Welcome everyone to my weekly contribution here to the Daily Gallop, I am Bryan Doranski and I am excited for racing to have returned to Churchill Downs, and with it, these large fields, and profitable opportunities. This meet I am going to focus more on the why than the wager- while recommending some wagering opportunities, I want the reader to take away how I get to a play and what to do about opinions. There are plenty of columns that will tell you what to bet, but if we work together, we can figure out the how. My strategy for Churchill revolves around daily doubles and letting the probables tell me how to handle my opinions. If I can get a strong horse with 2 nice prices on a double I often will play an A/A,B type double to take advantage of these large pools. My top selections for each race will be watched in double probables and probably played with a 2×1 or even a 3×1 structure where appropriate if the prices are right. For newer bettors, I would recommend reading through my writeup- opening up your past performances, follow along with the writeup and perhaps use this column as a starting point for you to narrow down my top picks for your own play of the day!
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
It looks like as of writing they are calling for a cloudy day, with a high of 69 degrees, so I expect a fast/firm type of day.
Race 1 4.5F- Dirt
This is a tough race with 13 first time starters to sink our teeth into. Obviously 2 MAD MADDY and 4 TEQUILA QUEEN are going to take a lot of money, and being half sisters out of American Pharoah, its deservedly so. His 2-year-old first timers are winning at 15% clip. The interesting thing here in the pedigree side is that American Pharoah’s are only winning 9% in dirt sprints, which with an overall win percentage of 13%, surprises me. Wesley Ward has won 1 out of 8 times with a 2-year-old starter at Churchill Downs with a payoff of $4.00 which leaves me a little concerned on Tequila Queen being a good bet here. On the flip side, Steve Asmussen runners with that same criteria are 13 for 68, but an average payoff of $7.00. ATTENTION, ATTENTION! Runhappy’s first starter is here in 5 PRETTYHAPPY. Nice reported works for the first offspring of the heavily marketed sprint champion to race coupling that with Laura Wohlers having an 8.80 ROI on her first timers and 4.24 for 2-year-old starters there’s a decent argument to make here but no way do we see 15-1 ML action. For value side the 12 DOUBLE WHOPPER with a ML of 30/1 is interesting to me as she has Maclean’s Music on top of the pedigree which is winning at 18% 2 year old first time starts and producing higher offspring Beyer’s than anything American Pharoah has done thus far. Only 2 posted works are a little concerning here, but the May 15th work is impressive. If I were playing horizontals I would be very spread here and looking for a price to start the pick 4 off. As a double option I will look to the longer of the two morning line favorites with along with the 5 and see what probables tell me to pick and choose spots.
Thoughts: 2-4-5-7 Longshot: 12/5
Race 2 6F- Dirt
The second race on Thursday seems to make a lot more sense, and probably somewhere you want to be narrow in horizontal wagers. This past weekend, speed held good on the front end of sprints and I do not want to take a horse that is sitting back off it today. If Race 1 were not 2-year old’s I would use it to gauge the track, but I do not want to rely heavily on that data. I expect the 1 BARRY LEE and 9 I’M CORFU to be up front early pressing a good pace which should allow Joel Rosario to sit a pocket trip with 5 T LOVES A FIGHT. The last few outings 5 T LOVES A FIGHT has faced slow times and has not been able to make up ground, but today with a good honest pace upfront, I think Joel will keep this gelding in a good pressing spot and ready for the stretch run. Do not let the stats fool you here Orlando Noda is 0% wins off a layoff of 60-180 days but with only 6 samples, I cannot weigh it much. The closest contender here is the 7 RULER OF THE NILE who ran well at Oaklawn Park last out after trying higher class levels in the slop back in March. The ML here of 3-1 is solid and I think I would be happy to get that here. Its hard to toss a pick in here but I would say any combination of what I have listed would be a decent approach, if the 1 and 9 don’t fight early its possible they are a touch too quick in the first ¼ to lose today as well if the speed holds. The 10 STAY HOME looks strong a horse for course angle at a juicy price of 12-1 on the ML as the horse has ran its best career numbers here at Churchill with 7 starts 2 wins and 1 placing. Ultimately, I will choose the better of the 2 speed horses as my winner with the stretch runners underneath, accept that T LOVES A FIGHT is probably the most logical winner.
