I want to take a second to say thank you to those at The Daily Gallop who do all the leg work in creating a wonderful platform for us, horse racing lovers, to express our opinions and thoughts to those who are interested. I also appreciate them reaching out to me asking to do Fridays at my home track. I can only hope that I can give out a few winners and perhaps a little bit of info for those looking to add another angle in their capping. Lets get right to it.
Race 1-
#6 Baytown Bear 20/1: We will get to the nuts and bolts for this one here in a second but lets go over some pedigree. Upstart, first group of runners to hit the track, was a very successful runner who won two graded stakes. More importantly, the mom is 3/4 sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. The bloodlines run deep and gives me no reservation to think that this one cant be successful first time on the track. As far as the AM workouts, they have been quick, including 3f drill from that gate :35.1. This horse, who might be up against a couple of beasts, could provide a MONSTER price to start off this extremely competitive card. NOTE: Trainer puts up a bug jockey which I think could probe to be vital here. Perhaps the weight break could be all this one needs to get a leg up. Watch this one on the tote board.
#9 Spicy Marg 3/1: I’m going to continue to go to the Ward well (good or bad) with his babies. This one, out of Into Mischief (who we know has been extremely successful) has been lights out in the AM. In fact, this one worked with the horse that ran yesterday and made that filly look like she was running up the track. Out of these two nice fillies, this is the one thats the best. 3f drill :34.1 is just stupid. Jockey didnt move, horse didnt get a nudge, horse changed leads herself. She looks to be the real deal and we know what Ward can do with babies, albeit being cold recently.
#1 Cowan 7/2: There is no question, top to bottom, this is the filly that will prolly take the majority of the wagering. $30,000 stud fee brings $185,000 in the ring, for this filly out of Kantharos. Has been nothing short of awesome in the AM which includes a sneaked in work on 5/17 AT CD. Santana gets up for Asmussen who finished a tough 2nd yesterday in this same type of race with a horse VERY similar to this one.
LONGSHOT: #4 Really Slow who is 15/1 on the ML is out of Congrats (A.P. Indy) who has had a couple of debut winners at the MSW level with an average payout of $22.90. This filly has been one of the more impressive runners in the morning at the CD training track. The 3f drill in :35 flat on May15 tells me this one will be one of the runners they’ll have the chase down on the front end. If the favorites struggle, perhaps this is the one that could take them gate to wire.
Race 2-
#7 Oro de Tejano 3/1: Sometimes you have to take what they give you even if it is the chalk. We landed on the chalk here for Dio who claimed this one 2 back and moved up a billion classes and ran out of his shoes. Drops back down to the respectable level where this one should be tough to beat. For a route race, this pace seems to be quite quick, which will fit this one like a glove as he’ll be leading the first flight to attack as they go around the far turn. We know when Dio puts up his man Cohen, they are ready to rock and roll. The 90 speed fig LTO seems a little “out of line” but you see that since one has been in the 80’s for the better part of a year with an 87 being a top. Only other horse to come close to this is the 6 horse who, for Sharp, ran a 90 LTO but we dont know what we might get from a Sharp runner. I’m gonna take the proven one, moved to a winning barn, 2nd time with barn, trainer puts up main jockey and single this one albeit being the chalk.
Race 3-
#3 Hardly a Secret 7/2: Although recent success with this gelding has come while routing, the cutback to the one turn sprint might actually be a better fit for this runner. You can see back in 2019, this one ran against better then what he’ll face in here and had a lot of success while trying this 7f distance. This gelding is 9-2-3-0 at CD, 4-1-2-1 at this specific distance, both should prove extremely important in here. We’ve yet to mention the fact that this runner perhaps gets the biggest upgrade in jock upgrade of any of them moving from Martin Garcia to Jose Ortiz. Hartman, prior to shipping did get a 4f drill in at OP, :47.3. No excuses for this runner getting the perfect trip behind the speed and one of the best riders in the game on top.
#8 Shakes Creek 15/1: I’m not quite sure why this horse is 15/1. Either way, I think this horse for Garcia is really live. You can see at the bottom of the PP’s that this one ran extremely well at the 7/8ths distance both at Ellis and CD. As a matter of fact, against the 20k level (very similar to here), this runner ran an 89 speed figure in a win on 9/15 of last year at CD, at the distance. Sprinting is where this one does his best running, period. Pedroza has been on before, that run at TP against a solid group of AOC25’s. I do give an excuse to this runner LTO having worked 5f :59.3 just a week prior to that effort off the layoff. More freshened now (no works shown but word is has been on track), back to the sprint distance and correct level. Price play.
