Race Two: 1:14 post – Allowance 50000s 1 Mile 3YO&Up
3-4-2-5
Today’s second race offers a small field of horses that have already appeared for a tag of 50K or less. #1 War Veteran absolutely crushed a MC12500 field at Monmouth on 7/26/19 for old trainer Jason Servis. Now in the Ron Moquett barn, we have to wonder just how good that graduation actually was. Miguel Mena stays aboard perpetual bronze-medalist #2 Carte Blanche. He has had some success at Churchill, but one has to wonder how much this horse actually wants to win. Still, he’s not without a chance. #4 Grit and Glory ran a solid DQ’d third, only a nose behind the winner, at Saratoga on 8/22/19. He has had a little success here in Louisville and that last running line is sure to attract some pari-mutuel support. #5 I’m Busy also ran a quality race at Saratoga on 8/7/19. He has set the pace in his past two races, and he is likely to do so again today. He has only ran a route one time in his nine career races, so I wonder if he really wants the extra distance, but his pedigree, a son of Birdstone, says he could be fine and his last two works are pretty solid. #3 Galindo has three second place finishes here at Churchill Downs and I could argue that his 6/28/19 race here is good enough to win today. Jimmy Graham stays aboard this new gelding, and if the ultimate equipment change is successful, he should get a picture to commemorate the loss of his future breeding career.
Race Three: 1:43 post – MC 150000 7 F 2YO
6-9-2-3
The first baby race of today’s card is the very unusual $150,000 claimer. It’s the rarely-seen, “I don’t want to sell him, but I would if the price was right” condition. The ML is obvious proof as to how open this race is and ML favorite #2 Indian Cross is a lukewarm 4/1. I see no reason to take any of the short-priced horses, including a likely winner, #9 Bango. I’m totally playing for value in this race and I am interested in bucking the numbers by looking at #6 It’s Mandatory. None of the horses with experience are world-beaters and everyone is ducking the heavy hitters of the well-bred MSW class. Trainer Tim Glyshaw has pumped five 5F works into this son of Strong Mandate, so he should have every reason to get today’s 7F at first asking. Glyshaw only wins at 8% with FTS, but Strong Mandate has demonstrated some precocious babies by firing 14% FTS. Let’s see if we can get around 12/1 and take our chances.
Race Four: 2:14 post – MSW 95K 6 F 2YO
8-2-1-9
Here is the MSW version of the previous race for 2YOs, but these will run one panel shorter that the high-priced claimers. This race is an absolute puzzle to me, so again, I’m looking for value because none of these jump off the page. Sure #2 Shanghai’s Dream looks like he improved a great deal in his last race and we know we can’t ignore trainer Steve Asmussen, but why is Jockey Tyler Baze off the horse? Baze has been riding for Asmussen at Ellis Park, surely he could have kept the mount. If Shanghai’s Dream is supposed to win today, Asmussen would have left Baze aboard or called upon Ricardo Santana to get the job done. Because of this, I will take the other Asmussen #8 Substantial. He flashed some early speed in his debut and tired like many FTS do in their first race. Asmussen has put three workouts into him for today’s race and I expect a lot more fitness. The race experience will surely help as this field has nine FTS. Also, don’t ignore #1 Answer In. This Brad Cox FTS with Florent Geroux aboard is well-intentioned, but will have to be “much the best” to win at first asking from the rail.
Race Five: 2:45 post – MSW 95K 1 1/16 Mile Turf 2YO
7-10-3-6
The third baby race on today’s card will likely require some tote-board watching because 2YOs going 1 1/16 mile on the turf at first asking is a challenge we don’t see too often. #10 Cardiac Kid looks to be the most accomplished runner with experience, so it’s no surprise that Jose Ortiz climbs aboard for trainer Kenny McPeek. Cardiac Kid actually debuted on 7/13/19 at Saratoga at these very conditions before trying a dirt sprint on 8/10/19. Cardiac Kid has lost by several lengths in both attempts, so he is not a slam dunk. Brad Cox’s #7 In the Deep is bred for routing on the turf and Cox is no stranger to winning with FTS at 20%. The workouts suggest he is ready and Florent Geroux, Cox’s guy, has the mount. He could be the winner, but he will be a short price. If the tote board shows some steam on In the Deep, I’ll play him on top.
