Churchill 10-31-2018 by Hunter Ulwelling (@hunterandhorses)
Race 1- 1st #9 Hero’s Welcome looks the most promising even after only one career start, earning a 72 Beyer number. I am curious about why his career started later than everybody else’s, but as long as this class drop works to his benefit, it won’t matter.
2nd #3 Fra Mauro let me down last out at Keeneland, but I am big on horses on class drops, and with Geroux in the irons, I am confident things can go better this time with Cox’s training. I do wonder how the horse will take to the surface, (No starts or workouts that show).
3rd #2 Courage and Honor has a third place on this track before and now a class drop, and Brian Hernandez Jr is doing a very good job so far with 38%. Hopefully race start #8 can be the charm.
Race 2- 1st It took #1 Flash N’Dance a while to break her maiden, but I really like her last race and I think this is a good spot for her. Her Beyer numbers have gone up, and she is starting to get the hang of racing.
2nd #2 Kantastic has ran second six out of fourteen starts, so we know she can do it again. Most of the time she has been the chalk running second, and she has one race on Churchill- one second place.
3rd #6 Bella Verde has been all over the board performance wise. I am hoping she will improve on this much needed class drop.
Race 3- 1st #2 Drop Kick has been popular in the claiming box for good reasons. This lightly raced Power Broker colt doesn’t lose by large margins, only off the board twice, and both of those finishes were fourth places. The horse is a consistent runner.
2nd #4 Will’s Pioneer needs the class drop, but comes from a very impressive family being a younger brother of Cairo Prince, he was a $500,000 purchase. Lightly raced, only five starts.
3rd #3 Nuclear Option is a hot mess on paper. The layoff’s and inconsistency concern me the most in between every three races, but is now on a bit of a class hike. I do trust Florent Geroux to give this one a good ride.
Race 4- 1st #1 U.S. Currency is a homebred for the Low’s who has four races and $45,680 in earnings. Not too bad, and a nice little break so this horse should be fresh. I think that the cutback in distance will work to U.S. Currency’s benefit.
2nd #5 Mo’s Song has had some decent works, first time starter for Kenneally/Lanerie. Excellent pedigree, the dam didn’t do much racing, but certainly cannot go wrong with an Uncle Mo out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. $160,000 purchase price.
3rd #6 More Mojo has sure had a lengthy layoff, and an even bigger purchase price to earn back. The siblings of this filly have turned out to be impressive, and this fillies works have been average at best, but I think she just needs an out.
Race 5- 1st #2 Wild Will ran a good race last out losing by a neck, and I think race sixteen can be the charm. This horse has ran second five out of sixteen starts, and hasn’t been off the board at Churchill yet.
2nd #9 Math Major’s price tag has been cut in half. Second start, an easier track, and Hernandez Jr stays aboard. A decent Beyer number was good for the performance. His works aren’t great, but this isn’t a stellar field either. It’s really anybody’s race.
3rd #1 Jefazo has stellar bloodlines- but hasn’t ran up to the hype or the $300,000 purchase price. The connections cut the price tag in half, going back to Churchill, let’s hope that his cheapest race of his career can be the lucky one.
Race 6- 1st #2 Grandpa Knows Best is on a class drop and is 2/3 on Churchill’s surface. Definitely been racing in some tough spots this year as it looks the connections were Triple Crown hopeful.
2nd #3 Awesome Times Two is coming off of a win at Indiana Grand, and is also fresh. Trainer John Ortiz has been having a good year.
3rd #8 Come On Dover was running well and then got put in over his head. Now he goes back to a softer spot and looks much better running with this field.
Race 7- 1st #4 She Love Me has a couple of starts under his belt, and his last race was much improved. Has been gelded since last start, Landeros aboard.
2nd #7 Jazz It Up hasn’t raced since September 6th and has average work outs. The only new thing, is the horse is running on dirt for the first time. Zayat Stables homebred trained by Brad Cox.
3rd #11 Clench might even need more of a class drop than this one- Last race he sort of gave up midway through the race, returns back to this track. Santana Jr and Asmussen team up for this one.
Race 8- 1st #3 Nantucket Red has certainly seen some incredibly stiff competition. This race might not be much easier than her last few have, but she is going to try the Churchill turf course with Jose Ortiz.
2nd #5 Bridaled Temper is trained by Casse with Geroux aboard, and is a consistent runner which always helps us as handicappers. She has banked much of her earnings running second and I know she can do it again.
3rd #4 Cured By Kitten has only raced twice- not giving us much to judge her off of. But the Ramsey’s homebred filly hasn’t disappointed in her two races, one second, one win.
Race 9- 1st #1 Shangroyal is fresh coming from Kentucky Downs, and is trained by Mike Maker. A lot of layoff’s here, but also an impressive purchase price of $400,000 shows that this horse has some work to do.
2nd #6 It has been a while since we have seen Copper Bullet, comes off of one lengthy layoff. We can count on Asmussen having his runners ready, and prior to the layoff, this horse had a really good thing going for him.
3rd #7 Midwest Justice is a hard trying gelding no matter where he runs. He has been put up for a signficantly higher price tag here and that is obviously going to make it tougher, but I think he will hit the board.
Race 10- 1st #7 Native Wahoo looks to be the best out of this bunch for Matt Shirer. Comes off of a second place finish at Keeneland which is really the stiffest any of ladies have faced recently.
2nd #9 Seeking Bull has a second place here at Churchill, but looks like she prefers Oaklawn or Prairie Meadows. She is more than capable of running second with Hernandez Jr on her.
3rd #5 See The Bird has yet to hit the board here, but comes off of a win at Belterra. She has six thirds, and with her performances lately I think she can get another third.