Churchill Downs Saturday June 15, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves My Old Kentucky Home, light brown hair, old folks at home, and Camptown Races. His fiancé is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Do-dah, Do-dah…
Fade me.
Race One: 6:00 post – MSW $95K 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
5-12-4-7
I liked the #13 He’s Stylish in this spot, but the he didn’t choose to draw in, so maybe I was wrong about the surface change as he could have run. #5 Declined looked really good at this level on 5/27/19 here at Churchill and any improvement at all in the second start of this form cycle is likely good enough to get a Polaroid tonight. #12 Spirogyra has a lot of changes tonight and I’m not sure how to take them all in. Leaving Brad Cox’s barn is usually a positive angle, but new trainer Michelle Lovell is a solid horsewoman. She’s changing surfaces, moving up in class, throwing the blinkers on, and gelded Spirogyra for his first start in her barn. I love the workout from the gate on 6/1/19, so maybe… just maybe.., throwing this much mud at the wall will work. We can’t ignore #4 Life Mission, but Gaffalione climbing off tells me all I need to know. Lastly, the FTS #7 Tohui should be the best of the new shooters. He is a Distorted Humor baby owned, bred, and trained by Luis Jurado. One would think he could have flipped this horse for some cash, but it looks like he chose to hold on to him and the lack of workouts tells me that he may be hiding some talent. Watch the tote board on him.
Race Two: 6:28 post – MSW $95K 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
9-4-1-3
#1 Private Message has been mad a very lukewarm ML favorite in a wide-open race of maiden fillies. She chased a monster in her last race at Keeneland, and the running of line including Guarana is sure to take some extra play. She can win with a touch of improvement, but I am going to play against her. Kenny McPeek takes the blinkers off of #3 Web o’ Gold after what looks to be her best career effort. Brian Hernandez stays in the irons and the slight shortening up has her in the mix. #4 Doll Collection was very green in the stretch on 5/11/19 here at Churchill and Ralph Nicks throws the blinkers on her. Her last two works show a little more concentration, so that might be a winning move. I want every bit of #9 Sally’s Curlin at her ML price of 12/1. This CJ Thoroughbreds runner needs a better ride from Robby Albarado, who stays aboard for a fifth start for Dale Romans, to be a little more forwardly placed to graduate tonight, but this group doesn’t look like a bunch of world-beaters. I’ll take the bomb at any price more than 8/1.
Race Three: 6:56 post – OC 80000n3x 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
4-6-8-2
This Optional Claimer could be the most evenly matched race on tonight’s card. The ML favorite #4 Cummings is very deserving of the chalk if he runs back to his 5/3/19 Churchill race. Sure, that was a level below, but that race was never in doubt. #6 Mr. Crow is the classiest runner in tonight’s field and I can’t see a scenario where he allows Cummings to get an early, uncontested lead. My biggest worry is that his outside post will use him up too much to be much of a threat in the stretch. Still, you have to use Mr. Crow. After these two, it’s pretty wide open with #2 Loose On the Town and #8 Control Stake being the biggest threats. I’ll lean towards the front-running chalk.
Race Four: 7:32 post – Allowance 97000n1x 1 1/8 Mile Turf F 3YO&Up F&M
3-7-5-2
This allowance race came up rather salty and I could honestly hit the “all but one” button in horizontals (leaving out #8 Ellens Birthday), but why would you fade a ML 50/1? #7 Bridaled Temper makes a ton of sense if she reverts back to her late form of 2018. She was bet down to favoritism in her 2019 debut here at Churchill, so I can give her a pass. #5 Enchanting Kitten gets some blinkers on in a much-needed equipment change as she looked distracted in her 4/25/19 Keeneland jaunt. #2 Dalika is a complete wild card for me as I don’t know what to expect from her. She spotted the field a huge head start in her first American race when she hit the gate, but she closed with intention. Second-time Lasix and a better trip could do the trick for her tonight. All of this said, I like a horse “on the come” and #3 Napier fits the bill. She showed some “speed and fade” in her first start off of an eight month lay-off on 5/1/19 here at Churchill, yet still only lost by two at this level. I’m playing her back in this spot tonight, but I am lukewarm.
Race Five: 8:03 post – Matt Winn GIII 1 1/16 Mile 3YO
6-1-4-3
A short seven horse field in tonight’s Matt Winn leaves me with a very opinionated single. I am all about #6 Mr. Money in this GIII for three year olds. He completely aired the Pat Day Mile here at Churchill Downs on 5/4/19 and beat several horses that have either come back to win or run huge races in their next start. Hog Creek Hustle won the Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard, Everfast took second in the Preakness, and Mr. Money Bags won a stakes at Lone Star on 6/1/19. The Pat Day Mile looks to have been full of monster and is surely a key race full of winners. If Mr. Money falters, this race is wide open and I would look toward #3 Nolo Contesto, who has beaten Omaha Beach, #1 Limonite, an improving winner here at Churchill on 5/4/19, and a rebounding #4 Knicks Go.
