We have a good card this evening at Churchill, the weather looks good and most fields are full. Good luck!
Race 1
9-7-1
9- Orleans- this three-year-old had a nice second start on April 27 at Churchill and if she runs to that race she should win here tonight. The trainers record so far this year is of concern as he is zero for 21.
7- Northern Heart – Her three races on her resume are not bad at all as she has shown progression with her speed figures in each race. Dropping down here to her lowest level so far should result in her being close at the finish.
1- Don’t Tell Lydia – this girl keeps trying to win one in this being her 13th start. She drops to her lowest level ever and should be coming on at the end in this mile event.
Race 2
2-1-6
2- Curiousandcuriouser- Asmussen pics this five-year-old up for himself off the last outing at Oaklawn. Horses running first out after an Oakland start have done very well so far at this meeting. Trainer drops the recent purchase down off last start which was a winning one look for low odds and a nice stretch run.
1- A nice entry for these high percentage trainers at this bottom level claiming event. They should set up a low price exactor with my top pick.
6- Olympic Smoke- doesn’t really run a bad race specially at this level and distance. She shows an affinity for this distance and has done well on this track.
Race 3
2-4-5
2- English Dancer – is not run a bad race in over a year and has been ultra consistent of late. The trainer does very well second time off layoff and is written by a high percentage jock. The high percentage trainer has done well recently in Kentucky and I look for a strong race against a weaker field then last.
4- Sassy Little Lila – Will be in another in here tickets betting support for the second time off a layoff in which her trainer is a very strong 57% with an unbelievable $40 ROI.
5- Cheeky Cherub- this mess has tailed off a bit of recent Races but if you look back to the Churchhill races at this time last year you will see a liking for the track and the distance, based on this you should be able to get a nice price today.
Race 4
5-9-7
5- Perfect Alibi – i’m a big fan of Casse first time starters and this one looks well prepped to graduate first time out. She shows some very nice workouts leading up to this race and has some very nice breeding for the abbreviated distance. Definitely watch the tote board to see if she is live.
9- Topless – Has already run well once at Keeneland and did well finishing second in her race on April 24. You should note that the third-place finisher was almost 7 lengths back of her in that race.
7- Pranked – trainer Amoss has been getting more involved with young horses and here is one that is well bred and has shown some nice works in the morning. He also shows a 28% win percentage for first time starters.
Race 5
2-11-12
2- Mississippi Moon- taking a bit of a shot here on a $700,000 yearling that is now running first time out for $20,000, obviously this is a bit of a concern. Trainer Stall has done very well with debuting in maiden claiming Races and for first time starters in this colt comes in with some nice works in the morning and goes Lasix first out.
11- Big Island- is now in his 10th race after being unable to win in his first nine. Has been ultra consistent in the maiden claiming ranks most recently in Tampa. Big concern as the connections show very low percentages this year.
12- Admiration – shows up at a greatly reduced level off a long layoff with a new trainer. Lots of change but these quality connections should have them going early at a fair price.
Race 6
2-1-3
2- Indian Lover – this trainer jockey combination has done very well over the years at Churchhill. This guy comes in off a bit of a layoff and has done very well showing consistent speed figures it is only two turf Races. I like his starting position and his ability to leave well into finish strong.
1- Madisons Luna – not thrilled with the rail post but like the fact that the blinkers are coming off and he has done very well in his only turf try. He has been facing much tougher than he will find here and comes off some nice works over this extended layoff.
3- Masked- this guy is been going through the training carrousel with now his fourth high-quality trainer. Recently gal did this for-year-old seems to have enough speed to get out early and if the course is playing fast should do well through the stretch.
Race 7
5-3-6
5- Tap That Cat- Has raced twice and raced well in those races. There’s not a lot of early speed in this race and I feel this for-year-old Filly can go gate to wire. Should be out and running with my second choice here.
3- JDs Girl- very nice race in last when dropping down at this track. My concern is the lack of competition in that race in a possible bounds here in her second time mode off a layoff.
6- Nine Martinis- Gets back to previous trainer and comes in to a reduced level. A bit of a reach here but should show some early interest which could work out well on a speed favouring surface.
Race 8
7-5-8-3
7- Joy to the World- we are a ways away from Christmas but this third time starter might be able to give you a nice present. I like the first time turf try where she was very respectable and being bad I have some nice workouts. The fact that blinkers are added is a positive for me at this abbreviated distance.
5- Brittas Bay – another here that had a positive first try on turf running for trainer ward. I am not thrilled with her ability to take the lead and keep going as she has shown she gets the lead fairly easily but cant finish.
8- Bries Lucky Charm- has been in the money three out of four times on the turf and now cuts back dramatically. I have always been a fan of the cut back on the turf as it can lead to a value horse in the tri.
3- Dixiecandyland- was well bet in her first start April 14 at Keeneland but did not run at all. That race came off the turf a footing that she should excel on. Watch the tote board for early action as this may indicate her readiness on the turf.
I like some races I don’t like some races and I love some Races a typical day at Churchill. Let’s make some money and giddyup.
@shawn55murphy