Welcome everyone to my weekly contribution here to the Daily Gallop, as we prepare to take down another weekend of Churchill Downs!! Last week I winged it for the most part due to life getting in the way, but no excuses- bad days happen to everyone. So far this week I have gone 4:5 3 times and 5:6 twice so, I want to say I am reading the form good, but now it is back to Churchill and it is a whole different animal down here!!
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
It looks like as of writing they are calling for sunny day, should be FAST/FIRM
Race 1 7F- Dirt
Nice race to start the card off as the early speed should be between 7 QUEST FOR FIRE and 5 FIREHORN. The 2 SWITHER’S SHORTCUT should take a lot of money and going strictly by BEYER figures is probably the horse to beat, but, if the pace scenario unfolds like I envision, this gelding may find himself in the middle of the pack and it could be anyone’s race. I think the 1 CADRON FLATS is interesting but the small class increase does not leave me excited at a 3-1 ML but this is the first out for the gelding so I would feel foolish missing on that angle. I plan on watching the 4 SOUTHSIDER with Landeros aboard, who started well last out, and was a late runner. May need to be closer to the lead than he prefers but at this price I will take a chance if the tote action holds.
Thoughts:2-4-3-5 Longshot: 4
Race 2 5.5F- Dirt
2-year-old race here for the fillies with only 2 having ran before. The money here is going to go on the 2 AMERICAN INDY and the 7 THOUGHTFULLY. First AMERICAN INDY- is a PHAROAH Filly with A.P. Indy on the bottom who’s lightly tested DAM is 33% with first time starters. Mark Casse is 16% on debut and hard to bet against with this pedigree. THOUGHTFULLY is a Tapit Filly with Seeking the Gold on bottom out of a DAM who is also 33% with firsters. Both commanded huge dollars and probably go 1-2 in this race. If I am looking for a price though, I like the 6 PRODIGY DOLL a little bit, out of Shanghai Bobby. Its unfortunate that Paul McEntee is so cold with 2-year-olds and first-time starters, but I would need probably 15-1 to consider a wager.
Thoughts:7-2 Longshot: 6
Race 3 8.5F- Dirt
First and foremost, this race seems to have a lone speed type set up with the 3 SWEET CAROLINA. If Santana Jr can coax an easy lead here and most likely save ground, there is a chance this filly can go the distance up front. Without this pace pressure I do not see how 2 ELUSIVE RIDE, or 4 LEMON CHILL are able to close the gap as their past performances would dictate. I think if I had to choose a closer here LEMON CHILL would be my first pick as she should be a little closer earlier but could have to weave around tiring traffic. The question mark for this race is the 7 SHE’S HOT TODAY. Could find herself running in the 2nd flight behind the 3 early and if so, could get first move on the 4 LEMON CHILL. With Lanerie on the mount, would not surprise me at all if he tries an earlier type of move to get a jump and get home in a price.
Thoughts:3-4-2-7 Longshot: 7
Race 4 6.5F- Dirt
This race feels as though it is wide open and can be anyone’s guess for the win today. I don’t agree on the morning line of 6 GOOD CLEAN FUN as I think the horse will take a lot of money, especially with a decent enough debut but the Stall barn wins a lot on 2nd times outs and going from special weight to claiming levels. It does seem like a huge class drop for an unproven 3-year-old from Spendthrift though. He is newly gelded so if the price is decent enough worth a shot. The horse I want to see today is 3 SIETE LEGUAS, as the horse should be up front early and on the cutback from the Oaklawn Park performance, with another logical improvement could win today. It helps that Contreras is winning 25% of his cutback horses so this is a good angle for him. This is a tougher field, but if the price is right…….7 WHITE WOLF, another odd morning line but given this pace situation could sit in a pressing trip and be ready to pounce in the stretch. If this race is too fast early, this gelding can be eliminated by the half pole if Bowen is not careful. I think 2 TAINO HOUSE if improves on this start could be a good value approach if the 6 and 3 are bet down. Adds blinkers today and given that this is the other Stall barn entry here, I do not expect much float from the 5-1 ML.
Thoughts:6-3-7-5 Longshot:2
Race 5 6F- Dirt
5 TOUCHING RAINBOWS comes in with 2 months off but a solid workout plan for Phil D’Amato’s barn. A lot of back class here despite taking the summer of 2019 off for this 7-year-old gelding. Returned in February ran well and then has regressed both times out after in decreasing classes. Has 5 wins in 9 attempts at this distance so hard to toss, but there will be no value here. 4 HOONANI ROAD will need the best recent performance to win today if 5 TOUCHING RAINBOWS fires. Prefers the fast surface and is 5-10 at this distance. I like that Martin Garcia takes the mount for Catalano today, as a different jockey could find themselves in a pace battle early, if Garcia can keep him relaxed, probably best for something underneath or as a B in an ABC type ticket. 1 CHARGE THE LINE, with the rail trip needs to go early and with a lot of speed pressing down, any bad start will doom today. Santana Jr should be ready to fire and get this horse on the lead where he has won before at this level. Skeptical of the 9-2 morning line, but that last out effort could allow us a little value on the tote. Has had some decent competition recently, so one that without saying it is a relief, feels to be getting a little here. 2 P R RADIO STAR took to Churchill Downs well last out but feels like a spot to let him beat me, as after that monster effort, I would expect a little regression here based on past performances.
