Weather does look to be a factor today. And because of that, I will be passing on the 8th race. I have handicapped the other turf races as if they will be on the grass, but it’s definitely possible that will not be the case this afternoon. So probably draw a line through those.
Race 1
#3 Song River
First time 2YO here by new sire Liam’s Map. Liam’s Map had a lot of ability as horse, so I’m very interested to see how his progeny do on the track. Mark Casse trains this one. She has some very nice works on the tab, including a bullet 4F drill at Keeneland last week. She also has a couple of quick gate works, so I’m expecting this girl to be fast away from the gate. Casse overall is 17% with his 2YOs, although, he is having a slow meet so far winning at just 6%. Jockey David Cohen is also struggling so far, so I’m hopeful they can both buck those trends here in this race.
#2 Josie
Brad Cox sends out this daughter of the young sire Race Day. They paid $170,000 at the OBS sale in March, so I’m guessing this girl looks pretty good in the flesh. Cox has good numbers in pretty much every category, and he’s having a strong meet. This horse looks to be working well, and Cox first time starters tend to show some good early speed. Shaun Bridgmohan rides, he and Cox connect at 31% over the past couple years.
Race 2
#5 Charles T
Not a real strong group here to say the least. I’ll put this guy on top just because his last two fast track efforts were both okay. He has decent early speed, so he should have a say in the pace scenario. With Steve Asmussen’s main rider out of town, Tyler Baze will get aboard for the first time. Tyler is doing alright at the meet for his first time riding on this circuit full time.
#7 Off Sixes
For pretty much the same reason as the horse I listed above, this guy has a couple of good fast main track races. I’ll draw a line through his sloppy track efforts. He draws outside, and doesn’t have a lot of speed, so that’s not ideal. Chris Hartman trains this one, and Channing Hill will ride.
Race 3
#1 Stave
Second off the long layoff is an angle I like for this horse. She’s making her second start since November. Her return to the races last month was a pretty solid effort finishing 2nd. I don’t think this is the toughest third level allowance ever, the field looks a little weak. She’s drawn inside and has some tactical speed, so I’m thinking she’ll get a good trip. Some of her best races have been here beneath the twin spires. Larry Jones is the trainer, and his main man Gabriel Saez is the rider.
#6 Valentine Wish
Her last two races are not good. But she’s been off since April, so maybe she’s feeling fresher now. She ran races last year that would be fast enough to win this race, but can she recapture that form is the question. Trainer Victoria Oliver is having a slow year, and is only about 7% with horses off this type of break. She could be the speed of the race, but Leparoux isn’t really known as a “send” rider. With that being said, he has been absolutely on fire here over that past couple weeks, seemingly making all the right moves.
Race 4
#6 Run This Town
Welp….this is not a real talented group of runners…
I’ll put this colt on top just because I think his last race is the strongest of the group. Plus, I think he could improve here being that this is his second start now for trainer Robertino Diodoro. He lost his last race by over 12 lengths, but he was almost 5 lengths clear of the third place finisher in that race. This race is also a little shorter, which could help. Jockey David Cohen rides a lot for Diodoro, and they connect at 23%. However, they are not as successful when it’s here at Churchill..
#9 Who’syourfavorite
This guy is taking a monumental drop in class today. His last two races have basically been for $75,000, and today’s is for just $10,000. He hasn’t done much running in his races so far. But this previous try at $30,000 on the turf wasn’t too terrible, so this weak race could be what he needs to get into the winner’s circle. He’s trained by Philip Bauer, and ridden by Gabriel Saez.
#7 Way too Wicked
Only one potential reason I would throw this guy into the mix, and that’s because he could be the speed of the race. Two back in the slop he pressed the pace and finished second. His one lone fast track race was abysmal. So he might need moisture in the track to run his best. He’ll be hoping for rain. Miguel Mena in the irons.
Race 5
#6 Clouded Judgement
I’m mainly looking at this geldings race at the beginning of December, if he’s able to duplicate that effort, I think he can be a factor in here at a decent price. I think there is a fair amount of speed in this race, and I think he can get a good stalking position. He’s been absent since January, but he looks to be working well. Trainer Michelle Lovell is about 14% with horses off the layoff. Gabriel Saez is the pilot.
