After a short stay at Keeneland now we focus on Churchill. I had a lot of low price winners at Keeneland and now looking at some more value plays out of Louisville. Happy derby week and let’s get ready to roll.
Race 1
7-1-4
7- Deviant- I can’t believe I’m looking away from the ward entry as he has been red hot with these two-year-olds but I think he has to lose some time. This hundred and $50,000 yearling purchase has been working lights out. I think he’s going to take the lead and never look back.
1- Entry- if Warren doesn’t win he’ll sure be second, enough said. Both parts of the entry have been working very well in the mornings and word is 36% with first time starters.
4- Memorable- I like Asmussen training youngsters in this uncle Moro colt looks like he’s ready to go first time out and should enjoy the distance.
Race 2
2-5-7
2- Cowboy Rhythm – is always knocking on the door at this distance and is hit the board 100% of the time at Churchill. His speed figures will do well against this group and I look for Baze to keep him just off the pace. The trainer and rider have been doing well lately and I look for this to continue.
5- Altito – third off the layoff and dropping down for this look like good signs against this group. You should get good value on this gelding that has a great record of the distance and at Churchill.
7- Mr Darcy – another in this bunch that is dropping down as a great record at Churchhill and a great record at the distance.
Race 3
6-7-4
6- My Majestic Rose – I really like this trainer I liked the horses second off layoff and I like the added distance. Also the work out on April 21 at Keeneland is a great sign leading into this race.
7- Second coming. – might be the favourite here off his first and only race at Keeneland. Getting a little at a distance which should help. Note that the trainer is 0 for 26 with the maiden second time starter.
4- Sweet Addison – This low price weanling had a great race last time out at golf stream at a lower level. She did show that she can run and I think the added distance is definitely going to help and she should be a price.
Race 4
8-4-7
8- Lurey An – A big favourite last time out against much tougher at Keeneland and she failed to fire. She drops down below her claimed price looking for an easy score against a week field.
4- Katie the Cutie- Ran a great race with a good speed figure off a layoff last out at Keeneland. If she runs back to that she could very easily win this race. Drops back into open claiming where she has done well in the past, also shows a liking for the track and the distance.
7- Sun Dress- running second off a layoff after having a credible race against much tougher at Keeneland. Could be the controlling pace here and may get away from the field as she did in October at Keeneland.
Race 5
4-9-2
4- Voting Control – a nice colt out of the brown barn that is Thad three very nice Races including an amazing third against Mendelssohn in the breeders cup juvenile turf. It Hass to be noted that that was a year and a half ago and he has been off ever cents. Brown does a good job getting these horses back to the races and there are no real standouts that he is racing against.
9- Battle of Memphis – another that has not raced a bad race. Added blinkers in last and it proved to be a very good move. Will be a low price but should be there right at the end.
2- Armistice Day- has had a good career so far and those two races at Woodbine last summer were very good. This is a bit of a longshot as he is racing against older horses and on tour for the first time.
Race 6
6-8-5
6- She’s a Blossom – Not much to look at on her form but drops down big time for trainer Sharpe Who takes over. Some nice workouts leading to this race off a layoff in which Sharpe is 32%. Watch the tote board for this one as if she is getting money early she could be live.
8- J Ds Girl – Has had three average races leading into this and now takes a big drop down for her first Race after a shortl lay-off
5- Paigley – The change in trainer was a big factor in me picking this one for the third spot. Trainer hits at an unbelievable 43% taking a horse over for the first time and she raced very well last time out.
Race 7
8-1-3
8- Will be the favourite in this very low level claimer. The drop-down by a high percentage trainer is a sign that they’re getting rid of this horse for cheap. Amoss likes to take his money and run.
1- Swamp Ruler. – shortening up dropping in class and leaving from the rail a rock good signs for this five-year-old.
3- Cha Mono – coming in off of layoff he’s been running at this price forever. If he runs back to his last race he will do well here and also note that he likes Churchill and likes the distance
Race 8 Opening Verse Stakes
2-1-3
2- Hot Springs – this guy is four for four At this track and one for one at this distance how do you go against him. On paper he didn’t run the greatest race last out at the fairgrounds but now he shortening up to a preferred distance and speed figure from that last raise was amazing in comparison to the rest of the field.
1- has done very well off the claim or year ago and shows the liking for the distance. Speed figures work well with this group and the rail should not bother him.
3- Monarchs Glen – European import has some really nice time form ratings coming in this first in North America start. Workouts show a nice progression and two bullets out of the last five works.
Race 9
4-5-7
4- Data Damsel- looks good coming into this test as she drops down big time for a capable trainer and rider. She worked well leading up to her first start off a layoff for the new trainer going shorter. Definitely looking for a wake up Race today.
5- Ipanema Beach – finally woke up last out while being claimed after a big drop down. This capable trainer has the ability to go up in class and be there at the end.
7- Social Circle – lightly raised three-year-old comes in for owner trainer Sims off an amazing race at Keeneland. The drop-down may have been all she needed and she made double up here after feeling good from her open lengths win.
Race 10 Unbridled Sydney
2-7-5
2- Surrender Now – Has never had a bad race on the turf and I look for that to continue in this low level stake. I’m drawn to the two races at Delmar where she sat just off the pace and had a nice kick at the end. I see that move working well against this group.
7- Morticia – has done very well over the years in this type of stake race. Is an amazing 14 out of 16 at this distance and shows ultra consistency in her past performances.
5- Luvin Bullies- raced against a lot of these last outing at Keeneland and did not embarrass her self. If you’re looking for great value to round out your tickets this girl maybe it.
Race 11
4-7-9
4- Aizhai- another big drop for a quality outfit as they are looking to try anything for a second win on his card. Big drop down first time Gelding should help this guy in the finale.
7- Bryzzo – once again looking for the drop-down angle and change in distance to get in the money.
9- Taylor’s Sence – Really not sure what happened in his last outing but the high-quality trainer should have him ready in this much lower class.
Enjoy your day at Churchill, make some money and giddyup. It looks like rain is going to roll In later in the day and throughout derby weekend. We can all pray to the rain gods to hold off until Sunday.