this week or group.
2- Cowboy rhythm – I really like this guy as the trainer does well with second off layoffs and this horse is done well both at Churchhill and at the distance. His speed figures are above most in here and if he races anywhere near his last to Oaklawn races he will do very well.
6- Hunka burning love- I had it this one is a bit of a bonus as I think he can get in for a piece.
Race 6
5-7-2
5- Sophie Antoinnette- Probably my best pick for the day as I really like this Filly dropping down sticking to the grass for these connections that have done very well on the turf. I think my only concern is the trainer is only at 4% for horses coming back of a similar layoff.
7- U.S Currency- has shown a liking for the turf and is had three out of four placings on the lawn. She drops down for this for capable connections and shows some nice works getting in shape for her return.
2- Snattered- good value play here as the blinkers go on for the first time and coming in awesome very nice workouts at Arlington. The two Tampa races were really not bad and takes a drop for this first race at Churchill.
Race 7
1-3-5
1-Graceful Princess- She is one of my best pics for today as she comes back off a layoff and is been working very well for this allowance tilt. This three-year-old is regally bred and this could be her race to shine.
3- Whoa Nellie – what a great race she ran last time at Churchill, her next race at Oaklawn wasn’t the greatest and now she comes back after just over a month off some really nice works.
5- Mo Gayle- showed some nice talent early in the year at Fairgrounds and has not transferred that to her next to starts. Trainer Stuart add blinkers for the start where he is a very successful 24%.
Race 8
7-10-3
7- Lontani – another that I really like this evening as I love the connections and really like the angles for this four year-old. Trainer cox is 29% second off layoff 39% route to sprint and these factors played big-time for my choice.
10- Campaign Spy- this guy dropped down for the third straight time looking to hit the board. Check out the last work out on May 13 a big time bullet as he went 46.4 for 4 furlongs beating 68.
3- Grande Royale – A bit of a swing here for the second time starter dropping down big time in class and well below the Yearling purchase price of $130,000. The connections have done well together and the trainer is a strong 22% off maiden second time starter and 25% from maiden special weight to maiden claimer.
Didn’t have the greatest week last week but looking to turn this around this week. On paper I like the card much better and will be hitting some key plays this evening. Good luck and giddy up.