Churchill Downs is back for their fall meeting, which will take a brief two hiatus next Friday and Saturday, as the Breeders’ Cup rolls into Lexington, Kentucky. There are 10 races on the program this afternoon with a pair of optional claiming/allowances as the co-features (Races 8 and 9). There was a good amount of rain yesterday, taking Thursday’s races off the lawn. I’ll handicap the turf races for both surfaces.
Race 1: $10,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, F/M, 1 Mile: My Picks: 6-1-5
I’m not getting very creative here, but Delachaise (6) makes a lot of sense in the opener. She won with NW2L at this tag last out on this course, and now moves up in class. She doesn’t find herself facing a strong bunch for the condition, and she’s made solid improvements in her two starts since being claimed by Asmussen. Decorated For Gold (1) drops to a more appropriate level after taking on significantly better horses in allowance company at Kentucky Downs last out. Her last two races on the main track have been decent, so she may offer a little value while returning to dirt. Double Oaked (5) was second at this level two starts back and third with better at Keeneland most recently. She only has two wins in 32 starts, but has been in the money in 17 of those starts (53%). She makes a lot sense underneath, but she’s not going to be on my Pick 5 ticket.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile and 1/16 My Picks: 1-4-3
The theme of this race is quality over quantity, as there are six well-bred colts that cost a combined total of $3.2 million dollars. I’ll side with Twenty Twice (1) who gets a rail draw and adds blinkers for his fourth start. His two dirt tries at Keeneland were good at this level and his last race already produced a next out winner (Obsessed). Emperador (4) was a million dollar baby who made it to the track for the first time last month. He met two horses that day that ran monster races, beating him by 11+ lengths. His figure was still strong enough to be right with this group and his pedigree suggests that two turns will be his bread and butter. Pledgeofallegiance (3) has run two decent races in maiden special weight sprints and now he stretches out to two turns. He’s built a decent foundation, and also adds blinkers for his first two turn trip.
Race 3: $16,000 Claiming, 1 Mile and 1/16: My Picks: 3-7-6
This is a wide open claiming event featuring some solid claiming horses that have gotten out of the habit of winning. Millwood (3), on the other hand, comes off a win, albeit, versus lesser at Keeneland. He was protected in an 8K claimer, as he was coming off a layoff. He was in good form last winter and showed that he can string some good races together. Candy Carlos (7) went off form this spring at Oaklawn, but returned here after a summer freshening and ran a solid race with better. His fall firm here last year was good enough to win here and he should sit a perfect stalking trip with his tactical speed. December Seven (6) is likely to be the dedicated pacesetter in this race. McGee’s horses fire well when fresh, but he has given up the lead in eight of his last nine starts, and hasn’t finished first in two years.
Race 4: $50,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile and 1/8, Turf: My Picks: 10-9-4 (T) / 9-3-2
This is a wide open maiden claiming contest on the grass. I’m looking to the outside and Ahnaf (10) who was claimed out of a similar spot last out. He was a little dull, but it was his first start in three months. He moves to the Tomlinson barn and gets a rider upgrade to Joe Rocco Jr. Oak Room (9) was claimed for a modest 15K by Mike Maker for the Repole Stable last time out. He clearly saw something that made him think that this guy would perform well on the grass. Gafflione taking the mount is a plus. Punch Hard (4) improved in his second start with maiden special weight company at Tampa this spring. He’s been away since April, and now drops to maiden claiming for Kelsey Danner. This is a strong trainer angle for her and this one could easily be overlooked in the wagering.
I’ll keep Oak Room (9) on my ticket on top if this race goes on the main track. I’ll add Pintxos (3) who ran well enough in his one dirt start last year and Marsac (2) who has some decent dirt form as well.
Race 5: $50,000 Claiming NW2L, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-3-2
The Feature (6) should get a good set up in this spot after rallying hard to finish second in this level last out at Keeneland. He has been slowly improving, and now he finds a field with a lot of speed and fade types. Elusive D’Oro threw in a clunker at Kentucky Downs last out while making his first start in ten months. He drops and should be a factor as he’s in for the tag for this first time. Peruvian Boy (2) has been knocking on the door at the condition, finishing behind a few of these last out. He loses the blinkers, which could help him relax a bit instead of pressing a potential hot pace.
