Churchill Downs Racing Analysis- Sunday Nov 24 2019- By Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1- 1st #6 Potomac won a real nice one last out at Saratoga.  He’s had some time off, which I think he was due for. Loved his performance that day and he’s had a good year earnings wise too.  He didn’t live up to what China Horse Club wanted but he’s been trying for his other connections.

2nd #2 Spokane Eagle shares the same sire as Potomac.  Like his half brother, he’s had a great year but his success has came from California where he ran against some rock star horses.  I love the effort he puts into his races.

3rd #5 Coal Truth just didn’t fire last out, which is weird for him because he’s ran some nice races this year.  Some ups and downs, but his prime performances came from Prairie Meadows this spring/summer. I hope he can get back to his old self.

Race 2- 1st #3 Big Time Player is bred to be a star.  (My family owned My Dixie Doodle), and she’s already had her American Pharaoh foal win at Saratoga.  Candy Ride is also a top sire. He was purchased for $525K so lets see what he’s made of.  

2nd #7 Attuck has had three races, with a second and two thirds.  Better than most of the field. Those finishes come from Pennsylvania and hopefully he likes Churchill.

3rd #8 Embellisher hasn’t shown much, and his last race wasn’t a good performance.  His connections are giving him some class relief and a different jockey. Maybe this can turn things around for him.

Race 3- 1st #3 Pretty Assets has earned just shy of $100K this year.  She’s coming out of a stakes race at Indiana Grand. She’s stakes placed (in a different race), and owned/trained/bred by Gary Patrick who has done well with her.

2nd #6 Ginormous is a four year old filly by Giant Oak, she’s coming out of an allowance race at Indiana Grand to here.  Interestingly enough, eighteen out of nineteen of her starts have been at Indiana Grand. Maybe the change in scenery will help.

3rd #1 Nocturnal Mission comes off of a win at Delta Downs exactly a month ago.  She’s never won at Churchill, but hopefully her win last out can help her to build a little confidence.  Six starts this year is fairly lightly raced compared to the others.

Race 4- 1st #6 Remembering Rita is a graded stakes winner.  He won the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker in 2018. He’s made $419K and has a lot of talent.  Been in some tough spots, and for him it may sound like this allowance optional claimer is going to be easier than his stakes but it’s a field of loaded talent.

2nd #5 Big Dollar Bill is multiple graded stakes placed, but hasn’t found his way to the winners circle yet.  He had about ten months off, ran good, now he’s had another two months off and is back in this race. I’d like to see some consistency.

3rd #2 Guest Suite is another graded stakes winner who won the LeComte back in 2017 but just wasn’t strong enough to make it to the Derby.  He hasn’t won since March of 2018 so I’m a little weary of that but hoping he can hit the board.

Race 5- 1st #1 Unbridled Outlaw is graded placed, and the son of Unbridled’s Song.  Ran a nice race at Keeneland last out. This should be a winning race for him with the way the rest of the field sits.  His recent performances suggest he’s in good shape.

2nd #11 British Humor has had his best year this year as far as earnings go, and has found the winners circle twice from ten starts this year.  Now drops in class more. Hopefully this time he can get a safer trip.

3rd #5 Sumner had ten months off of his DNF finish at the Fair Grounds this year.  I’m glad he was able to recover and keep running, and his last race off of that long layoff was a third place at Keeneland and I’m impressed with it.

Race 6- 1st #5 Grand Meister ran third last out and it was a good performance.  He only lost by a length and it was definitely his career best performance.  If he can bounce back with another that would be awesome.

2nd #8 Pickford ran in the Canadian Derby in 2018, and has since raced twice.  His Oaklawn Park race was pretty good back in April, and I think he’ll need an out or two before he gets good again.  Quite the inconsistent record.

3rd #10 Go Away drops in class after a couple of clunkers.  I think Tampa Bay worked out pretty well for him, but don’t know how he feels in Kentucky.  Ran 2nd here exactly a year ago.

Race 7- 1st #10 Awesome Figure wasn’t herself last out when he ran last by a long way, but before that was a really nice horse.  It was her first race back since the early spring and I think that might have something to do with it.

2nd #12 Miz Shelton is a four year old filly by Graydar who is in an easier spot.  She’s been in races over her head for a couple of races, but was a solid competitor this spring, especially at Fair Grounds.

3rd #9 Broadway Cat has been to a couple of different tracks, and she broke her maiden here, but Indiana Grand is where she recently won.  Keeneland was pretty tough for her last out but it was a hard race.

Race 8- 1st #9 Dinar has talent.  He hasn’t won yet, but he hasn’t been losing by much.  His Saratoga race was the stand out performance. By Union Rags out of Internal Fair.

2nd #4 Copper King hasn’t been off the board in his four races.  Two seconds and two thirds. A $625,000 purchase, he’s got a long ways to go to earning it back.

3rd #5 Ekati’s Verve is a full brother to a Triple Crown competitor named Tale of Verve, and is a homebred by Charles Fipke.  His last race was a decent third place here.

Race 9- 1st #4 Spooky Channel has won five out of seven of his seven races this year.  The other two races were some tough company at Arlington and Canterbury, but they were still respectable runs.

2nd #2 Hierarchy has ran some quality races this year but has also ran at some tough tracks too.  His best race was for sure his win at Saratoga, but Kentucky Downs was quite a challenge for him and he handled it well.

3rd #1 Tiger’s Rule has ran in some tough races, had a hard year.  He hasn’t won in over a year and a half, and I feel he should be in a better spot.  He loves the Fairgrounds so I hope they take him back there this season.

Race 10- 1st #5 Victory Element has ran in some tough races at Santa Anita, and then transferred over to Kentucky.  He’s made $51,750 just being a maiden, so it would be great to see him get the maiden down in his seventh start.

2nd #7 Korczak has improved in each of his three races.  He’s on right path, but needs more experience to show for it.  He should be good in this spot and worth a bet.

3rd #1 Dry Lake is bred well, hasn’t showed much in his three races.  He’s coming off of a near eight month layoff with decent workouts. I think he will need an out or two, but has potential.

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