Race 1: Alw 16000s, Six furlongs on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 1:00 PM EDT.
Selections: 1-5-4
(1) Dan the Go to Man: This five year old son of Smoke Glacken goes out for trainer John Ortiz who is hoping that the cutback in distance might do him some good after narrowly missing in his last outing at seven furlongs. Dan the Go to Man does have good tactical speed and should be involved in contesting the pace early on or at least running close to it which bodes well for his chances in this race. He has finished in the exacta in four of seven tries at today’s distance, posted a fairly sharp workout over the training track at Churchill back on the 12th, and Ortiz has been winning sprint races at a 20% rate over the past three years.
(5) K J’s Nobility: Trainer Steve Hobby sends out this son of Primary Suspect after claiming him early this month following an alright third place effort in a $40K Optional Claiming race at Indiana Grand. Over the course of his career, K J’s Nobility has hit the board in seven of his thirteen tries at six furlongs and in many of those races has posted fairly good speed figures which should make him competitive versus this field. Hobby has been firing at a 19% rate over the past three years not only with runners making their first start with a trainer but also with horses making their second start off of a layoff.
(4) Imma Bling: This son of Too Much Bling goes out for the barn of trainer Randy Morse looking to build upon a second place effort in a six furlong race against $62.5K Optional Claimers at Indiana Grand last month. He has hit the board in nine of his fifteen tries at the distance and also boasts the Bris Speed Rating (BSR) of a 104 at the distance, set in a listed stakes effort at the beginning of the year. His most recent work over four furlongs was particularly sharp, but Morse’s numbers for runners making their second start with a trainer and off of a claim along with his short ML odds are not particularly enticing and make Imma Bling an underneath play only.
Race 2: Clm 40000, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Fillies, Three Years Old. Post Time: 1:30 PM EDT.
Selections: 2-4-6
(2) Diamondcoat: This daughter of Gemologist finished third in her most start at this claiming level for trainer Bernard Flint and now stretched back out to a route distance for the first time in several months. Diamondcoat appears to be the lone speed in this field and if she is allowed to get out to a decent early lead, she could very well take this field gate to wire. Her most recent work over the main track at Churchill was particularly sharp and it is very encouraging to see Geroux (24% win rate in routes this year) take the mount today. Over the past three years, Flint has won at a ridiculous 43% rate with runners making their second start for him and posted a $7.09 R.O.I. as well.
(4) Evening Tide: The Ian Wilkes trainee will be stepping up in class today following a first place effort against $30K Claimers over a mile at Ellis Park back in September. She figures to do her best running late in the race whilst stalking the leaders from further back and if she can handle the class hike as well as the slight increase in distance, she could hit the board at a decent price. Wilkes has been finishing in the money over the past three years at a 48% rate with runners that won their last race.
(6) La Fee Verte: Let’s ignore Lukas’ stats over the past three years as they’re just plain awful. However, this daughter of Tiznow does take a major drop in class for Lukas and stretches back out to a route distance where she did show some promise earlier in the year. If La Fee Verte can return to the form that she showed in the two off the turf efforts earlier this year at Saratoga, then it is possible she could be forwardly placed and possibly pressure our top selection enough to steal an on the board finish. Leparoux, who has been riding quite well this fall at Churchill retains the mount.
Race 3: MC 30000, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 2:00 PM EDT.
Selections: 6-8-4
(6) Woody’s Reward: The Charles LoPresti trainee finished second in her most recent start at today’s distance and at this class level and in doing so did post the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. There appears to be a decent amount of speed entered into this field and although Woody’s Reward went straight to the lead in that last effort, she is tactical enough to take back and rate just off of the initial leaders before striking late. Geroux gets the call to ride today and thus far he has been doing fairly well with early speed types having won with 20% of his 284 mounts this year.
(8) Bless the Rains: This daughter of Animal Kingdom is sent out today by trainer Rusty Arnold to make her first true dirt start; her previous effort over the dirt was due to that race being washed off of the turf. If her running style from that last effort is truly indicative of her form over dirt, then Bless the Rains will likely try and make her bid for the lead from near the back of the pack as the field turns for home. Arnold currently boasts a 19% win rate at Churchill thus far in the fall meet and does have a fairly hot jockey in Morales (32-8-4-4 over the past 7 days) signed on to ride today. In all honesty, this race is pretty much a crapshoot filled with a bunch of just alright horses so it would be no surprise to see this one either hit the board or finish up the track.