#8 Chief Hosa
This guy looks to be one the major pace players. He’s been off since November, so he might be extra fresh. Trainer Thomas Drury has remarkable numbers in most categories. He’s 36% off the layoff, he’s 38% in turf sprints, and he’s 36% in claiming races. This gelding is drawn outside, so that could be advantageous. He’s also got 3 career wins at this distance, which is tied for the most in this field. Brian Hernandez in the saddle.
#9 Souperfast
Another one here that’s coming off a significant layoff, having not raced since December. He’s also never run at this 5F distance before, so I don’t expect him to show much sprint speed today. However, if there is a pace meltdown, I expect him to be rolling late. He’s faced some pretty classy horses in the past, so he definitely fits with this group. Plus, these are top notch connections. Shychai Racing, Mike Maker, and Tyler Gafflione.
Race 6
#6 Garey Park
I’m hoping the cutback to 7F will help this guy’s chances. He set the pace last time out going a mile and a sixteenth, and he faded a little bit in the stretch. I’m thinking he would be coming from off the pace in this race. Trainer Andrew McKeever still has a goose egg in the win column on the year, so that’s not great, but maybe he’s due for a few wins. This horse has hit the board in three of his four career fast main track races. Tyler Gafflione listed as the rider.
#8 Summerduck
This gray colt absolutely looks to be the speed of the race. He’s drawn perfectly on the outside here. He’s also first off the claim for trainer Eddie Kenneally, and he’s an astounding 37% with that move. I don’t love this horse’s last race, that’s why I’m not putting him on top, but he is still a major player in here. Corey Lanerie gets aboard for the first time, and he’s having a wonderful meet. He’s also successful when teaming up with Kenneally here at Churchill, winning at 30%.
#2 Sparkys Surprise
This gelding’s two best races have been over this track, including a decent closing third in his last race here a month ago. He tends to throw in some real clunkers, but if he brings a good effort, he could definitely get a piece of this. Shaun Bridgmohan rode him last time, and he’s back on today. I’m not very familiar with the trainer Alice Cohn.
Race 7
#8 Babaknowseverything
This filly has been off since March down at Oaklawn Park. That race was her best race to date. She definitely prefers a dry track, so the weather will be important for her. She’s been in the exacta 7 out of 10 on a fast track, and she’s also proven to like this surface. I think she’ll sit a good trip just off the speed. As mentioned earlier, jockey David Cohen has been chilly this meet, but he’s definitely a capable rider.
#9 Sugar Cube
First off the claim for Karl Broberg is a big angle here. He’s 26% with that, plus, he’s had this horse in his barn before. I think this mare prefers two turns, so this distance should help her. She lots of experience here at Churchill, including 5 lifetime wins from 12 total starts. She also picks up one of the hottest riders at the meet in the Corey Lanerie. She figures to come from off the pace, so Lanerie will need to work out a trip from the outside draw.
#2 Mizzen Air
This mare has spent a lot of time sprinting, but she’s had some success routing in the past as well. She looks to be a speed player in here, so I would expect her to be pressing the pace from the outset. Trainer Merrill Scherer is about 20% when going sprint to route. Shaun Bridgmohan retains the mount.
Race 8
*skip*
Rainy forecast/potentially off turf
Race 9
#8 Promised Fame
Buff Bradley sends out this 3YO filly. She ran an okay third in her last start here. She’s cutting back a furlong today, which I think may help. This will also be her second with blinkers, so that’s also an angle that intrigues me. I think their hand was forced last time when she drew the rail, so I think this outside post could help, they won’t need to send so much at the start. Miguel Mena will be in the irons.
#3 Marie’s Mandate
This one is dropping from a maiden $50,000, so that’s a pretty significant drop here for start number two. She split a field of eight at Keeneland in her debut. She showed some early speed and then flattened out in the stretch. Brad Cox is about 15% with second time starters, which is actually a low number for him. I’ll be willing to play against this filly at a short price. David Cohen rides.
#6 Passion’s Image
This filly showed a decent improvement in start number two last time out. She made a decent middle move in that race, and cutting back to 6F today could help her. Trainer Helen Pitts is having a solid year with limited starters. Gabriel Saez rode this horse last time, and he’s back aboard her today.