A special thanks to Neil for subbing on today’s.card the last time he subbed at laurel he had 16 dollars won on 20 bet with 3 winners
also check him out on twitter at @augustus_neil
Churchill Downs: Sunday, Nov. 4
Breeder’s Cup has passed and we’re left with morning-after coronations, excuses, and retirements. That said, hope it was a great Breeders Cup for everyone with more highs than lows, more great rides than disappointing ones, and a couple a stars to follow in the future….
Race 1: 10-8-5-1
Because we have Breeders Cup hangover, the best thing to do is keep drinking…#10 Nine Martins makes her first start for Al Stall – has a speedy dam, sold for 50K as a yearling (debuting for 15K is a bit worrisome) – and most importantly has 2 gates works which are her best showing. #8 Lake Girl makes a very significant call drop, gets on dirt, and her journeyman jockey stays. We’ll go with #5 Full Steam to round out the tri, off a very steady work pattern. #1 O’Bernadette, bet in higher class debut, drops significantly, shortens up.
Race 2: 7-5-1
#7 Hymn to Inanna looks like she was claimed to run in spots like these. Protected off the claim, form is sharp, excellent work on the 31st, fires. #5 Faith Healer was too close to the pace last out, and will drop and make a more significant run late today. #1 Bronze Charm could go back to back off impressive maiden win and two strong works.
Race 3: 7-10-6
#7 Fault Line gets a more experienced rider, who will use his run more judiciously, gets there. #10 Mr. Macfadden seems to be getting the hang of it, each of his last 4 starts he improved position in the lane, next progression gets him closer. Have a feeling #6 Burciaga regresses off gut-wrenching last.
Race 4: 9-3-6
#9 Mjolnor a favorite angle at play here – premature move last out, jock stays. Knows what’s under him, times it right. #3 Silver Shield will be coming, nice work since the last indicates they may ask for a bit more early. #6 Love Sick Kitten has a habit of being thereabouts but not winning, happens again.
Race 5: 6-4-1
#6 So Aristocratic gets points for consistency, like the maintenance works since last, will stalk and go. #4 Shezappealing the o for 3 at Churchill is not appealing – but were at higher levels; has been competitive in NW2L claimers, will be again. #1 Moolah Schmoolah finishes up a chalky tri.
Race 6: 12-6-9
#12 Dictator drops coming off a wide trip at Keeneland, sits outside, finishes and gets up. #6 Wings Up second time starter from the younger Casse (who’s off to a really good start) should have gained valuable, and most importantly applicable, experience in debut. #9 He ’s a Climber continues to improve – especially like the last work, gathers a share.
Race 7: 11-9-8
In a formless race, #11 Gambler’s Choice looks awfully tough off the maiden win, which was achieved in start 4. #9 Zip Van Winkle take another drop, has been competitive with better, will be tough here. #8 Laughing Levi should improve off the last Court stays, should get a share.
Race 8: 5-1-7
In an allowance that has many stakes horses, #5 Great Wide Open looks awfully tough if he repeats the last two. Great work since the last, shows he retains his edge. #1 Sir Dudley Digges looks very formidable on the return to the grass. #7 Conquest Panthera likes completing the tri; nice work since the last, looks to complete the tri here again.
Race 9: 4-8-6
#4 Astrollinthepark a favorite angle applies here – premature move in the last, jock stays. Knows what he has under him now. The 59.1b 5/8s work earlier this week jumps off the page. #8 Vertical Oak has the class, consistently runs well wherever placed. #6 Lucy N Ethel the poster child for the checkered career, multiple trainer changes, like the move to Cox, above average works, steady pattern.
Race 10: 6-9-7
#6 Midnight Shine improves on the cut back to 6 furlongs. Lives at the level, 2 wins this year for Hernandez. #9 Cha Mono consistent check getter since the layoff, has back class, likes Churchill. #7 Coleman Ricky wins by the length of the stretch or is off the board, the drop screams infirmity, but it may not matter against these.