(4) Believe Land: The Dallas Stewart trainee will be trying dirt for the first time today after having made her first two starts over the grass. Her pedigree of Uncle Mo over a Dixie Union mare does offer some hope that she will take to this new surface with ease. The blinkers come off for this one today and over the past three years Stewart has done remarkably well with runners experiencing this equipment change having won 31% of those starts. Again, similar to the remarks made for the above selection, no idea what exactly to expect from this one; yet, if she does hit the board today, it could be at a decent price.
Race 4: Clm 7500, One mile on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 2:30 PM EDT.
Selections: 6-7-3
(6) Native Wahoo: This daughter of Closing Argument steps up in class today for trainer John Ortiz following a convincing victory against $5K Claimers on Halloween over eight and a half furlongs. Over the course of her career, Native Wahoo has done particularly well racing at this distance, hitting the board in eight of twelve tries at a mile. She has shown good early speed throughout her career, yet can still be a bit tactical, and should be forwardly placed amongst this field which bodes well as the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a pace scenario that should favor horses on or near the early lead. Ortiz has been winning at a 24% rate, over the past three years, with runners that won their last start. Finally, it is encouraging to see Jimenez (19% win rate in routes this year) accept the mount once again.
(7) Katie the Cutie: It appears that trainer Robert Pincins is hoping that a drop in class will suit this daughter of Afleet Express after previously not showing much against $10K Claimers in her last two starts. She has posted a decent record at the mile distance (eight for fifteen in the trifecta) and does possess decent early speed which could help her chances of hitting the board if the Pace Projector proves to be accurate. Over the past three years, Pincins has posted positive R.O.I.s not only with runners racing in claiming races but also with trainees running in route races and on dirt. Her best speed figures at this distance should make her competitive versus this field.
(3) Sunrise Countessa: I wasn’t particularly impressed with the rest of this field, so I decided to include a bit of price play underneath to liven things up. The Tommy Short trainee has done alright this year, albeit against mostly weaker fields than what she’ll face today, having finished in the trifecta in nine of her twelve starts so far. Additionally, she has hit the board in nine of her thirteen attempts at the mile distance which is somewhat encouraging. However, her running style is that of a deep closer which could leave her at a disadvantage versus this field, although she will likely be hard charging down the stretch late. If she remains around her 15-1 ML odds, then that could be enough to warrant inclusion as an underneath play in all exotics.
Race 5: Alw 50000s, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 3:03 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-5-1
(7) Ghost Story: This son of Ghostzapper drops in class today for trainer James Baker after having finished a clear second over a sloppy main track at Churchill back at the beginning of the month. Thus far in his career, Ghost Story has finished in the exacta in four of his five starts at Churchill and has hit the board in all three tries at eight and a half furlongs. The projected early speed in this race is a bit suspect and while Ghost Story’s best efforts at this distance have come over sloppy tracks in off the turf affairs, he still has shown enough in his other efforts that he will likely be racing midpack at the halfway point of the race before trying to move up and challenge for the lead as the field turns for home. Baker has been winning at a 15% rate with route runners this year but more importantly boasts a 33% win rate thus far at Churchill over the course of the fall meet.
(5) Raising the Flag: This son of Tapit makes his first start for trainer Mike Maker since being claimed at the end of last month from Steve Asmussen. Although he has yet to stretch out beyond seven furlongs, Raising the Flag’s pedigree is loaded with stamina so the increase in distance should be no issue for this colt. Additionally, he showed decent early speed in his most recent start and should the projected early speed to his inside fail to fire in this race, Raising the Flag could be in an excellent position to inherit the lead and dictate the pace. His most recent work over five furlongs on the Churchill training track was incredibly sharp and it appears he is coming into this race in fine form. Finally, it’s 17% across the board for Maker and Gaffalione as the trainer boasts that win rate for these categories: first start after being claimed, first time attempting a route, first start after breaking their maiden in their last race; while Gaffalione has been winning at a 17% rate in route races this year.
(1) Trappezoid: This one is simply a price play underneath as it is somewhat unknown what he’ll do stretching out to a route for the first time in his career. However, Trappezoid has drawn an ideal rail position and there is a distinct possibility that he will improve when returning to dirt today. Additionally the drop in class and the fact that Landeros is 19-5-2-4 over the past seven days helps this one’s chances of hitting the board today.