#7 Top Brass 8/1: This gelding could be the (?) of this race. Seems to me that this horse has a bad run, then a good one, then a bad, so we are sitting on a good run but more importantly, he’s had his best efforts when he’s been close to the lead. So who does Sadler chose to jump on today? Paco Lopez. One of the best, if not the best speed riders in the game. Sadler did get one of his notorious slow 1/2 mile drills AT CD prior to this effort. I do believe, although not in great form, we could see a top effort (93 speed figure 2 races back) from this one if Paco can get him settled on or near the lead.
Race 4
There are a million people that are better cappers then myself. In this race, I dont know how you can possibly cut this down to only use a horse or two. Ward has a FTS at the MCL 10k level with a 9/2 line? Stall has a FTS who comes from one of the hottest dams right now with debut runners and a SLEW of runners who have seen the track multiple times with very limited success. Nearly impossible for me to pick a winner in here.
#5 Judge Parker 15/1: This is where I landed in the race that I’ll call “Who Fucking Knows” race of the day. It’ll be very common that your winner will come from the horse that will get absolutely hammered on the tote board and in doubles. There is always that “they knew” runner at these levels at CD. The reason why I selected this runner is because of the effort LTO after the trainer change from Moquett to Chapman. In four previous starts, this horse was beaten a total of 92 lengths. When this gelding got in the hands of Chapman, he added blinks and BOOM… more speed and ran on nicely beating the rest of the field by 3 1/4 lengths. Small time guy, Chapman, is 30% with runners that he runs for the 2nd time, 20% off this type of long layoff and 25% when moving runners up a class. Spi is 2.74 being out of Curlin, Dam spi is 1.15. I think the blinks brought new life to this runner and I’ll give him a shot here against a field of a bunch of questionmarks.
#11 Taino House 5/1: Stall isnt typically known to have runners win at first asking very often, ALTHOUGH, stats say hes 20% over 133 debut runners with a +ROI. Stall is 25% with MCL runners, 19% with MCL’s who are debuting for a tag and he does put up his KY guy in Mena in the irons. We will have to keep an eye on if he keeps this mount as he took a spill yesterday. Per Jose Santos Jr’s twitter, he said that Mena was ok after taking the spill. Either way, this gelding comes from a dam whos produced 3 winners from 3 starters with 16.3% FTS winning at first asking. A lot to like here and I know Stall loves winning under the twin spires. Live.
#12 Rivers of Lite 7/2: I’ll tell you all over and over, so many times that you’ll get sick of it, I’m a BIG sucker for horses making a major change and we find ourselves looking at this runner who’s gonna run as a first time gelding and adds blinks. Horse hasnt done anything wrong in three starts besides getting to the winners circle. Hartman has done a great job putting this one in at the correct levels and its paid off. The 73,79,73 speed figures in three starts cant be matched by anybody else in here. I do believe (if this is the horse that gets crushed at the windows), perhaps with the blinks added, he could clear early from the outside post and the track has played quite well to the speed. The one to beat in here.
Race 5-
#10 Sweet Carli 2/1: BEST BET OF THE DAY will be the overwhelming chalk. This filly for Brad Cox will face the lowest level she’s ever faced in her life while being in pretty decent form. Garcia rode her LTO, that being a win against the N3L 16k level at OP. This filly is on a four race uptick according to speed figures and capped at the 85 LTO, which is 8 points better then the expected winning figure at this level. I would expect that Garcia will follow the flank of the runner directly to her inside and show he ability and class as they turn into the lane. No price but should be free space to cap the early Pick5.
Race 6-
#2 Autumn Jett 8/1: We talked previously that Stall isnt known for FTS, well here is more in his wheelhouse. We have a first time gelding who tried the grass twice and the efforts werent what they were wanting out of this one. A $210,000 purchase at the KEESEP sale, the expectations were high for this one. Now drops in for a tag for the first time, moves over from grass to dirt which pedigree says shouldnt be an issue whatsoever, first time gelding as we said, maintains the blinkers, I do believe we will get a whole different animal today then what we’ve seen previously. Classic work tab from a Stall runner, slow and easy. 5f 1:02 flat recorded on May9 just prior to moving over to CD for this effort. I do believe that Stall is testing the water with this one but I believe he could’ve pressed all the right buttons and we will get a solid price.
