A little bit of a lite card today. Not totally unexpected, Keeneland just finished up a couple weeks ago, and with Derby weekend last weekend a lot of the upper level races were run during that week. We’ll see if we can nab a couple winners today and build the bankroll going into the weekend.
Race 1
#2 Munchkin Money
This mare has been in pretty good form her past few starts. She won two in a row, and comes into this one fresh, having not raced since March. She’s shown some versatility lately, coming from a few lengths back when the pace is quick; and last time was able to sit close to a slow pace. She faced some pretty good horses last year, including the strong NY bred Fifty Five. She looks to be working well leading up to this, and I think she’ll get a good trip in this race. She leads this field with 6 career wins. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Brian Lynch.
#5 She’s Pretty Lucky
This filly has actually had more success on dirt than she has on the turf, however, she still runs quality races on the lawn, and I think she fits in with this group. She’s also got some tactical speed, and should be able to adopt to whatever pace scenario transpires. I see this pace being fairly slow, so I expect her close. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has had some tough luck at the meet so far, 5 seconds in 8 races. But that shows that his horses are firing good efforts. Tyler Gafflione rides.
Race 2
#1 Change Direction
This guy will have blinkers on for the first time today. Trainer Rudy Brisset is about 12% with that move. I think this horse ran pretty well last time out off a four month layoff. He finished third in a field of eight, and that was his first start for Brisset, so they may have learned something about him that day. This race is a collection of a bunch of things. We’ve got horses dropping in from maiden special weight races, and we’ve also got horses jumping up from maiden $30,000. This guy has run at this distance and level, so I think if he improves a little bit this time, he’ll be right there at the end. He draws inside, so hopefully he can get a ground saving trip. Florent Geroux in the saddle.
#7 Shanghai Superfly
As I mentioned above, this guy is one of the runners that is dropping from MSW company. His last two efforts are not bad, but those races were restricted to just 3YOs, and at this point in the year it’s still a little difficult to judge how strong those races were. Ken McPeek is a respectable 24% when making the drop in for a tag. So while I definitely believe this colt has a big chance today, I’ll take a little shot against at a short price. Churchill veteran Corey Lanerie has the mount.
Race 3
#1 Miss Fahrenheit
This is not a real strong group of runners here. This 5YO mare is 0-14 lifetime, but she does have a couple of dirt efforts that could make her competitive in this spot. Her only other try here at Churchill was arguably her best race. She finished 2nd in a field of 12 against similar company. She doesn’t have any early speed, so I’m gonna need some of the others to get a little tired in the stretch, and hope this girl can run them down. She’s by far the most seasoned runner in the field, so maybe that can play to her advantage also.
#6 Have No Fear
First attempt at this level for this filly trained by Mike Maker. She raced against Louisiana bred maiden special weights her first three races, and those were pretty good efforts. Her last race, however, seems to be a head scratcher. She seemed to be a major player with the drop in class, but she really threw in the towel in that race. There was some moisture in the track that day, so it’s possible that she didn’t like that. She does have a bullet work on the tab leading up to this race. But that could just be a big “for sale” sign in hopes that she gets claimed for this $10,000. Not sure how to read this one. Tyler G rides.
#8 Ice for That Burn
Considering not many of the horses with experience in here have done a whole lot of running, I’ll throw this first time starter into the mix. Just being honest, there isn’t much to love here. Her sire Ice Box did win the Florida Derby and run 2nd in the Kentucky Derby back in 2010. If she’s got any sort of ability, she might be able to hit the board here. Andrew McKeever trains, Jack Gilligan rides.
Race 4
#6 Ginny B
All of this girl’s turf efforts have been fairly solid. She has hit the board in all five, and her two turf routes have resulted in a win and a second. She ran well at this condition going a mile a sixteenth last month at Keeneland. She draws the outside post, but it’s only a field of six, so I don’t see a major issue. James Graham has ridden her for five of her ten career races, so he knows the horse and can hopefully workout a trip. She’s probably going to be a fairly short price, but I like her quite a bit in this spot. Steve Margolis trains, and he’s having a nice 2019 hitting at 15% so far.
#5 Tula
She comes out of the same allowance race that I mentioned for the horse above. However, she didn’t really get to compete that day since she stumbled and lost the jockey at the start. Trainer Graham Motion is giving it another try and adding blinkers for this race. Her maiden breaker two back was a really nice effort at Tampa. All of her races have been consistent efforts (besides that issue last time), so if she gets a clean trip today she’ll have a great chance to win. Chris Landeros will be the pilot for the first time.
#3 Folly
This girl has won two straight, one of turf, one on dirt. She looks to have a slight tactical edge on some of the others in here, and that could make her dangerous. This is second time out for trainer David Fawkes, and as I’ve mentioned in previous write ups, the second time for a trainer is an angle that I like. Tyler Gafflione gets on, and he hits at about 17% with Fawkes.
Race 5
#3 Garey Park
This gelding looks to have a pace edge in here, which I think could be beneficial. His three previous fast main track efforts were all alright, and would make him a player in here. I’ll draw a line through his last start as he may not have liked the slop. So I’m hoping for a dry track today. Trainer Andrew McKeever is due for a win, as he is 0-22 on the year, at the time of these PPs. This horse draws well, and I’m hoping he is on or very near the lead right from the jump. Tyler Gafflione in the irons.
