A lot of the racing world will be focused on Pimlico this weekend. Let’s see if we can get a couple winners here at Churchill as well.
Race 1
#3 Alittlecomplicated
This 6YO mare is a real veteran. Making career start number 42 here today, and she has 12 wins. She was claimed a couple months ago back at Oaklawn by trainer Aaron Shorter, and since then she’s run three pretty solid races. She seems equally as effective on fast or wet dirt, so track conditions shouldn’t play a factor for her. Nine of her 12 wins have come at this 6F distance. Probably looks like she’ll come from a little off the pace. Stewart Elliot rides today, and he’s also been aboard for her past three good races. So that’s a plus.
#4 Myositis Mystique
Another experienced runner here. 32 races under her belt so far. Maybe the most surprising stat for her is that she has never finished third, ever. That’s amazing in 32 starts. She’s finished first or second a total of 16 times, so exactly half of the time she hits the exacta. She loves Churchill as well. She got a good pace setup last time in the slop, and she closed strongly to get the win. I don’t see the pace being real swift in this race, so we’ll see where that puts her early on. Sometimes she doesn’t break sharp, so that’s a slight concern. She has James Graham riding her today, and he’s having a phenomenal meet so far winning at 24%.
Race 2
#2 Freedomfi
A 2YO race here, and there’s no Wesley Ward runner, so maybe it’s a wide open race? I’m going with the 2 horse in here. This son of Guilt Trip is a homebred for “Mattress Mack”, and trained by Laura Wohlers. This youngster has a pretty nice work tab. Wohlers is about 10% with 2YO runners. These races are critical that you get a good, clean break; so I’m hoping this guy is quick.
#5 Hop Kat
Trainer Eddie Keneally sends out this firster by Stay Thirsty. He as a couple nice works coming in. Kenneally is about 12% with 2YO, so that’s a respectable number. Considering that Stay Thirsty only stands for $6,000, paying $80,000 for this guy at the OBS sale a couple months ago makes you believe they think he has some ability. Jockey Corey Lanerie rides for Kenneally quite often, and they hit at 27% when here at Churchill.
#3 Tapalist
This colt is by the young stallion and former Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist. He’s got top connections in his corner, trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Winchell Thoroughbreds. The works are not super fast, but Asmussen usually doesn’t work them quick, so I wouldn’t worry about the times too much. That being said, being forwardly placed in these races is critical. Jockey Tyler Baze is known as a good gate rider, so that should help.
Race 3
#8 Summerduck
This colt is coming off a pretty sharp effort here a couple weeks ago. He sad near an honest pace, and drew away in the stretch. That race was against $20,000, so it is peculiar that they are dropping to $8,000 after that score. This is either just a really aggressive spot, or they are really trying to get rid of him. If he runs back to his last race, which I’m hoping he does, he’ll be very difficult to beat in here. Trainer Dane Kobiskie is having a great meet. Declan Cannon in the saddle today.
#6 Honor Mission
This gelding’s only two victories have been here beneath the TwinSpires. I think this distance will be perfect for him. He should get a nice tactical trip. His one-turn dirt efforts are actually okay. Jock Jack Gilligan is chilly at this meet, but he did ride this horse to a good second place finish at the Fair Grounds over the winter. Trainer Gregory Foley is not chilly this meet, he is very warm. Eight of his 13 runners have finished in the money.
#4 Rollin Smoke
If you’re looking for a deep closer, this is the one. Most of his races lately have been route distances, but I think the turn back could help him. He’s been competitive at levels similar to these, so I think he fits. Churchill legend Calvin Borel is named to ride, and he fits this horse’s style perfectly. They’ll sit at the back, look for a rail trip, and try to make one run at it. I could see this horse hitting the board.