#9 Fantastry 9/2: The only other horse I’ll use is this one for Kenny McPeek. This colt was last seen routing on grass at GP, only beaten 2 3/4 lengths that day against the MCL32k level. Takes another plummet here to the 20k level and returns to dirt but perhaps the backclass will serve him well against this weak group. I like the move back to Ortiz, who rode the first two starts of his career, for familiarity. Horse was immediately shipped to CD and got a work in prior to this effort, that being a 5f 1:02.4 easy work. Kenny is a great horseman and spots them well. Connections alone could prove enough to beat this field.
WANT A LONGSHOT??? A far reach but to fill exotics, #12 Whiskey Chaser 20/1 is trained by William Denzik who is a friend of our family and I can tell you he’s not entering a horse unless he knows they can run well. LTO, this runner ran 2nd to a runaway winner but beat the rest of the field by 4 1/4 lengths. If you watch that race back, how much further did he run compared to everybody else? Inside was better that day, and still destroyed the rest of the field. Yes, the time was slow BUT the entire card that night came up slow. A lot of excuses but there is no question that this one will have to improve to get a piece here.
Race 7
#8 Real Money 4/1: There are a lot of different directions you can go in here but 4/1 seems like a pipe dream. Two races back horse needed one off the shelf. Went out to the lead, went blazing fast and faded, albeit being beat only 1 3/4 lengths. A little more freshening in the AM in prep for the return LTO and man was it a nice performance. Gaff rode a really good race that day, saved ground early, pointed out and took them down and imo, took quite some time to get going down the lane. Got up in just the nick of time that day and now, 3rd off the layoff, we should see another uptick in accordance to speed figures again today. Parked on the outer part today but he showed he does not need the lead but will take it if nobody else steps up. Track seemed to play fair in both sprints and routes on the grass. Shouldnt be any excuses here.
#11 Fig Jelly 3/1: Unless a specific AE draws in, I think this is who will inherit the lead on the front end. Parked on the far far outside, JJ has one choice and one choice only, send and see what happens. To be honest, when you look at the form, this horse just towers over this field. He’s the only one to have a speed figure over 100 (twice), has two seconds in stakes races, has a fourth in a graded event, etc etc. The only thing you can say bad about this runner… the horse cannot seem to find the wire in front. He’s been running against much better then what he’ll face here but its hard to back a horse that is 2 for 22 lifetime with TEN 2nd place finishes. Class of the field though and needs to be considered.
#2 Pyron 12/1: I think this is the price play in here. No doubt that this one has shown more ability in dirt starts as opposed to turf starts BUT we often see Asmussen pop one of these off and pay $20 to win in these type of spots. I wont leave off when I play a few deeper tickets just in case this one takes to the grass like the race two back. Has been working extremely well over at KEE, Santana/Asmussen/Winchel team up for just a few wins each and every year. Perhaps they steal one here at a price? NOTE: I do believe this is just a prep race for a bigger event on the dirt. The turf course is a lot softer on the horse so if this one runs up the track, put in stable mail and play him back when he hits the dirt at a BIG BIG number.
Race 8-
#5 Center Aisle 6/5: This will be our single in the late Pick5. Again, another chalk 🙁 …. everybody is afraid of Brown runners on the dirt. A short priced favorite ran up the track last Saturday I believe but only a few of us know that he has this diamond. Broke fair from the 7 hole in debut but when Joel gave her a single tap on the shoulder and said “lets go” she stormed off. He wrapped her up, geared her down to a point she was almost hopping to the line. She could’ve won by 10+ but only ended up being 3 3/4 lengths. The time for that 3/4m was 1:10 flat but remember, she didn’t run that last 1/8th I’d say. She is the goods and will be near the top on a lot of peoples Kentucky Oaks Top 10’s (if not already) only if she can fend off Casual for Asmussen. I believe she is the goods and will only get better as the races get longer.