Race 6: $40,000 Maiden Claiming 2yo, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-9-4
Seven of the nine babies in here are making their debut for the $40,000 tag. I think the experience will be an advantage for Roman Pharoah, who moves to the dirt after an even debut on the grass. His works on the main track are good enough and Diodoro hits with 38% of his maiden claimers coming in from maiden special weight. My Boy Gus (9) comes in from Hawthorne to make his debut. He has been working well enough in Chicago and his trainer must think he can run a bit if he’s shipping in. Clearly Mad (4) drops after moving up in class and stretching out to the flat mile in his second start. He makes sense in the exotics.
Race 7: $40,000 Claiming, 3yoF, 1 Mile and 1/16, Turf , My Picks: 2-7-6 (T), 7-2-8 (D)
My Aunt Mims (2) was claimed for 25K two starts ago and instantly rewarded her new connections with a win at Lone Star on the grass in NW1X company. The NW2X company gets pretty salty on this circuit, so this spot, facing only three year old fillies, makes a lot of sense. She is a threat on either surface. The same can be said for Bankruptonthebeach (7) who has closed nicely in her last two tries with optional claiming/allowance company on the Indiana Grand turf course. She was stakes placed in the slop at Gulfstream earlier this year. Siamese (6) was thought to have some talent when making her North American debut here last month. She drops after a dull showing at Keeneland two weeks ago against tougher. On the dirt, Erv’s Wrench (8), who has been running exclusively on the main track, certainly can be upgraded at this level.
Race 8: Optional $62,500 Claiming/NW2X Allowance, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs, My Picks: 6-8-7
This is a strong field for the condition, as the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers of a strong heat at this level return to face some stakes winners. I’ll give the edge to lightly raced Sir Alfred James (6) who should sit a great trip on or right off the front end. The best horses will be coming from behind, so he might be able to get the jump on them. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s undefeated in two tries on this course. Ohio Derby winner, Dean Martini (8) cuts back to a sprint after four straight 9 Furlong tries. His best races are when he can sit back and make one big, and the cutback may help that style. Tough Love (7) has been right there at this level in his last few starts. He’s had some gaps in his races, so this will be the first time he’s run three straight races without a layoff.
Race 9: Optional $80,000 Claiming/ NW3X Allowance, 1 Mile and 1/8, My Picks: 5-2-8
Silver Prospector (5) went off form while working the Derby Trail this spring. He beat Tiz The Law on this course as a two year old in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. He’s been away since May, but has been working up a storm for his return. Multiplier (2) drops to optional claiming allowance company after multiple tries with graded stakes foes. Toss his last in the Charles Town Classic and he fits very nicely in here. Lord Dragon (8) had a three race win streak snapped last out when moving to this level for the first time. He runs better at two turns and could be a factor underneath here.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 1 Mile 1/16 Turf: My Picks: 6-5-4 (T), 10-12-3 (D)
The finale is a competitive race for two year old fillies if it stas on the turf. Temper Time (6) could be the beneficiary of a paceless race. She’s paired her last two Beyers on the grass, and unless one of the first times shows a lot of speed, she could inherit the front and walk early. Amortization (5) for Chad Brown, exits a decent try at Belmont where she rallied into fourth, while going off as the 5-2 favorite. She’s bred to get two turns, which she’ll get for the first time today. Saranya (4) was a close second in her debut, while taking a good amount of money last out. She’s one of many with a shot.
On the main track, I expect Sweet Mary Lou (10) to show more than she did in her debut. She got the experience and now will go to two turns, which should help her out. Little Clementine (12) has decent works on the dirt for Saffie Joseph. He brought her to Saratoga, but had a little hiccup, but now appears ready to debut. Princess Theorem (3) ran well on the grass in her debut. Her form should translate to the main track.