Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, June 9, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1-

1st #4 Tell Your Mama is coming down in the ranks and has only lost one out of three races at Churchill.  Her races last summer weren’t great, she was overmatched. Since she’s come down she has gained confidence and only lost by a nose last out at Oaklawn.

2nd #6 Zena Rules ran second last out here in this same spot.  She has eight second places, so usually the bridesmaid but at least earns checks.  Not in for a tag either, so the connections are trying to protect her,

3rd #1 C Islandsurprise runs for Merrill Scherer who is soon turning eighty, and a good article came out earlier this week on Paulick Report.  Looks like this mare was bought back privately and she just ran behind the #6.

Race 2-

1st #6 Bourbon Country won last out by a nose.  He barely made it up, so being short a furlong shorter may be a bit of a challenge but he is very qualified to win.

2nd #5 Wild About Candy ran in some tougher races at the Fairgrounds but then was able to improve once he got past that maiden breaker.  Just missed by a nose two back for $50K.

3rd #4 Senor Jobim just smoked the field last out for Steve Asmussen.  This is a little step up in class but when you win by six lengths you belong in something higher than the winning condition to protect the horse.

Race 3-

1st #9 Third Edition likes the turf and hasn’t been worse than third in three starts.  Robby Albarado rides. Still been working at Keeneland even though the meet has ended.

2nd #8 Bold Paynter has had a couple of tough losses at Arlington in his recent starts but now they are moving him to Churchill.

3rd #2 Red Sorrell’s race last out was a good one.  Don’t let the sixth place finish discourage you from betting on him, he didn’t get a good trip and likes the turf.

Race 4-

1st #1 I don’t really see Dos Vinos getting beat here.  Bret Calhoun is having a good meet. The daughter of Twirling Candy cost a pretty penny at $230,000.

2nd #4 Sail On is trained by Joe Sharp, who is also having a good meet.  Blinkers off, $475,000 purchase, and she is by Into Mischief.

3rd #6 More Mo For Me has a lot of works and a bullet.  Bred very well too. She is by Uncle Mo out of a More Than Ready mare.

Race 5-

1st #5 Portal won two in a row and lost last out by running fourth beaten by four lengths.  He was just claimed from Ian Wilkes now to Blair Jordan’s barn.

2nd #6 Lngtermrelationship hits the board often enough at Churchill and I remember watching him race last month.  Ran a really solid 87 Beyer number last out.

3rd #1 Dreamzapper just won last out for $40K.  Lightly raced and has been around Kentucky a few times.  He’s ran a couple clunkers and got the needed class drop.

Race 6-

1st #7 Felix the Fox has a lot of second place finishes and just ran second in a big maiden special weight here last out.  The son of Tapit is in good shape for this race.

2nd #8 Ry’s the Guy was Triple Crown nominated, but didn’t quite make it there.  He’s working well and hasn’t finished off the board in four starts.

3rd #9 Zip Your Lips had such a long layoff but came back pretty strong.  He’s made almost $53,000 this year alone not even with winning a race yet.

Race 7-

1st #5 Branson is making his career debut for Brad Cox.  China Horse Club bred this horse but ended up choosing to sell it, which isn’t something I expected them to do.  Works are decent.

2nd #8 Donnels Creek ran third in his first race and only lost by half of a length.  Honestly this could be the winner here. Excellent work outs.

3rd #7 Vice Versa has been working out since March but hasn’t made a debut yet, and today is the day.  He is trained by Steve Asmussen. Worked a bullet late April at Keeneland.

Race 8-

1st #4 Area has made her last two wins look easy.  Especially winning a $91K allowance easily. The fillies/mares I’ve chosen below are good, but I don’t think they are as good as Area.  She’s fast.

2nd #2 High Regard has ran some good races against tough company- even participated in a couple of grade two’s to make the road to the Oaks.  A fantastic filly by Will Take Charge.

3rd #3 Whispering Speaker is another solid filly.  She loves Woodbine but handled Oaklawn really well too, so I am confident she will handle Churchill as well.

Race 9-

1st #9 Salvator Mundi ran third in the grade three Bourbon last fall at Keeneland.  This is his first start back coming off of an eight month layoff. Trained by Ken McPeek.

2nd #10 Avingale (IRE) started his career in Ireland and was beaten a neck.  He came here and has done well in his two races, running first and second.  He broke his maiden in his last start here at Churchill.

3rd #8 Red Island (IRE) ran great last out too! Tough, tough allowance race and just finished second after he got caught close to the wire.

Race 10-

1st #10 Galatica is trained by Joe Sharp, who I mentioned above, is having a great meet.  This fella is taking a much needed class drop and is better suited.

2nd #11 Neil’s Diamond loved Canada and handled Arkansas pretty well too.  I hope he will eventually get to go back to Fort Erie where he crushed. I’d prefer a better jockey on him that’s won more than two races but if the horse is good enough…

3rd Let’s take a shot and hope there is a scratch so #13 Mini Miles loved Indiana, but hasn’t touched the Churchill track yet.  He’s picky on surfaces so it’s going to be a make or break for him.

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