Thoughts: 9-7-5-1 Longshot: 10
Race 3 8F- Dirt
The only 2 dirt mile races over the past week were Monomoy Girl and Dinar who were both forwardly placed throughout. So, I can use that just a little to stay with my theory of being upfront and look for horses who are close to the lead at the ½. Unfortunately, there are a few here which include the 12 DROP DEAD GORGEOUS who looks like could be a lone speed out front early. With the chute start at Churchill for the mile the outside post position is not a detriment and this filly should be able to clear and get over. Even if giving up the early lead to the 4 REVEALING QUALITY or 10 MAGICALLY HONORED worst case the horse ends up 3 wide in the turn, but Ricardo Santana Jr is a good enough rider to know what he has and where he needs to be. Downside- taking a 3-1 ML horse that is looking to break maiden in the 14th attempt is a bit off-putting, add in coming down to 20k ranks to find a win for what has clearly been a disappointing career thus far. I have tossed the 7 NESSUM DORMA and 9 GYPSY WIFE as they both are deep off the pace types and do not fit today except perhaps underneath in verticals. Expect the 12 to be a short price and if 4 REVEALING QUALITY takes yet another step forward with the early speed, could be the one to beat. 6 ROZAFA is interesting as a longshot, with logical progressions in every start, going from maiden to special weight at Will Rogers Downs. Could not win there and comes to Churchill in what might be the toughest field yet. Being lightly raced as a 3-year-old and getting weight allowance, an interesting horse to bring a price.
Thoughts: 4-12-9-10 Longshot: 6
Race 4 8F- Dirt
Lowest level claimers in this spot and this is usually a lot of people’s problem races in that form cycle for this level can be hard to determine. Add in 16 entries as of this writing and it is a headache! I finished the rest of the card and come back to finish this race- move with caution and let scratches tell you a story with this field. The 9 SUMMER REVOLUTION makes debut for the Robertino Diodoro barn which is winning 31% for a 3.02 ROI. I cannot skip over that stat when coupled with this horse back class. A lot of graded company races that were just too much, but 2020 the horse seems to have found a rhythm in the claiming ranks. I figure this horse will be the chalk and I can understand why, but with the questions here, I will see if I can find a better bet. 5 SUN BROWN shipping in from Hawthorne could be above this gelding’s level but with Brittany Vandenberg winning 75% off a layoff, I will include him even as a defensive play. The horse has run this distance 10 times and in the money 7 times, so should include in verticals if you do not like on top. The last horse that is in the race that really has my attention is the 6 JUNIOR GILLIAM, who I liked at Oaklawn Park last month and had a decent trip, but was pushed wide and couldn’t get the job done. Has never repeated the type of Beyer’s that he did for Hollendorfer out west in 2018/19 but this will be the 5th start from the long layoff with increase efforts this year. – If 14 ALL ABOUT ASHLEY gets in, could benefit from a weak early pace and be able to sit closer than usual and with what has been proven as a strong late kick, could catch up late, but too far back could be detrimental. 15 TOO FAST TO PASS has been working well lately and if draws in, clearly would be the pace setter- at 8-1, worth keeping an eye on scratches. 8 ERNIE BANKS– at 6-1 hard to consider a longshot, but after the layoff, had some good works and might have needed that last race at Oaklawn. Prefers a fast track and was against it that day, so will include here as this gelding is 4-6 in the money for fast dirt.
Thoughts: 6-9-5-8-2 Longshot:8
Race 5 6F- Dirt
Another nice large field to figure out but there is a horse here I really like at good morning line. 5 JERSEY AGENDA-ran in some graded stakes company in 2019, albeit disappointing connections and has not ran back to those numbers since leaving the Asmussen barn. Horse is 1-1 at Churchill Downs however and brings a value here. Sometimes a dirty past performance history can lead to value, sometimes it leads to losses but if this horse is ignored at the tote, seems to be a good play today. 4 FEELING IT is a nice-looking gelding for D Wayne Lukas’s barn with a mixed meet at Oaklawn. Gets a weight allowance with Jon Court aboard and could have benefitted nicely from the time off and decent workouts. Will be forwardly placed and could even be the leader early. 9-2 ML with a big field here could return a good post time price. 6 HIS GIANT– will be the favorite and should sit a nice pressing trip behind the 4 and 5 early, has been improving in last 3 starts, and is 4-9 in the money at this distance. Hard to not single in horizontals but will be short to bet to win, I think. 14 FIREHORN is a very logical longshot here and if draws in, could not be a longshot come post time. Nice forward running horse who is going to be sent early in the slop, I will excuse the empty effort in the stretch.