Race 6: Mdn 76k, Seven furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 3:36 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-7-2
(5) Lord Dragon: His effort at eight and a half furlongs in his last start made it fairly apparent that this son of Oxbow does not prefer routing; hopefully, a return to a sprint distance will result in a better performance today. Lord Dragon’s last work over the Churchill training track was incredibly sharp and should serve to indicate that he has since rebounded from that poor last out effort. Additionally his trainer, Jordan Blair, has done quite well when entering his runners back into sprint races following a route race as he has been winning at a 25% rate over the past three years. With a very hot jockey in Morales aboard, this one definitely has every chance of hitting the board today at a decent price.
(7) Troy Ounce: This son of Goldencents goes out today for the barn of Steve Asmussen following a close fourth place finish over six and a half furlongs on the main track here back in September. The 76 BSR that he posted in that last start was the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field and if he can improve upon that effort then he certainly will be a contender today. Asmussen has been firing at a 21% rate with runners making their second career start and it is good to see Santana (20% win rate with sprints this year) retain the mount.
(2) Come On Gerry: Dale Romans sends out this first time starter today, a son of Elusive Quality. His dam has three winners from three starters including one stakes winner. Additionally, both of his two most recent works over the main track at Churchill were particularly sharp and it appears Romans has this one primed to fire today. Come On Gerry could potentially be overlooked on the toteboard and might be worth a look as an underneath play in this race.
Race 7: Mdn 76k, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 4:06 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-2-5
(4) Harvey Wallbanger: Kenny McPeek trains this son of Congrats who comes into this race following a second place effort in October versus similar at today’s distance. Early in his career, he did show some flashes on early speed when sprinting but since switching to routes he has primarily adopted the running style of a pace stalker. He is one of just two in the field to have actually contested a race at eight and a half furlongs and as such his 87 BSR is the high mark for the distance. Brian Hernandez (18% win rate with routes this year) gets the call to ride today. At 8/5 ML odds, the price isn’t great but there does not appear to much in this field that could actually beat him.
(2) Sharp Prospect: This son of Into Mischief actually draws the rail position today for trainer Joe Sharp which could be fortuitous as thus far the rail has been winning at a 23% clip. It will be interesting to see what Sharp Prospect can do today stretching back out to a route but also tacking on another half furlong to the furthest he’s ever run thus far. Sharp though has been pretty good over the past three years with runners making the transition from sprint to route races as he has won 19% of his past 204 starts. Additionally, Sharp has been posting a 22% win rate thus far in the Churchill fall meet.
(5) Booby Trap: This one was included simply as he might be a nice price today. He didn’t show much in his only start over a mile on the turf back in September at Churchill but Maker has done fairly well with runners making the transition from turf to dirt (18% from 297 starts). Additionally it is encouraging to see Gaffalione (17% win rate in route races this year) accept the call to ride. Finally, as a son of Hard Spun there is a definite possibility that this one could take to the dirt with ease and Booby Trap will certainly reward those who back him if he remains at or around his 8-1 ML odds.
Race 8: Clm 50000b, One mile on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 4:36 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-1-5
(7) Cabin John: This son of Gio Ponti goes out for trainer Larry Rivelli and while he does make a major step up in class today, he has been one of the more consistent runners in this field over the course of this year. Additionally, he has fairly good early speed and if many of the runners in this field who are either transitioning from turf to dirt or stretching out to a route distance for the first time don’t fire or take to the surface or distance then Cabin John could potentially get away with an early lead and quite possibly take this field gate to wire. Over the past three years, Rivelli has done exceptionally well with runners making their second start off of a layoff (28% win rate from 183 starts) and although Cabin John has yet to race at Churchill, the addition of a veteran Churchill pilot in Geroux (24% win rate with routes this year) should certainly help his chances of hitting the board today.
(1) Ebben: The Steve Margolis trainee has not shown much at all in each of his past three starts contesting sprints at the $100K Optional Claiming level so perhaps a stretchout to a route distance, albeit a one turn mile, and a massive drop in class could help this son of Trappe Shot get back on the board today. Ebben’s running style is primarily that of a midpack pace stalker but in a race devoid of a lot of early speed and given he has drawn the rail today, he could be a bit more forwardly placed than he has shown in the past which might help his chances of hitting the board. Over the past three years, Margolis has been firing at an 18% rate when making the transition from two prior sprint starts to a route start. This one could be there at a decent price as a potential underneath play.
