Let’s crush this closing day card and get a piece of the Pick Six mandatory payout.
Fade me.
Race One: 12:45 post – Claiming 20000 7 F 3YO Fillies
6-5-1-2
The first race on today’s card is a rather wide-open affair of 3YO fillies. #2 Dreaming Diamonds has been popular at the claim box attracting the attention on five prominent trainers in 2019. She is a need-the-lead type that has the talent to wire this field, but she should have some early company from #5 Blue Eyed Girl, who may be a little quicker. It’s entirely possible that #3 Spin to Gold will join them by injecting some additional early pace, setting this race up for a closer. #6 Miss Harry ran a clunker in her first race in her new barn just six days ago and has been wheeled back by trainer Angel Montano against this weaker group. She only needs to revert back to her late May 2019 form to get her picture taken today. It should be noted that #1 Went With the Wind has been facing much tougher fields in her career and runs her second career race at this level for trainer Steve Asmussen. I think she is a bad ML favorite but she has every right to be in the mix.
Race Two: 1:14 post – MSW 95K 1 1/4 Mile 3YO&Up
2-5-1-6
This MSW for 3YO&Up certainly attracted a wide array of contenders. #1 Gorgeous in Rags is the lone filly in a race against the boys, but she has a year’s maturity over four of her rivals. She ran a career best race just three weeks ago over this Churchill track and looks to be improving. #5 Fireball Shot is the senior member of this group at 5YO, and his propensity to finish second should be noted as he looks like the type that just doesn’t want to win as evidenced by his seven second place finishes in sixteen races at the maiden level. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he picks up his eighth second place finish today. I have some interest in the FTS #2 Autumn Ruler for 25% trainer Al Stall. Curlin sires 13% first time winners and this one has been taught some gate manners in the morning workouts. If the tote-board is live, fire away as this group has no world-beaters.
Race Three: 1:43 post – MSW 95K 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
4-3-7-6
#3 Red Sorrell has been made the 7/2 ML favorite and it will be hard to beat him. He hasn’t been earning many checks, but he has always been close at this level and his 6/19/19 workout shows he has the screws tightened for this one. #4 He’s Stylish has been extremely popular at the windows being bet to favoritism in four of his six career starts. This is his second turf jaunt and he is a 4YO with a year’s extra maturing. Today’s the today he graduates.
Race Four: 2:13 post – Claiming 50000 1 1/8 Mile 4YO&Up
7-2-6-5
#7 Rocky Tough certainly embodies his name against this field of claimers as Asmussen drops him down a level after beating tougher here at Churchill just seven days ago. It looks like Steve doesn’t mind exposing him for another paycheck as he owns and trains the most likely winner in this spot. #6 Hollywood Critic could have a little to say about that as he ships in to Churchill, a track he is 4/4 ITM lifetime. I could certainly seeing this Diodoro entrant getting first jump on the early leaders down the stretch and making Rocky Tough earn it today. The longshot I am most interested in is #2 Iconic. He’s a first time gelding after the claim off of Dale Romans and his 6/12/19 workout is pretty sporty. I could see this one showing some guts down the lane and getting Corey Lanerie in the irons is definitely an upgrade.
Race Five: 2:45 post – MC 75000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
10-3-5-8
Seven of the twelve starts in this race are first time starters and, honestly, none of them impress me. #3 Diamond Crazy is coming in for her 3YO debut off of a seven month layoff and her morning workouts indicate she should be ready. She’ll still have to improve a bit to get her picture taken today. #10 Sweet Addison looks like the most likely winner and she gets Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons for the first time. She had a rough start and ran four wide for most of her last race while chasing two next out winners. Ricardo won’t allow that today.
Race Six: 3:18 post – OC 100000n3L 6 F 3YO
1-3-9-7This OC 100K sure drew a tough field of 3YOs. #9 Nifty ran a great race in his first Churchill effort on 5/24/19 proving his Oaklawn success was no fluke. He is definitely facing the strongest field of his career, but he belongs with these. #7 Distant Shore would be a popular winner as he is owned by the Churchill Downs Racing Club. His running lines went sideways when he shipped to Presque Isle on the all-weather surface on 5/20/19. He could rebound here for Tom Amoss, but I hear they are having problems keeping weight on him. #3 Real News switches back to the main track after running several good races on the turf, including the Penn Mile on 6/1/19. I’m going to fade him because of the surface change, but he could win. #1 Pyron had a rough trip in the Chick Lang but still lost by less than two lengths. A cleaner trip here gets the job done.
