CHURCHILL DOWNS
Friday, November 15th
Race 1:
PUNISH (5/2)
Flashed excellent early foot against tougher (Mdn Clm $30k) on 9/21 at Churchill Downs, and bravely battled through the lane to hold a secondary placing. She was well over her head at Keeneland (Mdn Clm $50k on 10/11); but did manage to poke her nose in front, turning for home, before fading by a long distance. Punish’s most recent effort (3rd Place – Mdn Clm $15k @ CD on 11/02) was respectable enough, as she tracked the leading group and then made a healthy bid for the lead (with ¼ mile remaining) — only to ‘flatten out’ in the stretch. If up to performing like she did on 9/21, then the rest of this field will be seriously pressed from the get-go. Major Player.
MESANGE (2/1)
Appears to handle the Churchill Downs dirt surface — along with this class level of $15k — just fine, as she fought her way to a valiant third-place posting (half-length from the winner) in her latest maiden tussle. And though off the board at 29/1 on that particular day, she does merit a nod of respect with today’s 2/1 ML mark.
VEGAN GOES BEST (4/1)
Making her third start of the year, after resuming from a nine-month break, VEGAN has displayed a fair amount of early lick in her five-start career. Her lack of stretch stamina is evident — and obviously a concern — but she has every right to launch forward and thump these non-winners.
X-Factor = HOT N SWEET (6/1)
Has been racing with stronger company throughout her 0-24 span (3 seconds & 5 thirds), so this sizeable class drop might jostle the resume.
Race 2:
REPLETE (3/1)
Exhibits, by reference to his last two outings, a strong and sustaining kick towards the Churchill finish line. He has shown the ability to win along the inside rail, as he has with the outside pathway (and in solid clockings – 6F 1:09.58 and 7F 1:23.15). Look for another positional placement as they turn for home. Top Contender.
HIDDEN RULER (9/2)
Comes off of a dynamic performance, though overtaken by today’s rival EXTRA MEDIUM, in his recent duel to the wire at Keeneland on October 19th. Twice tried on the Stakes front at Oaklawn, HIDDEN should give backers a trifecta-like run for their money.
EXTRA MEDIUM (9/2)
Made a long, strideful blitz from the rear (11/1 odds) to nip HIDDEN RULER in his previous jaunt. May be compromised by that particular running style — if the ideal pace scenario does not unfold — but nonetheless, he seems to have some upside talent.
Race 3:
MY GIRL ROCKET (4/1)
Might very well possess the best front-end speed burst, if Borel and Wiggins intend to tactically send for the early lead. And provided that MY GIRL can gain a cozy position — without too much pressure before the bend — then she may have plenty left, as they straighten for home. Potential runaway winner.
AS FAST AS YOU CAN (3/1)
Unable to impact the Superfecta position in three starts this year, but the class level of those running lines were significantly higher than today’s $7,500 tag. AS FAST’S recent blowout spin on Nov. 6th (:47 ⅘) suggests that she could be set for a winning charge, and her one win with one second from four starts at Churchill is certainly encouraging.
(No further endorsements for this race.)
Race 4:
RULER OF THE NILE (5/2)
Owns a perfect record of 3 wins from 3 starts on the Churchill grounds, and easily retains the more lofty body of work; as he was stakes tested over the summer in New York, beaten 5.75 lengths in the $105k Take of the Cat. RULER did not disappoint, two races back, when heavily favored (*.70) in a similar class level event: 1.75 length score in 1:08 ⅘ (6F). The distance of today’s mile may be a slight query, but if Jon Court can get his mount to comfortably settle within those early stages, then RULER may be very hard to deny.
CANDY CARLOS (3/1)
Once this charge clears the far turn and aligns with the final stretch drive, a strong and persistent rush takes over. Tough and gritty (right down to the final sixteenth), CANDY will likely have a major say with this heat’s exacta/trifecta outcome.
Trifecta/Superfecta Fillers:
Solomonic, California Swing, and Animus
Overvalued at 7/2 ML:
Mineyerownmalone