Thoughts:6-5-4-9 Longshot:14
Race 6 8.5F- Dirt
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All card I have handicapped as if speed and forwardly placed horses are where you want to be. So, it is hard to make 3 FROST OR FRIPPERY a top selection. There really is not a lot of early speed in this race besides the 12 BLUE STEEL and the AE 13 ROARING FORK. With the class of 3 FROST OR FRIPPERY, I will leave this accomplished gelding as a top pick, accepting it will be a short price. This could be a good spot to play doubles in and out of 3 FROST OR FRIPPERY. Should be close enough to what appears to be a moderate pace and within striking distance. Has been in the money 12-16 times at this distance, so hard to look elsewhere. If the Also Eligible’s do not draw in, then the 12 BLUE STEEL could find himself alone out front able to set soft fractions and power home to win as a 2nd or 3rd betting choice. This is the race so far that will be scratch dependent to formulate a strong opinion of how to handle the pace set up. 6 OVERZEALOUS– Makes a lot of sense and very similar to 3 FROST OR FRIPPERY for pace setup needs but without the back class to support it. 4-4 in the money at this distance and 4-5 in the money at Churchill. A horse for course type play here with Corey Lanerie aboard. If this gelding is overlooked at the tote, needing the same scenario as the 3 at a better price would probably be a top pick.
Thoughts: 6-3-12 Longshot: 13(AE)
Race 7 5.5F- Turf
Takes us 7 races to get to the turf today and this is a nice field of 14 entries for the sprint. Not a real good handle on how the turf played from Sunday with 2 front runners and a closer winning. With this being a sprint, I do not think you want to be back as there is a lot of speed today. Getting an idea for this pace picture, any number of horses can be out front early from 2 REENIE D, 5 WINANDYOURIN GIN, 9 MORE and 10 DEVILS DANCE. The good thing from a pace handicapping point is these horses I mentioned seem to fade off and the 9 MORE has not seen a fast pace yet to be on the lead with. The 10 DEVILS DANCE has Paco Lopez aboard and in addition to that Kendrick Carmouche on the mount who might be my favorite sprint rider in the country. This filly needs to step up from the last 2 performances but should be in the money today. 3 DALIKA is going to take a lot of money but has not ran on a firm mile course since coming to the U.S. Has ran well on yielding turf and if there is any give in the course should be consideration. Likely to sit in the 2nd back behind the leaders and open in the turn but on the cut back, might need longer to win. Rosario aboard for a ride like this seems hard to pass but the likely short price will make it easier. 4 MENTALITY– Had a nice 4-year-old campaign but nothing to really write home about 4 races and 3 in the moneys. Wesley Ward is not exactly lights out with the older horses or the sprinters from layoffs but that is mostly because his horses get bet down. Should be forwardly placed and in the mix. 7 HARMESS as a longshot here is interesting as a mid-pack runner but Julien Leparoux knows this track well. Ran well at Santa Anita on the turf before a dud of a performance at Turfway on the synthetic. Could be well intended and a good spot at a possible double-digit price.
Thoughts:10-4-3-7 Longshot-7
Race 8 8F- Dirt
Back to the dirt we go for the ladies which is a good field for a random Thursday afternoon This race feels like the chalk is not where I want to be. A lot of value opportunities here depending on your preferred handicapping style. 5 MOORAC seems to have the early pace advantage but I question some of the figures I see in the running lines. For class reasons I am going to skip the last race and go 2 back at Oaklawn park where she was clearly outclassed and leaves to go to Will Rogers and was never a threat, despite what the comments are in the PPs. Probably gets bet short because of the pace situation but I do not think I expect her to hold on, perhaps underneath in verticals. Running next to her should be 6 PRINCESS PHONE– who is coming off a long layoff for a barn that hits at 17% in this situation. Not a big fan of the workout pattern, so conditioning could be an issue here for a speed horse, going to let her beat me today. Going to go for a bombs away horse here in 2 CLASSY JUSTICE– Broke maiden last out in November and returns here in a good 30k spot- and looking at the last 2 races of the 3 year old campaign would be close today versus this field. Sharp work out on May 17th, with a good 7-10-day pattern give or take and horse should be conditioned well and ready at a huge ML. Small step up in her 4-year-old debut will give a good price and effort. 3-6 in the money at Churchill in 12 lifetime starts, worth a shot here. 1 ADDISON– Talamo didn’t ride for Dale Romans a lot considering the recent change in circuits, but this horse race decently at Gulfstream park over the winter, which was probably not the preferred track after the December effort during the Championship meet. Might be too slow early to contend, but if the horse takes to Churchill which the 1 win in 1 try record shows, could be worthy of a price if it floats up from the 9-2 ML.