Race Six: 3:16 post – Allowance 97000n1x 6 F 3YO&Up
3-2-4-5
I’m not a fan of backing a first-timer winner in their next race, but #2 Volatile looks tough in this spot for trainer Steve Asmussen. Sure, debuting at Ellis Park might be a knock, but he closed into honest fractions and looked a little green while doing so. Any improvement makes him a serious threat to continue his winning streak. #3 Uber Kirk loves Churchill Downs and fired a bit of a dud in his 7/13/19 Saratoga effort last time out. Trainer Kenny McPeek freshened him a bit and tightened the screws in that 9/2/19 workout. Look Out.
Race Seven: 3:48 post – Open Mind Stake 125K 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
1-4-6-8
Scratches reduce this race to six runners and I actually wanted #3 Meadow Dance. Even with a limited field, there should be some honest speed up front setting the race up for #1 Divine Queen. I normally don’t make it a practice of taking Calvine Borel on top, but he’s this filly’s regular pilot and she’s quite good. She also loves Churchill Downs and we all know Calvin will get his trip. #4 Honey Bunny looks to have been off her game in her last two races, but trainer John Ortiz was letting her try graded company because she earned the opportunity earlier in this spring with her five race win streak. I don’t think she liked the Presque Isle all-weather footing in her 8/19/19 race, so I look for a much better effort today.
Race Eight: 4:21 post – Locust Grove Stakes GIII 200K 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
7-5-2-3
#5 Escape Clause is going to fire to the front and play catch me if you can with this group. If regular pilot Tyler Baze can get a little breather, he may just be able to walk this dog all the way to the winner’s circle. #7 Go Google Yourself will have something to say about that scenario as she will likely get first jump. Her last race on 8/11/19 finally got her the stakes win she richly deserved and I expect more today for this Paul McGee runner. That Ellis Park win was really good and she is making her second start in this form cycle. She may beat me, but I am fading Brad Cox’s #3 My Lady Curlin as her recent geography of Thistledown and Indiana aren’t impressive.
Race Nine: 4:53 post – Pocahontas Stakes GII 200K 1 1/16 2YO Fillies
3-5-6-8
It’s going to take quite an effort for one of these 2YOs to beat #3 Portrait. This Brad Cox runner looks loaded and that twelve length Ellis Park MSW win on 8/25/19 was just gaudy. If I was to try for the upset, I would look to #5 Blood Curdling. Though he’s not here today, jockey Dean Sarvis doesn’t get too many eleven length winning horses, so she is probably pretty good. Getting Corey Lanerie is a definite upgrade. #6 Morning Gold gets Lasix for the first time today for Kenny McPeek and Jose Ortiz stays aboard. Her maiden win at Saratoga was on the sod and she absolutely crushed that field in New York. If she takes to the main track, she’s a huge threat as we know she will get the distance.
Race Ten: 5:26 post – Iroquois Stakes GIII 200K 1 1/16 Mile 2YO
8-4-1-11
I’ll buy the hype on the Dale Romans’ #8 Dennis’ Moment. It looks like Irad Ortiz might be making this horse his early Derby prospect and I buy it. Poor Miguel Mena. I don’t need to tell you why. Just look at his last race. If he’s not the goods today, #4 Rowdy Yates will be the most likely beneficiary of a mistake by the top choice. #3 Scabbard could also get the job done, and he deserves it because they made him change his name from “Noose.”
Race Eleven: 5:57 post – MSW 95K 1 Mile 2YO
10-12-11-1
As a FTS, you will need to watch the board on the Brad Cox #10 Celtic Mischief. If he’s getting played, he is the most likely winner. If not, #12 Strike Appeal is very appealing. See what I did there?