Race 4
#7 Bluegrass Parkway
This a 3YO facing older horses for the first time. This is not normally an angle that I like, however, he has been facing some pretty good 3YOs this year. Some of them include A Thread of Blue, Marquee Prince, and Digital Age. This horse runs as if this mile and three eighths distance will be to his liking. He has no early speed, but looks like he could be a stayer and a grinder. Rider Gabriel Saez is on fire this meet winning at 28%. Rudy Brisset is the trainer.
#2 Botswana
Bentley Combs owns and trains this four year old son of Graydar. He comes out of a common race in which he beat a few of today’s rivals. He does have a tactical advantage over many in here. He figures to lay close to the pace, if not leading. I think that ability makes him dangerous in here. He’s hit the board in all three turf tries. Declan Cannon is familiar with this horse, and he’s in the saddle today.
#4 He’s No Lemon
First time against winners for this colt. He broke his maiden last time out at Tampa. That was at today’s distance, and he seemed to like it; his breeding would suggest that he would. As like many in here, he doesn’t have any early speed. Graham Motion is having a nice meet, and year overall. Chris Landeros has ridden this horse once before, and he’s the pilot today.
Race 5
#8 Mr Tickle
This 7YO gelding is coming off of two good efforts at Oaklawn. Before that he had been off for a year. His last two starts have been for trainer Karl Broberg, who is winning at 25% clip this year. He’s got good number in basically every category, including winning at 30% in claiming races. I think this horse kind of prefers some moisture in the ground, but even if it’s a fast track, I’m still giving him a shot. He looks like he’ll come from off the pace in this one-turn event. David Cohen rides, and he and Broberg are 31% together.
#10 Candy Carlos
This guy loves to win. He’s 10 for 36 lifetime, and 8 for 14 on a fast track. I don’t love his post position in here, but he does possibly have enough early speed to where he can get over going into the far turn and not be hung way wide. He’s in good form right now, hitting the board in 7 of his last 8. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez is good at placing his horses in spots that can win, he’s 20% with horses that have won their last race. Shaun Bridgmohan rides.
#5 Pear Lemonade
This guy is definitely a closer, so he’ll need a little pace help up front. First off the claim here for trainer Tom Amoss, and that’s always a solid angle. This horse also likes to win, 4 for 11 overall; and he’s hit the exacta in both tries at this one mile distance. He hasn’t raced since February, but Amoss is 29% with layoff horses, so that’s not a major concern either. Both Amoss and jockey James Graham are off to a great start at the meet.
Race 6
#8 Wild About Candy
This guy comes off a nice runner up finish at Keeneland last time out. That was off a four month break, so he could take another step forward today. He was right on the pace that day, but if the pace is quicker today, he could sit just off of it. So his position is ideal for that. His only win came here at Churchill last fall going 6F, so he likes this surface and distance. Trainer Paul McGee has limited runners, but he’s having a respectable year at 15%. Miguel Mena is aboard today.
#5 D Squared
This gelding came off a long layoff last time out and destroyed a group of maidens here at Churchill a couple weeks ago. That was his first time in for a tag, and he dominated. Steve Asmussen claimed it out of that race. Steve hits at about 20% off the claim. It looks like he could be the speed of the speed in here. All three of his dirt races are pretty decent, so if he runs back to last race he’ll be tough in here. Tyler Baze, new to this circuit, is the pilot.
#4 Ludington
Just like the horse I mentioned above, this colt comes off a dominant performance against maiden claimers. That was his first start outside of maiden special weight company, and he appreciated it. Another thing that may have helped was the addition of blinkers. Chris Hartman claimed him that day and now protects him in this spot. Hartman is very good off the claim at 24%, and he’s at 27% overall at the meet so far. Stewart Elliot gets abroad this gray colt for the first time.