Thoughts:5-1-4 Longshot:7
Race 6 8.5F-Turf
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A nice little turf allowance thrown into the late pick 5 here, and looking at it quickly, seems that 7 FANCY LIQUOR for the Maker barn has the upper hand here, even at a short price. I expect the race to setup like a duel early with 7 FANCY LIQUOR and 9 EXTRAORDINARY battling for position. Both stand to be short, but given the early speed both have shown, without others vying early, it will important to see changes as the program currently lists Geroux on both mounts. An inexperienced jockey could tire one of these horses out in a bad situation and allow the pace to fall. If it does then 10 DEAN MARTINI should be sitting just off and ready to run, unfortunately for me and what I like DEAN MARTINI just broke maiden last out on the 8th attempt and is facing winners here for the first time. At a 3-1 ML, I would hope this floats up to give us value, but I am not going to hold my breath. 6 VINTAGE PRINT is an almost 2-million-dollar Chad Brown horse, so on turf, for Chad, we know what to do. Single the horse and move on, right? Given where the horse has raced at a probably 9/5 or worse, I just cannot single. I am going to try and beat given that I think the 10 DEAN MARTINI will be more forwardly placed and the race could fall into Graham’s hands. 2 PLEASECALLMEBACK has a huge price tag on his head and has not really ran well. Like the switch to Kenneally who wins 25% off the claim and Lanerie in the saddle should be huge today.
Thoughts: 7-10-2-9-5-6 Longshot:2
Race 7 7F- Dirt
Oh man this is a good race! At first glance the 2 GOLDEN NOTION seems strong in this spot but given the recent competition I could fade thinking that the others have had tougher fields. 2 GOLDEN NOTION should get the lead and have his way with the field, depending on how 1 HIDDEN TALENT breaks on the layoff. It is at this point that I start looking for a horse or two that could benefit from a stalking trip. 4 YOUNGEST OF FIVE has been progressing nicely for the Hough barn and comes in today with a nice set of works including a sharp 4F. I can excuse last out effort as it was first time facing winners and look for the gelding to come roaring down the lane late. It is hard to like 4 YOUNGEST OF FIVE without liking 5 SOARING BIRD. This horse seems like the type that you think wants longer, gets it, and then feels like wants shorter. Probably a career underneath type of horse at 1 for 18 but worth a mention if you like the trifectas. 7 HERSH had a nice trip last out but was never really a threat in that spot, same distance today but could be a softer early pace, so one to watch out for here I think as Lanerie stays in the saddle for what has been a hot Barkley barn.
Thoughts:4-7-2 Longshot-7
Race 8 8.5F- Dirt
For a random Thursday card this is an expensive field of 3-year-old fillies going two turns. I am thinking the 1 AURELIA GARLAND is going to take most of the money here from the rail, with good stalking speed, but I am not sold on the rail trip getting behind in this small field. Pace figures if the race goes slow, she should romp this field at a very short price. I am going to go devils advocate because I can for a minute. Martin Garcia is going to send 4 ELUSIVE MOLLY who just ran at Gulfstream 2 weeks ago and looked pretty good before tiring. Adds blinkers here, she might have needed a race to find her stamina, but at a 5-1 ML. If the value stays, I will be using her. Arguably has the best pedigree for this race but, that is subjective so I will try to not make an argument here. Under these, I think 2 IMPECCABLE STYLE and 6 SEATTLE SLANG are most likely for minor awards but if 3 MORNING GOLD takes to the dirt she has some back class here but with the layoff McPeek is not a high average trainer.
Thoughts:4-1-2-6 Longshot:3
Race 9 8F- Turf
We go back to the turf for the finale of the sequence as the fillies and mares go a mile. Scratches help this race a lot, as admittedly, I am finishing this race Friday morning. 4 TIZAHRA has ran close to par for this level and should be the controlling speed today with Landeros aboard. 7th attempt to break maiden is a bit concerning at a short price, but takes the blinkers off today, so perhaps this is a change she needed. 6 BROADWAY LADY another short price on the morning line, but she needs to improve today to win. A slight increase in class today could be too much since she could not win at lower levels so an interesting spotting for the Casse entry. 7 MORE THAN UNUSUAL is an interesting first-time starter for Brad Cox who is winning 16% with first timers and 40% with Lasix. If the price is right, could be worth a short in a field that have proven they do not like to win.
Thoughts:4-6-5 Longshot:7