Race Seven: 3:50 post – Allowance 97000n1x 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
8-4-11-7
Wherever you land in this race, be sure to get the price you want as this field is wide open with half of the horses making total sense. #4 Ry’s the Guy and #7 Haunt have both been good recently, but do we really want either of these on top as they both are trying the sod for the first time? Ry’s the Guy has the better pedigree for the turf, but I usually don’t bet horses doing something new for the first time (with the exception of the lone speed in today’s third race). #11 I Can Do Anything is going to take some money in this spot based on his flashy Churchill win on 5/27/19, but he might need to improve a little off that effort and he is going two and a half panels farther. Those are reasons enough for me to fade him. #8 Battle of Memphis hits this race right between the eyes. Trainer Mark Casse has him in the third start of his form cycle, gets Florent Geroux up, and the horse is doing exactly what he has been bred to do: turf routing. I think we may even catch a price better than his ML of 4/1. If so, he’s my play.
Race Eight: 4:22 post – Kelly’s Landing Overnight $120K 7 F 3YO&Up
3-7-1-9
The scratch of #8 Warrior’s Club dramatically changes this race. #1 Uncontested will surely be the post-time favorite, but I can’t swallow his last two races and he hasn’t shown that he particularly loves Churchill. #7 Petrov and #9 Transatlantic Kiss catch a huge break in not having to worry about Warrior’s Club closing kick and they may be able to rate just enough to get the win. Of the two, I prefer Petrov. All of that said, I am going with a mild upset with #3 Control Stake. This is his fourth consecutive start over the Churchill strip and he hasn’t exactly gotten a clean run yet. Santana should be able to get the position he needs from the three hole, sit chilly, and run them down in the stretch. At his ML price, he is the play.
Race Nine: 4:55 post – Allowance 104000nc 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
2-12-8-1
This salty allowance race looks to be a match race between two track veterans. #2 Undrafted absolutely loves Churchill Downs and it doesn’t appear that this gelding has lost a whole lot at 9YO. He has a favorable draw for his running style and he gets good friend Corey Lanerie back up. #12 Om is probably the classiest runner and his solid second place to World of Trouble in the Jaipur indicates he is fit. I had my doubts about him at 6F at Belmont and I think the 5.5 F is even worse for him.
Race Ten: 5:26 post – Debutante $125K 6 F 2YO Fillies
7-6-9-2
It’s going to take some type of effort to beat Steve Asmussen’s #7 Magic Dance in this rendition of the Debutante. She absolutely crushed a good MSW field here at Churchill on 6/7/19 that included next out winner Josie. Let’s face it, these are juvenile fillies, so improvement is not out of the question, but I can’t see a scenario where the others catch up to Magic Dance in just three weeks.
Race Eleven: 5:59 post – Bashford Manor GIII 6 F 2YO
10-1-4-8
The Bashford Manor shapes up in a very similar fashion as the Debutante because ML favorite #1 Phantom Boss looks like a monster. Again, it’s going to take quite an effort and improvement by another to catch up to Phantom Boss, but, unlike the Debutante, it looks like we have a couple of worthy candidates. I am usually against west coast speed coming east and Phantom Boss hasn’t been asked to go farther than 4.5 F yet. Others in this field have gone that extra furlong and are worth a look. #4 Rookie Salsa has run over three different surfaces and every time he has looked like a colt with an extra gear. He was caught wide against an extremely good Fore Left in the Tremont and I especially like Angel Suarez making the trip to Churchill for him as his only mount today. #10 Rowdy Yates toyed with a MSW field here at Churchill on 5/31/19 and could have won by ten if he wanted to. I like the fact that he ran similar splits to Phantom Boss and Churchill has a tendency to be a glibber strip than Santa Anita. I am looking to Rowdy for the mild upset.
Race Twelve: 6:27 post – MSW 95K 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
6-9-5-4
The Churchill Downs’ meet finale is a puzzler to me as I don’t think I have been more confused by any other race in this entire meet. I suppose #4 Zip Your Lip has shown the most promise, but he is moving from dirt sprinting to turf routing, a move not often seen. I respect trainer John Ortiz, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but this move is a head scratcher to me. Asmussen’s FTS #9 Icon certainly looks well-intentioned and he fires at 19% with his FTS. I would feel a lot better if this race was on the main track as Tapit babies are just so-so on the turf. Again, who am I to doubt a top-notch trainer? #5 Alfons Walde looks like the most logical horse as he is in his third start of this current form cycle since shipping over from Ireland for trainer Conor Murphy. He just missed at this level on 5/25/19 and belongs with these. In this wide-open race, I am going to take #6 Fireball Jon. He is a lightly-raced 4YO against juniors and he has yet to unleash his pedigree over the sod. Jockey Gabriel Saez surely had his choice of several in this race and he stayed with this improving horse for a reason. In addition, who wouldn’t love to see the Rigney hearts in the final Polaroid for the Churchill meet?