Race Six: 8:37 post – Wise Dan GII 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
12-13-4-3
Tonight’s Wise Dan is a real puzzle to me as I could use any of six horses in this race and still not feel 100% comfortable. #13 Cullum Road is in the third start of his current racing form and should improve for Johnny V and trainer Mike Maker. I have some concerns of the lack of experience on the Churchill sod, but he is dangerous. The exact same thing can be said for #3 First Premio and trainer Mark Casse. I am really intrigued by the improvement #4 Hot Springs has shown in 2019. Losing by a mere three lengths to Bricks and Mortar two back is nothing to hang your head about and he gets power jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. back in the irons. I am going to play against #7 Itsinthepost off of the ten month lay-off, but his back class and Tyler Baze makes him plenty dangerous off the shelf. I landed on #12 Admission Office. His second place half-length loss to Catholic Boy in the GII Dixie on 5/18/19 is likely good enough here. Joel Rosario maintains the mount the late running style of Admission Office fits Joel like a glove.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Fleur de Lis Handicap GII 1 1/8 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
2-3-5-4
If you can convince yourself that the Fleur de Lis isn’t a match race, you will get paid tonight. #2 She’s a Julie is a recent GI winner in the La Troienne on 5/3/19 over this track and she is 4/5 ITM with three Polaroids here at Churchill. There is no reason to doubt her form, but you can doubt whether she is good enough to beat #3 Elate. She has lost to Midnight Bisou in her last two efforts, both with curious efforts from Jose Ortiz… go ahead, convince I am wrong. In this short field, Jose should be allowed to do whatever he wants unless #5 Blue Prize can keep her pinned in the pocket. Blue Prize can also win as she has shown that she relishes Churchill Downs with a 6/7 ITM and three wins. That said, she hasn’t beaten the likes of the top two even though she is a GI winner. Champagne Problems is no Midnight Bisou, Monomoy Girl, Elate, or She’s a Julie. All that said, #4 Go Google Yourself has shown some early foot in her last two starts… she could try to wire them all.
Race Eight: 9:47 post – Stephen Foster Stakes GII 1 1/8 Mile 3YO&Up
4-12-7-6
The 2019 edition of the Stephen Foster is super-impressive and I am jealous that we didn’t make the trip to Louisville so we could crash the party and sleep in Mayor Taggert’s basement like we did on Derby Weekend. Even though he is a newlywed, Brock Lance’s jealousy would have gone through the roof if I allowed The Mayor to play “big spoon” again. Enough with the love for my friends, let’s get to the race. #6 Gift Box ships in from the tricky footing of Santa Anita and looks to be loaded. Since December 2018, he has bested McKinzie and Battle of Midway (pour a little out for BOM, RIP) and got nipped by Vino Rosso in the Gold Cup on 5/27/19. For that reason, I am going to play against Gift Box because he dueled, got looked in the eye, lost, and then ships to a track he has yet to run over. #7 Tenfold hasn’t raced under the Twin Spires either, but Steve Asmussen makes Churchill his home. His 5/17/19 Pimlico Special was just that… special, as he showed some courage by splitting rivals and driving home for a gutsy win. Tenfold is a must-use for me. I see enough early pace tonight that the race should set up for a closer. #4 Seeking the Soul certainly loves the sound of that as he is 9/11 ITM at Churchill Downs with three wins. Johnny V should give him the perfect stalking trip and plenty of opportunity down the lane. #12 Yoshida will also come closing down the lane for Billy Mott. I would have loved to see a start for Yoshida between the Dubai World Cup and tonight, but we don’t have that luxury. It looks to me that America’s most versatile horse may come up a little short.
Race Nine: 10:19 post – Regret GIII 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO Fillies
4-11-5-1
I’m afraid I am not very original, but I love #4 Varenka in tonight’s Regret. Though she wasn’t made the ML favorite, I expect the public is going to pound her at the windows and she will go off as the post-time favorite. Trainer Graham Motion graduated her on 5/11/19 at Belmont Park where she closed into very pedestrian fractions, leaving me to think that she has a lot more talent than it appears in the form. In fact, Motion likely feels the same as he entered her in three consecutive stakes before getting her picture taken. There is no shame in losing to the 2018 version of Newspaperofrecord, which she did twice, and she looks like the class of the field. My biggest fear is that #11 Princess Carolina gets an easy lead and walks the dog home.
Race Ten: 10:48 post – President of the UAE Cup 100K 1 1/6 Mile Arabian 4YO&Up
I’m a Thoroughbred handicapper. No trotters, no quarters, no Arabians. Good Luck… I have to skip this race.
Race Eleven: 11:16 post – MC30000 6 F 3YO&Up
5-11-9-8
Much like the first race on tonight’s card, I really wanted the #13 Copper Fiddle, but he didn’t draw into the race as an AE. #9 Game Day Decision was made the ML and I can certainly see why, but it says a lot about the quality of the field when a 0/6 lifetime ITM horse gets the ML nod. I’ll pass. #11 Cadron Flats is of some interest to me in the first off the claim from Ron Moquett. Trainer Robert Hess throws the blinkers on and runs him back at the same level, but now he sports some eye-catching works. I, however, will take a different horse throwing blinkers on for the first time. #5 Shorely showed a little pace in his first race, but, like a lot of others, faded coming home. Methinks the blinkers are the trick as trainer Joe Sharp likely gave him the first race on the sod before throwing him on the dirt. The large drop in class is a bit of a concern, but this son of First Samurai should relish the dirt.