#1 Star Dog
He is pretty much the opposite of my top pick in here; this guy is a stone cold closer. His last race was first off the claim for trainer Thomas Van Berg, and I think he should some improvement. He has some races to go back to last year (when trained by Van Berg) that would probably be good enough to win this. He also likes Churchill, having hit the board in 6 of his 12 tries. He draws inside, so he should get a ground saving trip and try to make one run at the end. Edgar Morales is quite familiar with this horse, and he’s the pilot today.
#8 Solar Maximus
This gelding has quite a few miles on him. He’ll be making career start number 64 today. He’s been running against tougher competition, and if he brings his A game, he could definitely win this. However, he has not finished in the money in any of his five starts for current trainer Anthony Quartarolo. This horse also will do his best running at the end, he does not possess much early speed. He does get Gabriel Saez to ride, and he’s hitting at 30% so far for the meet.
Race 6
#1 V Tach M.D.
First time facing winners here for this guy. They removed the blinkers for his last start, and it was a pretty decent wire to wire score at Oaklawn Park. That was also his first time going a route of ground, so that may have helped him also. He draws inside here, and should be able to use that speed to get into a good position. Sometimes horses at this type of level struggle to pass horses, so I’m hoping he has the lead turning for home and can take it the rest of the way. Edgar Morales rides for trainer Thomas Van Berg.
#5 Lighthouse Point
Trainer Bob Hess ships this gelding in from Southern California. He has a good work on the tab at Keeneland last week, so he might be primed for a decent effort. I’m venturing to guess that those races he comes out of at Santa Anita were a little tougher than this field here, so I think he’s definitely got a look in here. Hess is also a nice 21% when coming second off the layoff, so that’s a plus also. Jesus Castanon in the saddle.
Race 7
#4 Lewys Vaporizer
This 7YO gelding is a real pro. 13 lifetime wins from 32 starts. He’s run two times this year, and birth efforts were nice. It looks like he could be the speed of the speed in here. Although, he’s not a total need the lead type. He’s in the trustable hands if trainer Tom Amoss, who looks to have him in good form. He’s 3 for 5 at this distance, so this is right up his alley. Tyler Gafflione aboard.
#7 Turner Time
This guy also loves to win, 6 for 12 lifetime. He projects to get a pretty nice trip in this race, should be able to sit off the speed and make a good run in the stretch. Trainer Matt Shirer is winning at 24% so far this year, so this horse is coming from a hot barn. Florent Geroux has been abroad for his last three races, and he’s back today.
#8 Brerry
He was just nipped at the end of his last race by the #7 horse in here. He’s been effective at this distance, with a second and a third in two starts at 6.5F. Strangely enough however, this is guy is 0-14 on a fast main track, which should be the conditions today. Adam Beschizza rides for trainer Angel Montano.
Race 8
#6 Laser Loop
Last out winner at Keeneland. Ran pretty well that day off a 4 month layoff. Trainer Rusty Arnold is on fire right now. He’s 4 for 8 at the meet so far, plus he’s 26% second off the break. This horse has a really strong 47/1 workout out of that last race. He’s one for one here at Churchill, so he likes this surface. Corey Lanerie is the jockey today, and he’s ridden this horse to a couple of good finishes before. It’s a small sample size, but when Lanerie teams up with Arnold, they hit at 36%.
#8 Lngtermrelationshp
This gelding has been absent since January at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Michael Tomlinson is about 14% off the bench. Tomlinson is also quite strong with horses that won their last race (26%). His one-turn dirt races are actually fairly decent efforts. He looks like he will be coming from off the pace, so getting a clean trip and some racing luck will be important. The veteran Chris Landeros is the pilot.
#7 Uber Kirk
This 4YO colt by Run Away and Hide is definitely coming out of the best races. He’s been facing horses like Fuel the Bern and Woderson, they would be overwhelming favorites in a spot like this. This guy brings pace to the party, and both of his career victories have come right here at Churchill. He’s coming out of some sprint races, and McPeek is 27% going sprint to route. He gets his main man Brian Hernandez Jr to ride.
Race 9
#2 Vogt
This race looks packed with speed, and this guy will be a part of that. He’s coming out of a stakes race at Keeneland in which he finished about 5 lengths behind the nice horse Bulletin. This guy’s two races prior to the stakes try, were really nice efforts at the Fair Grounds. I think the 5F distance today will be perfect for him, and hopefully he can break sharp and use that early speed. Jockey Ricardo Santana is red hot this meet, winning at 35% here so far. He rides for Steve Asmussen.
#4 Quick Entry
This will be first time on the grass for the Marylou Whitney homebred. He’s by Point of Entry, so he should take to the turf. He ran alright off a 7 month layoff last time out at Keeneland. And if you look way back to his debut at Saratoga last summer, he faced Code of Honor, who’s turned into a nice runner; second in the Derby last weekend. I think he can sit off the pace and employ a stalk and pounce approach. Ultimately, this horse might prefer longer distances, but I wouldn’t totally dismiss him today. Chris Landeros in the irons.
#10 Cohete Rojo
His name means red rocket, and in his two races on the turf he was indeed pretty fast. Draw a line through dirt races, he clearly prefers grass. Trainer Joe Sharp adds blinkers today, and he hits at 17% with that move. Sharp is also very strong in turf sprints, connecting at 32%. I would expect quite a bit of speed, especially with the outside draw and the addition of the blinkers. Adam Beschizza has been up for all four previous races, and he’s back today. He and Sharp hit at about 22% together.