(5) Fascilitator: The barn of trainer Mike Maker sends out this son of The Factor looking to try a dirt route for the first time in his career today. Although his running style of a closer potentially puts him at a disadvantage due to the projected pace scenario for this field, he could potentially be in line for a sharp effort in his third start off of a layoff following a particularly strong last work over the training track at Churchill last week. The pedigree doesn’t exactly stand out for a successful outing when routing for the first time on dirt, but Maker has done fairly well when transitioning a horse from two prior sprint starts to routing in his next outing (17% win rate). It was just too hard to trust a number of the other runners in this field and thus even though the 7/2 ML odds are a bit short, Fascilitator gets the call here as an underneath play.
Race 9: OC 100000n2x, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Fillies Three Years Old. Post Time: 5:06 PM EDT.
Selections: 8-3-2
(8) Mylady Curlin: There are a number of runners entered into this field that have shown decent early speed in the past but Mylady Curlin appears to be the fastest of the bunch and will likely be sent straight to the lead with Albarado aboard. Although today’s effort certainly marks a step up in class for her, Mylady Curlin has proven she can handle the distance and has also won over this track which bodes well for her having a successful day today. There is a possibility that if she can get loose on the lead, she potentially could take this field gate to wire, though if she somehow gets caught in the stretch, she certainly is game enough to battle back and still hit the board. Over the past three years, Cox has been winning at a 32% rate with runners attempting their second route effort. Finally, the last two works that this filly posted over the main track at Churchill have been brilliantly sharp which should make her the one to beat today.
(3) Dessert Honeys: This Eddie Kenneally trainee convincingly won her last start at this distance and class level versus several of these same foes last month at Keeneland. In that most recent effort, she sat back early on before sweeping past her rivals down the stretch and blowing them away with an eight and three quarter length victory at the wire. If she can build upon or even repeat that effort in which she earned a 91 BSR then she will be exceptionally dangerous versus this field. Her most recent work was fairly sharp and Kenneally has been firing at an 18% rate with runners making their start off of a layoff. Lanerie (20% win rate at Churchill during the fall meet so far) gets the call to ride, having been aboard when she broke her maiden here at Churchill last year. If Dessert Honeys remains around her 5-1 ML odds then she certainly will offer up value especially if she wins today.
(2) Beach Waltz: Legitimately just curious to see what this daughter of Treasure Beach can do as she makes just her second lifetime start on dirt and first time routing on dirt today. While she does drop in class today exiting a Grade 3 turf race in her last start, almost all of her prior turf efforts have not been great. However, Maker has been hitting at an 18% rate with runners making the switch from grass to dirt and it is good to see Gaffalione (22% win rate this year with E/P type mounts) remain onboard. This race actually appears to offer a bit of class relief for this filly and if she can handle the surface switch, at 12-1 ML odds, Beach Waltz is worth a look playing as an underneath in this race.
Race 10: The $100,000 Grade 3 River City Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on the Turf, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 5:36 PM EDT.
[All selections for this race were provided using a Good to Yielding turf course when handicapping the course conditions for this race. No selections are offered should the race be taken off of the turf.]
Selections: 8-3-5
(8) Sir Dudley Digges: Although he may be best known as the winner of the 2016 edition of the prestigious Queen’s Plate at Woodbine, this son of Gio Ponti is not without his merits when racing on the turf. Last seen finishing a close third behind Arklow in the $100K Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup at Ellis Park, Sir Dudley Digges has been given a bit of a breather since that August effort; however, losing to a horse that won the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3), finished second in the Sycamore (G3) and then most recently rounded out the superfecta in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) is nothing to be ashamed of. In a race where there are numerous question marks surrounding a number of the runners in this field (distance, preferred running style, form, etc) Sir Dudley Digges has been remarkably consistent primarily racing as a midpack stalker regardless of the distance or surface. And while he has yet to capture a graded stakes victory on the turf, if given an ideal trip then he could potentially steal this one, given his affinity for the Churchill turf (three wins from four starts). Maker has been firing at an 18% rate over the past three years with runners making their first start following layoffs greater than 90 days. Finally, it is a great sign that veteran Kentucky jockey Corey Lanerie (19% win rate with stalker type mounts this year) gets the call to ride. At 8-1 ML odds, it would be hard to ignore using this one on top in all exotic wagers.