Race 7
#5 Conquest Windycity
Six year old gelding first off the claim here for trainer Norm Casse. Norm has pretty good numbers across the board so far in his young training career, including 35% in claiming races. This horse has been on the sidelines for a couple months, but he’s got six really nice works on the tab, including a bullet drill most recently. He’s usually quick early, and runs his best when he gets the lead from the get go. So hopefully he’s able to that today. There is other speed to his outside, so we’ll see how that goes. He had a huge 10 length win at Churchill last fall, so we know he likes this track. Brian Hernandez is the jockey today.
#3 Fifth Title
If you look at this guy’s dirt form, it’s actually pretty good. He’s run a lot of turf, but in my opinion, he’s more effective on that main track. He’s got two wins and two seconds in 6 fast track tries. He won at 6F last time out of Keeneland. He’s also won going a mile and a sixteenth, so this 7F distance should be alright. It looks like he’ll do his best running in the latter part of the race, but I think there will be enough speed to help set him up. Ian Wilkes trains, Corey Lanerie rides.
#7 Conqueror
This is another one that has much better form on dirt than he does on turf. 11 of 14 in the money in dirt. Two of his four career victories have been at this 7F distance, so that’s a huge plus. He’s got good tactical speed, so he should be able to get a pretty decent trip. He’s got races in his PPs that are absolutely good enough to beat this group, so if he brings his A race, he should be right there. Admittedly, I am unfamiliar with this trainer, but he gets Gabriel Saez to ride, which is a plus.
Race 8
#10 Coexistence
This filly is in really good form, and 2 for 2 so far this year as a 4YO. Both of those wins are at 5.5F on the turf, just like today’s race. Trainer Joe Sharp excels in these events winning at over 30%. In fact, all of her turf tries are pretty solid, even the routes; so this is definitely her preferred surface. I don’t love the post today, but she does have some speed, so hopefully she breaks decent and can work out some sort of trip. Both Sharp, and jockey Adam Beschizza are off to a rough start this meet, so they are both due to turn things around.
#6 May Lily
I’m a little surprised by the 10-1 ML here on this mare. If she’s anywhere near that price, I’ll be using her in all my wagers. She’s been off since January, so that’s a slight concern, but she’s run well fresh before. Most of her grass races have been two turn ones, but she does have some strong races in sprint as well. She’ll definitely be coming from behind, and I think she’s the strongest closer in here. Trainer Gregory Foley is a strong 21% when going route to sprint; and he gets Gabriel Saez to ride.
#8 Pastime
This G Watts Humphrey homebred loves to settle for the minor awards. Third place seems to be her specialty. Her last four turf sprints have all been thirds, so on one hand she’s consistent, but just not great at winning. Speed figure wise she does have races that would look to be good enough to best this field here today. She’s also eligible to improve second off the layoff. She’s another horse that will do her best running toward the end. Corey Lanerie rides for the Victoria Oliver.
Race 9
#6 Baladera
Trainer Paulo Lobo drops this daughter of Quality Road to this level for the first time. She has some solid efforts against some stiffer competition. She’s closed pretty well in her last couple starts going 6F, so the extra furlong today could help her out.
Sometimes 7F can be a struggle for maiden claimers, and it turns into a stagger fest toward the end. They are reapplying blinkers today, so maybe that will quicken her up a little. Former SoCal rider Tyler Baze is up, and he’s having a nice meet.
#9 Spun Line
I’m giving this filly another look today. I picked her on top in my Keeneland analysis last month, and she ran pretty well at big odds. She showed a little more pace that day than I was expecting. She’s drawn toward the outside again, so the tactics could be similar today. There isn’t a lot of other early speed in here on paper, so being forwardly placed might be advantageous. Jack Gilligan will be riding her for the first time.
#1 Promised Fame
Took the drop to maiden $30,000 last time and that still didn’t really help. But I’m give her look at hitting the board today with this cutback in distance. I think this one-turn race could be better than her route race last time. Plus they’re adding blinkers, and trainer Buff Bradley hits at about 20% when doing that. She’s also never gotten the chance to try a fast main track, and she should get that today. Miguel Mena in the irons.