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Race 1

1^st #1a Shut the Box was claimed back by Diodoro at Oaklawn which suggests he is a talented horse.  He likes Churchill which will be a help and has had some time off. He’s also been beat by his stable mate, but that was quite a while ago.

2^nd #3 Concord Fast comes out of a tough race, and prior to that, a stakes at Charlestown.  He’s done a lot of traveling around which can take a toll on a horse but he has handled it fairly well.  His race last out doesn’t look great but it was a tough one. Not to mention, he only lost by a little over four lengths.

3^rd #1 Majestic Affair would be 1a’s stable mate that beat him some time ago…  I was not surprised that he was claimed for the $80K which ended up to be a nice profit for the prior connections.  He’s ran some pretty spectacular Beyer numbers last fall too, which would have been as good as some graded stakes winners.

Race 2

1^st #4 Holly Go Lightly I am going to try on top in this wide open, tough race.  Her last race was brutal. Don’t let the placing deceive you, she had a terrible trip and didn’t even lose by much.  Saez has been on this filly for a long time now, so he knows her well and what works for her.

2^nd #3 Lexington Grace (IRE) ran well in California, and then something changed out of the blue.  When Assmussen ran her last out for the first time in his hands, she won here at Churchill. She’s a globetrotter, running here, halfway across the country, and halfway across the world.

3^rd #7 Love on Tides I have chosen before when she ran at Churchill last fall, and since she lost by 29 lengths, I can’t say I was pleased with the effort.  But, she has since redeemed herself enough for me to stick her in third and she ran just behind LG last out.

Race 3

1^st #1 Armament was in over his head last out and maybe didn’t like Oaklawn.  He takes what I’d consider to be a pretty steep class drop. He’s not consistent so I’m surprised he was actually claimed.  I am taking him for the class drop.

2^nd #6 Stuart Hall is also taking a class drop.  The filly by Pioneerof the Nile definitely has potential as a broodmare, since her sire is now deceased and was full of talented runners.  She was purchased for $190,000 and hasn’t come close to earning it back yet, but I have faith she will run a good race.

3^rd #2 Ghost Story was a good purchase for $8,000.  She’s made a little over $74K in some tough ranks and is four years old- so plenty of time left to keep on running and making money.  Also a class dropper.

Race 4

1^st #3 Fightress is sired by Tapizar, just like #1, and they are both the favorites.  Just something to note. This gal is on a big class drop which sits her up well in this spot.

2^nd #1 Tap That Cat has three races, three on the board finishes.  Brad Cox trains the heavy favorite who was a $165,000. Unfortunately, he isn’t running at the levels that set him up for the success the connections were hoping for.  

3^rd #2 Nine Martinis is stepping down the latter.  Yes, she is 10/1, she has a lot of ups and downs, but just seems worth sticking in third since she is coming down.  

Race 5

1^st #2 Dunph has been over his head for a long time.  This is still a tough spot, but a little more softer than where he has been going lately.  Mike Maker trains the son of Temple City.

2^nd #5 Crafty Daddy belongs in this spot but is being asked a lot.  The first two races had hard breaks, and even his first win he still had a tough trip.  The son of Scat Daddy has a hopeful future.

3^rd #7 J Zar isn’t always on the board but runs consistent numbers and efforts.  Walsh trains and Hernandez Jr rides.

Race 6

1^st #2 Celia’s Song is just simply the best out of the bunch coming out of what I’d consider a stakes race, although it wasn’t.  She is the most experienced and has made a good career this far, always finishing close.

2^nd #1 The Aurelia Factor is sired by you guessed it! The Factor.  She’s trained by her stud’s trainer, Bob Baffert. Don’t normally see him run a ton at Churchill, and it’s interesting that she is coming from Pimlico to here instead of California.

3^rd #5 She Beast has some excellent breeding.  I know the dam side really well and have watched all the siblings race.  Her older brothers had a ton of talent and one is now a sire in Florida.

Race 7

1^st #9 Tauber at 6/1 has value and is being looked upon.  He’s making his first start for Steve Asmussen and was purchased by Zayat Stables.  Works seem decent.

2^nd #8 Copper Fiddle strikes me as odd.  Reason is, you don’t see many five year olds, especially not gelded make a career debut.  He ran well though.

3^rd #10 Flatout Winner is owned and trained by Joe Sharp.  Don’t see Sharp own many which is interesting. He’s slowly improving.

Race 8

1^st #5 What a Fox is a homebred owned by the Wests.  She hasn’t been running in easy spots and was in against some tough older ones that past spring, has had a little time off.

2^nd #6 With Dignity is by Declaration of War, who’s turning out to be hot.  She’s only had one race and it was a win, but this group is more seasoned than her.

3^rd #1 Goodbye Earl shouldn’t be 8/1 in my eyes.  That was a heck of a performance last out in a monster allowance race here.

Race 9

1^st #4 Surrender Now is the top one in this race in my thoughts.  Lightly raced as opposed to some of the others but has made the best of her races except for those three in a row, but obviously something happened.

2^nd #5 Ruby Motion managed a beautiful fourth place in the BC Turf Sprint and then didn’t run a great off her layoff but that could just be because she needed an out.

3^rd #2 Excessivespending is stakes worthy and has been there for a while now.  Love this hard trying filly. She’s made a lot of money and has done a lot of traveling.