(3) Mr. Misunderstood: One of two entrants in this race for trainer Brad Cox, the 8/5 ML favorite goes out seeking a bit of class relief today and looking to avenge a disastrous performance in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland last month. Mr. Misunderstood is a perfect three for three at Churchill over the course of his career and whilst nine furlongs may be a bit sharp for him, he has hit the board in two of his three tries at the distance. While this son of Archarcharch doesn’t exactly have blazing early speed, few in this field possess any early speed at all, Mr. Misunderstood could find himself fairly forwardly placed with only his stablemate in front of him. That scenario combined with the series of mid to high 90s BSRs that he’s posted in his last several starts makes him particularly dangerous here. Brad Cox has done phenomenally well over the past three years with trainees racing on turf as he has won 29% of his last 986 starts. Additionally, it is certainly encouraging to see that Geroux will remain onboard as he has done fairly well with Mr. Misunderstood this year. While this gelding has every right to win this race and very well could walk away with it, his ML odds are just too short to endorse as the top selection for this race.
(5) Big Changes: The other entrant for trainer Brad Cox, this son of Midshipman has won his last five starts, though today’s race will certainly mark a major test in class for him as he has yet to contest a graded stakes race on turf. However, Big Changes does have experience both over the course at Churchill having hit the board in all three starts here as well as at the distance as he has finished underneath in both attempts at nine furlongs. Big Changes could end up being the de facto pace setter for this race especially if the Ward trainee continues to fail to show the good early speed he possessed previously in his career. As such Big Changes could find himself alone on the lead and while he does have decent early speed, it is quite likely that his stablemate, Mr. Misunderstood, will be fairly close behind, stalking and waiting for the opportune moment to strike for the lead. Big Changes most recent work over the main track at Churchill was fairly sharp and it would appear that he is coming into this race in fine form. While it is a bit concerning that he loses his primary rider in Geroux, his replacement jockey in Leparoux is certainly not a downgrade. Finally, Cox has been finishing in the money in 60% of his past 586 starts with runners that won their last race and thus if Big Changes can handle the class test today and withstand the likely numerous challenges to his lead, then he could hit the board at a decent price today.
Race 11: Mdn 76k, Seven furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 6:06 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-9-11
(5) Frolic More: The Dallas Stewart trainee is one of just a handful in this field that have prior racing experience and while he finished third at this distance and class level in his most recent start, Frolic More is one of the classier runners in this field and that alone should give him an edge over many of his rivals. Additionally, if this son of More Than Ready can regain that early speed he displayed in his career debut, then he will certainly be a threat against this assembled field. His most recent work was fairly sharp which bodes well for his chances of having a successful day today. Finally, Lanerie (20% win rate in sprint races this year) gets the call and this is very encouraging to see as over the past 60 days he has won with 33% of his mounts for Stewart and posted a $6.10 R.O.I. in doing so.
(9) Laughing Fox: This son of Union Rags will be making his first start for trainer Steve Asmussen today following a disappointing debut at Saratoga in August for Ron Moquett. Today’s start marks a slight drop in class for Laughing Fox and if the three plus months off under the tutelage of Asmussen have done him any good (his most recent two works should be good indicators that he is in good form coming into this race) then this colt could be worth a look in this race. Over the past three years, Asmussen has been winning at a 21% rate (from 402 starts) with runners making their second career start and his preferred rider, Ricardo Santana (20% win rate in sprint races this year), gets the mount today.
(11) Run This Town: Trainer Brad Cox sends out this first time starter, a $475K purchase by the Zayat family last year at the Keeneland September sale, to race today. A son of Union Rags, Run This Town’s dam produced three winners from three starters and his pedigree suggests he should have no issues handling the seven furlongs. Cox, over the past three years, has posted 22% win rates both with first time starters and with runners debuting in maiden special weight races. Finally, Leparoux (20% win rate thus far during the Churchill fall meet) gets the call to ride today. At 5-1 ML odds, Run This Town may be worth a look as a possible inclusion for an underneath play in this race.