Race 9–
#7 English Affair 10/1: I didnt know where else to go, tbh. You can see that back in 2018, this was a legit horse. A winner of the Cardinal Handicap over this specific turf course was laid up in Jan2019 for a major injury. George Arnold took his time with this mare and got her back onto the track in Feb and hasn’t been seen since. I really think hes just taking his time with her. Now 2nd time back on the grass after over a year layoff, has been working well in the morning and seems to have a really nice coat by what I see from my computer screen. If she returns back to some of those 2018 efforts, she should be able to handle this field without any issues whatsoever. As we said before, horse does like CD turf 4-2-1-1 and the distance 4-1-2-0. If I am right and she is freshened and has her coat back, I could get a really nice price on a really nice mare who had lots of success against better.
#1 Summering 9/2: Literally the only reason I didn’t put this one on top was because this will be the “public horse”. Everybody is going to be on this filly. I think 9/2 turns into 2/1 QUICKLY. She’s working lights out, shes a lightly raced filly, she’s gone up against some really nice fillies on the turf and finds a pretty soft spot here in a wide open event. As I said, she is working unbelievably well… 5f :59.4, 5f 1:00.4 in her last two, back to back prior to shipping in for this event. Talamo rode a couple of live Amoss horses into the ground the first couple days of the meet, he’ll need lots of confidence and give this filly a good ride. If he does, everybody could be running for 2nd. The one to beat imo.
#8 Silver Kitten 3/1: This is a filly that’ll take a lot of play as well. Out of the famous turf runner, Kitten’s Joy, she comes in off a nice AOC score down at GP. She has the capability to win going to the front or from behind if a couple of longshots gun it. So a versatile horse in a wide open race could seem very enticing to bettors/cappers. The move by Gargan to put up Cohen is interesting, I thought. I’m not exactly sure how I feel about it with JJ, Carmouche, G Saez and Ortiz all in town yet he goes with Cohen. Either way, who am I to question Gargan who’s only 36% this year with his barn, 24% off these type of layoffs the last 365 days and a nice ROI over the past 90 days when he has a return winner to the track. I know she won an ALW event at a mile, I know she ran 2nd in the HoneyFox going a mile, I just don’t believe this is her distance. That’s why I’ll play her under, instead of on top.
Race 10-
#3 Little Red Frog 12/1: For a middle level claiming race, I believe this has a TON of speed in it. I want the horse that gets first crack at them and thats what we have here with the Maker/Ortiz duo. Its extremely unfortunate that this runner has Ortiz on it because its going to get bet and prolly bet pretty hard at the windows just because of the trainer/jock combo. When you dive into the PP’s though and watch the last three races you’ll see a common theme. Three back, you had a storm off winner (won by 12) and yet she was only 1/2 length behind the 2nd place finisher. Two back, beat the entire field by 3+ besides the winner who beat her by 6 3/4. LTO, beats the entire field by 7 1/4 lengths BESIDES THE WINNER, who stormed off and won by 5 1/2 lengths. You see what I’m getting at here? This filly just seems as if shes up against a juggernaut each and every time she hits the track. So although her PP’s dont look “impressive” she MORE THEN FITS against this group. She has some tactical speed which could help keep her close, she has the best jockey in the colony right now in Ortiz, she has a win in 2 starts at CD, she has a win and a second in 5 starts at the distance, snuck in a 5/8ths drill on May17, I dont see a logical reason why this horse doesnt fire and doesnt fire a top in this spot.
#7 Fully Aware 5/1: I think this filly needed one first time under Sadler. Horse went from MCL50 up to ALW50 at OP and was bet as if this horse was the next coming of Secretariat. Horse did not break well whatsoever LTO, thus had no chance from go. Horse ran on evenly and was beaten by 6 3/4 while never really being “in it”. I dont believe that Mojica tried very hard once he knew he had no chance which would make sense of the slew or works after that effort. This filly was seen immediately back on the track 11 days after race and worked steadily up to this point. Sadler is known for his slow works but he might be giving us a little hint with the 1/2m drill AT CD :48.1. Nice jockey upgrade from Mojica to Rosario here. Horse should be extremely tough with a clean break.
#11 Lucky Quarters 12/1: I’m gonna take a flyer on this one. You really dont know what you have with this filly as shes never seen a fast main track in 4 career starts. She showed some ability in her two starts at FG at the end of last year and beginning of this year. Has a half dozen works or so on the tab, none of them overwhelming, which is fine for this level. I cant believe that the CD track would all of a sudden change the way it has been playing the first 3 days of the meet and if it is speed favoring, Graham parked outside on a speed horse whos shown talent against similar or better, could just do the trick.
I wish everybody the best of luck!!! Lets all cash some tickets together!!!!