Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, September 22, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1

1st #1 Ulele was an understandable $300,000 purchase.  You won’t hear me say that often, but this daughter of Candy Ride has had a successful start to her career as she multiple stakes placed.  She’s coming out of a grade one and this is a perfect spot for her.

2nd #4 Cubs Win I had chosen last out at KY Downs and she ran a respectable third place finish.  It’s cool to see that her breeders still own her too, (not super common unless they are graded stakes horses) and she has a consistent racing record which is a bonus.

3rd #5 Fizzy Friday (GB) is multiple stakes placed which earns her credentials in this race as opposed to several others.  A fifth place finish at KY Downs is something a lot of connections would want to have, as silly as it sounds. Besides that, she’s done really well in Chicago.

Race 2

1st #3 My Sixth Sense has been improving if you take a look at his last couple of races his performances have been better, despite the not hitting the board.  He’s lightly raced and coming off of a near two month layoff so he should be fresh.

2nd #1 Aquadini is by Bernardini and his dam Indian Pond was a successful multiple graded stakes placed winner.  His success has came from this year, since he only ran once as a two year old. This is a softer spot for him as opposed to his recent other starts.

3rd #5 Peppered has done very well for himself running in Canada.  Two races back he ran fifth in the Ontario Derby. Good breeding, with his sire Tapizar pretty popular.  My big concern is that lengthy layoff, but hopefully the connections have him ready to go.

Race 3

1st #1 Heroic Officer just kind of quit in her first race which was a bummer.  Sometimes two years olds just need a couple of races and hopefully that is the case with this gal.  It’s really a matter of what she wants to do, whether go to the lead or sit back.

2nd #8 Sister Alex looks pretty good on paper.  It probably has to do with her connections, as Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr. are pretty popular together.  Workouts are decent, but her trainer excels with two year olds.

3rd #3 Sunflower Rose is making her debut, much like almost the rest of the field.  She’s been working out better than most of these baby girls, and her trainer Norm Casse is one that is worth throwing a bet on most of the time.

Race 4

1st First off, I always look to find the diamond in the rough as a handicapper to make the most of my bets, but #3 Curate is one that probably won’t disappoint.  Brad Cox is one of the kings of the KY circuit, the horse runs huge e-numbers and Beyers, and has only been off the board once this year.

2nd #4 Mr. Ashley is a Tom Amoss trainee who’s pulled of three second place finishes this year, but not a win.  He did place in a stakes race at Turfway at the beginning of the year, but it would be nice to see him take a step up at this level.

3rd #2 Belle Tapisserie really stepped up his came at Colonial Downs last out.  His race before that was coming off of a layoff and I think he just needed an out to get fit again.  He, just like #4, is also stakes placed. He ran third in a stakes at Gulfstream at the beginning of the year.

Race 5

1st #9 Super Terrific has finished third in half of his career starts, but hasn’t gotten any closer.  His last race was an improvement, which sets him up here. Paul McGee trains, Corey Lanerie rides. He is one of the top jockeys in Kentucky.

2nd #6 Deal Neal In may have ran sixth in his debut at Arlington, but do keep in mind he didn’t get a clean break.  It can be a tricky task asking a first time starter to come out of the gate. I’m hoping there’s good things with this one, because he was close to three and a half when he ran for the first time.

3rd #4 Kansas City Zip has made a little over $40K which is really good for a maiden, and he is due for another good performance.  Alex Canchari is a good rider no matter where he goes, and it would be nice to see this guy finally win. One of these days he will pull it off.

Race 6

1st #9 Cheytac has had a good racing record this year.  Both of his wins this year have came on the Churchill track which helps him out here.  I’m not sure what happened last out because he just quit when they turned for home. Going to give him another shot here.

2nd #3 All About Ashley has had a very successful career compared the most in the field with earnings of almost $350K, and is also more experienced.  John Ortiz is an up and coming trainer so make sure to keep an eye on his runners.

3rd #5 Driven by History has done quite a bit of traveling this year but hasn’t had much success.  His fourth place finish three races back was good even though it doesn’t look like it on paper. Hopefully the stakes winning son of Two Step Salsa can literally “step it up” here.

Race 7

1st #10 Lady Jenneviere is really the one to beat being she just ran second at Kentucky Downs.  Brad Cox teams up with his favorite rider, Florent Geroux. Can she beat the boys is the only question that looms.

2nd #7 Super Mamba has me super excited (no pun intended).  I used to watch his dam, Anabaa’s Creation (IRE) race against the great Zenyatta.  Not going to lie, his works aren’t great, but that doesn’t always mean much. He was purchased for $130K which seems low to me considering his breeding.

 3rd #9 Street Ready was “never a threat” in his debut, but sometimes that’s normal for maidens.  Ian Wilkes and Chris Landeros are a very good team, (also father and son in-laws) had a really good summer winning several stakes including a $500K race.

Race 8

1st #8 Wedding Belle one of these days is going to break her maiden, so why not be now? She’s a homebred for Robert Hunt out of Wedding, who was unraced but owned by Clairbone Farms.  Ethan West started training officially in 2018, so another one to keep an eye on.

2nd #7 Unsweet Tea has eight races this year, and two of those have been on the board.  She’s a hard one to take given how her running style isn’t showing a great pattern, but on paper she appears to be in good shape today with some class relief.

3rd #12 The Mallard Queen is coming down quite a bit in class, for half of the price.  Since her first starts haven’t been good, I take it this will help her out. Declan Carroll is riding, and Al Stall Jr. trains.

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