Thoughts:2-4-1-5 Longshot:2/1
Race 9 8F- Turf
If you never read race conditions this is a bad one to start to understand. A lot of stipulations here but a nice quality field of runners. The Also Eligible’s here will change this whole race, so if there are a lot of them drawn in, take a second look. I am going to cap that this is on the turf so eliminate Lone Sailor and doubting we get to 16 KJ’s Nobility. I like 9 MR DUMAS here more than I should, but I expect 5 FRONT RUN THE FED to take the bulk of the money. First the ML Favorite 5 FRONT RUN THE FED– runs well and Chad Brown on the turf with Javier Castellano is a winning combination. Other than the Better Talk Now Stakes at Saratoga, the horse has won Maiden Special Weights and a good showing in the English Channel. First start as a 4-year-old after the winter with Chad should prove to give the horse a step forward, but at this price with a limited winning resume, I will use defensively only. I expect a lot of horizontals to go single here, so it is a good opportunity to leave off tickets to create extra value if you do not feel strongly for. It is possible 5 FRONT RUN THE FED will be up front early with the 1 ROYAL MESA and 8 CLINT MAROON perhaps being worn down. 9 MR DUMAS– should sit in the 2nd pack watching the leaders go early and save some energy. Should have fractions like a win last year and with Martin Garcia aboard, be able to save energy for the drive. 2-2 at Churchill and should have some value in the tote. 6 RITZY A P. makes his 2020 debut after a nice meet in California last year. Seemed to have not progressed as well as foes in 2020, so will be curious how the horse debuts this year. Might not be good enough to win, but at 6-1 ML could be a use underneath type. 14 LOUDER THAN BOMBS– If by chance this horse gets in, will be my longshot for the race. I do not think the horse can win on his own merit, but if a few things happen at a 15-1 ML, why not take a swing. Trainer David Fawkes has a positive ROI in allowance races and does well in route. In limited samples of 5 races has teamed up with Santana Jr to win 20% and over 8 ROI.
Thoughts:9-5-6-8 Longshot:14
Race 10 8.5F- Dirt
This is a solid finale on the card and one that I want to have covered in horizontals. 11 GARDEN AFFAIR– Speed, speed, speed, and this filly has it. Leaves maiden special weight ranks for maiden after 12 tries to break maiden. Last outing was by far the best after trying the stretch out and returns to Churchill where, she is 2-3 in the money. Corey Lanerie aboard who won 46% of his mounts for Chris Hartman in 19-20 at Churchill. Class relief should help this early runner. 1 SENSE YOU LEFT– After leaving William Mauk’s barn D. Wayne Lukas found something as the last out was a good effort at Oaklawn. Only running on the 4th time and was game in last finishing being 11 GARDEN AFFAIR at a huge price. 6-1 ML should leave plenty of meat on the proverbial bone of the tote for us here. Should sit behind the early runners and get first move on the pace setters if they falter. 3 EDEN– I think this filly needs 1 more outing before I will consider her competitive, couple of nice outings, but want to see how she does in this start, and finally takes a step forward. 4 SOOTHING– Long layoff for this Hess entry but has the right pedigree with Giant’s Causeway on top and Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom- profitable from the layoff for the barn and takes off blinkers. 2 Places in 2 efforts on the fast dirt, so definitely game here, with what appears to be a decent workout pattern from the layoff. Might be a little concerned with some of the spacing, so will not play on top. The last horse in this race I want to watch is the 8 FLASHING RED. Wayne Catalano has not been good with first out for his barn types or layoffs, but horse appeared to be game in March at Gulfstream Park, that being said though, at a 9-2 ML, I think I would rather put money elsewhere and let this filly get into form before I back her.
Thoughts:11-1-3-4 Longshot:1