Churchill Downs Saturday June 22, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves procrastination, biting off more than he can chew, , and Camptown Races. His fiancé is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 12:45 post – Claiming 40000 7 F Turf 3YO
4-1-6-7
This evenly-matched $40000 claimer should offer a good betting opportunity if you would like to take a stand against the ML favorite #1 Tobacco Road. Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr look extremely dangerous if you are willing to draw a line through his effort in the Pat Day Mile on 5/4/19. Asmussen has tinkered and experimented with his form enough to take a shot against him. #6 I’m Busy looks to be a notch below the others in this race, but he has been gelded since his 5/25/19 race and will be a serious threat to wire the field if he can revert back to his form at Oaklawn Park. #4 The Sicarii lost his last race to a next-out winner on 5/27/19 at Thistledown, but this is his third race of this current form cycle and his 6/15/19 Churchill workout indicates that screws may be tight.
Race Two: 1:14 post – MC 40000 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
8-5-2-3
This MC 40000 is full of droppers looking to graduate. #5 Sandville makes a ton of sense as the most experienced runner in the field, and horses like him have a tendency to wake up on their first major drop in class. #2 Shanghai Superfly experimented with the turf on 5/24/19 and had a horrible trip for Kenny McPeek. Julien Leparoux stays aboard today and drops to his lowest level. I have some concerns about there being enough early speed in this race. #8 Pioneer Dancer is obviously bred to like the slop and he is trying the main track for the first time today. I respect the turf efforts, but I think this is where he belongs. Horses don’t usually move up when they leave Chad Brown’s barn, but this is likely the right move.
Race Three: 1:43 post – OC 100000n3L 7 F 3YO Fillies
1-4-3-5
We don’t often see track favorite Calvin Borel on the ML favorite at Churchill Downs anymore, but here we are. #3 Whoa Nellie has been the favorite the last two times out and she even won with a difficult start on 5/23/19. There is no reason to think she won’t be in the mix again today with a similar effort. #4 Istan Council has been knocking on the door lately since moving to the Kentucky circuit for trainer Larry Jones. She has faced several next out winners in her running lines and an off track should help her chances. #1 Free Cover moves up the ladder a bit, but stays sprinting. I love Miguel Mena stating aboard, her lifetime performance at Churchill, and a previous win on a sloppy track. If you look close enough, he can see Covfefe in her running lines on 4/6/19 three races back.
Race Four: 2:13 post – MSW $95K 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
17-2-1-5
All of today’s races have scratched off the turf which has decimated this field. The MTO #17 Morning Social looks super tough now that he gets his chance to run on the main track. He has considerable experience over the slop and I’ll likely single. I could make a bit of an argument for #2 Parade Field as he has a lot of main track experience, but he hasn’t run that great on the slop. He is a first time gelding, so you just never know how they’ll run after the ultimate equipment change.
Race Five: 2:45 post – Claiming 20000b 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
5-7-10-1
Another wide-open race on today’s card, this race has a very lukewarm 4/1 ML favorite #7 Cimarron. She’s a favorite at the claiming box and she has been bouncing around the backside her entire career. She won at the 16K level here at Churchill on 5/9/19 and she certainly fits today. The ML illustrates how evenly-matched this field is, so I am going to take a look at another recent barn-changer #2 Murika. She is running for Norm McKnight for the second time and she nearly won at the 16K level in her 5/11/19 barn debut. I look for considerable improvement in this second race and I expect her to reverse the tables on the winner of that race #10 British Invader.
Race Six: 3:18 post – Claiming 30000n2L 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
4-5-10-7
#4 Light of the World graduated just two weeks ago over a sloppy Churchill track on 6/8/19. I normally don’t like betting maiden winners facing winners for the first time, but this isn’t the strongest group and the sloppy surface will surely help. #5 All Around broke his maiden over the slop and is worth considering if the track hasn’t dried out by this point in the card. I originally wanted #10 Into a Hot Spot, but he hasn’t liked either of his off-track experiences. A new barn isn’t going to change that. . His second place half-length loss to Catholic Boy in the GII Dixie on 5/18/19 is likely good enough here. Joel Rosario maintains the mount the late running style of Admission Office fits Joel like a glove.
Race Seven: 3:50 post – Allowance 97000n1x 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up F&M
3-6-8-9
#6 Meadow Dance looks extremely tough on paper but she hasn’t run in seven months and lost ground over a sloppy track coming home. She is definitely the classiest in the field, but today may be the day to beat her coming off the bench. #8 Urban Insight has run pretty well since returning from a five month layoff, but an off track may be a little concerning. She is definitely worth a look. Though the first two off-track efforts weren’t all that great, #3 Devilite is bred to love it being out of a Distorted Humor mare and Tapit as her daddy. She’s improving as Asmussen is gunning for the training title.
Race Eight: 4:22 post – OC 80000b 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
3-2-6-7
#6 Boxwood has two very solid sloppy track efforts but she is coming in off of a five month layoff. As the ML favorite, she certainly is dangerous, but I’ll play against her in her comeback as Kenneally is only 11% with this type of layoff. #2 Clever Serve has run quite well over the off track and she really likes the Churchill surface as evidenced by her 7/11 ITM career statistics. Getting Santana back up surely helps her chances. #3 Divine Queen catches a weaker field than she normally faces and she has the most class in her running lines. She is also 2/2 over an off track.
Race Nine: 4:55 post – OC 62500n2x 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
17-7-18-19
Washing off the turf opens this race up for the MTO runners and #7 Funny Duck. We all know what the Duck pulled off in the 2018 Pat Day Mile and he lucks into similar circumstances with another off-track opportunity at Churchill Downs. There is no reason to think that he won’t be dangerous in this spot. Off the MTO entries, I prefer #17 Own Agenda. His workout lines show that he is in good form since a very nice second place over a muddy Keeneland track on 4/12/19. #18 Midnight Tea Time and #19 Rocky Tough could both get it done as well.
Race Ten: 5:26 post – Roxelana Stakes 120K 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
10-2-3-1
#2 Covfefe blew the doors off of the Miss Preakness in eye-popping form on 5/17/19, but I think the cards are stacked against her today. She may bounce off of that effort and she has yet to demonstrate that she can run over a sloppy track. We know #3 Honey Bunny loves the off track and trainer John Ortiz has her on five race win streak. She hasn’t faced the likes of #10 Mia Mischief and Covfefe. Mia Mischief is tactical and loves the off-track and her five morning workouts since her GI Human Distaff indicate she won’t bounce.
Race Eleven: 5:58 post – MSW $95K 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up F&M
3-11-2-10
A full field of maidens closes today’s card with 3/1 ML favorite #3 Double Axel looking head and shoulders above the rest. She got off to a very slow start in her debut on 5/30/19 and rallied the entire race to finish a credible second. Her morning line works since that effort are both quite good and I love the fact trainer Brian Lynch worked her from the gate, which was her nemesis in her debut. She’s a card-closing single for me. The FTS #11 Risky Mandate could be the goods for trainer Tom Amoss. Watch the tote-board for early steam and adjust accordingly if so.