This is the start to a really nice weekend at Churchill. It’s Stephen Foster weekend, and the weather looks good, at least for today. So let’s try to build the bankroll heading into Saturday.
Race 1
#1 Verb
This colt has one start under his belt, and it was in an absolutely loaded race at Santa Anita last month. The top three finishers from that race all came back to win their next start, including Fore Left going to New York last weekend and winning the Tremont Stakes. I like his post position a little more today. I think he got enough education in his first start that she should be able to handle this today. And I think it’s a sign of confidence from trainer Keith Desormeaux that he brings this one to Churchill to try to cash with the $95,000 purse here. James Graham will ride today.
#7 By Your Side
This colt will be making his first start. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is having an awesome meet, and he’s a decent 13% with 2YO runners. The workouts look to be very good, and they paid a hefty $240,000 for this colt at auction last year. That’s a pretty big price tag considering his young sire Constitution only stands for $15,000. Based on the works, I would expect some good early speed. Corey Lanerie rides, and he and Kenneally are 31% percent when they team up here.
#2 Lucky Curlin
Another firster here, this one trained by Mark Casse. He’s by Curlin, out of a Hard Spun mare, so he will probably ultimately want to run further than this 5.5F distance. But the works look good, and Casse can definitely have them ready to win a debut. This is a homebred for John Oxley. Shaun Bridgmohan will be the pilot.
Race 2
#3 Arch Avenue
I think this looks like a pretty competitive race. I think the cutback to one turn will be help this filly today. She ran well last time out, just got a little tired at the end, and was still 3 lengths clear of the third place horse. Both of this horses career wins have been at this one mile distance. She’s also proven an affinity for this surface. She’s run well both times here. With limited runners, Jason Barkley is having a solid meet. Miguel Mena in the saddle.
#6 Flat Awesome Jenny
They added blinkers for her last start, and that resulted in a win at Keeneland back in April. She’s been off since then, but trainer Michael Tomlinson is about 20% off the layoff. And he’s also an impressive 24% with horses that won their last start. This filly looks to be working well coming into this. She also likes this track, she broke her maiden here last fall going seven furlongs. I also think her outside draw today could help. Brian Hernandez can play the break and make adjustments from there. I would expect her to come from a little off the pace.
Race 3
#5 Ruler of the Nile
Connections had big plans with this guy back in the day. This colt was purchased for a million dollars at the OBS sale in 2017. His career hasn’t quite lived up to that, to say the least. But he’s definitely in a good spot today. He was making his first start of the year last month, and he won that race nicely. He was claimed by Michael Lauer, who now bumps him up to this $16,000 level. But he proved last year that he fits with these. I think he’ll be one the main pace factors, and he’s shown to be a tough customer when challenged. Jack Gilligan will be the pilot.
#3 Double Tuff
This gray gelding hails from the Diodoro barn. He’s been facing Indiana breds for much of the recent past, but he’s been competitive against open company before. He also hasn’t been a level this low in quite a while. It’s been since 2017 when this guy last saw the winners circle, but I think he’s got a chance to end that drought today. Unfortunately he’ll be in the ice cold hands of jockey David Cohen today. David has just two wins out of over 60 starters. And he and Diodoro are 0-22 here at Churchill. Both Cohen and Diodoro are high percentage guys, so they should snap out of it eventually.
#6 Icatiro
I just want to quickly mention this as a potential closing threat. He’s the best closer in here, and Calvin Borel rides. As we know, Calvin is notorious for riding the rail with a closer. This horse also has not been down at this level in a long time, so he has a chance to end his losing streak here today also.
Race 4
#11 Daddy’s Gone
Well, again, not a tremendous field assembled here. I’ll put this one on top thinking that maybe the stretch out to a mile will help him. Thus far, he has been the king of minor awards. 11 combined seconds and thirds out of 17 career starts. He also hasn’t found the winners circle for a few years. He kind of has an even running style going 6F, so I’m thinking the extra distance could benefit him. This Arkansas bred is owned and trained by Steve Asmussen. Ricardo Santana will be the rider.
#7 Sensational Sam
First time gelding here that hasn’t been seen since April at Keeneland. That was a pretty good effort against much tougher competition. Trainer Scooter Dickey is only about 3% with this type of layoff, so that’s not very effective. But I think the cutback to one turn, combined with the drop in class could aid this one’s effort today. He’s one of the most experienced runners in this race, having made 23 starts so far. Chris Landeros in the irons.
#4 Lemon Again
This guy’s last two efforts haven’t been all that bad. He crushed a group of $10,000 maiden claimers two back going this exact trip. And last time out he made a nice middle move around the turn and then flattened out in the stretch. That was going a mile and a sixteenth, so they may have just been slightly longer than he prefers. Trainer Dallas Stewart is having his typical effective meet winning at 17%. James Graham was aboard for this guy’s maiden win, and he will be reunited here today. Look for this one to be rolling from behind.
Race 5
#10 Rock On Kitten
This colt will be making his first start outside of maiden special weight company. He’s run some good races against that tougher company, so he’ll be a tough customer in here. Trainer Mike Maker is about 20% when making that drop. I expect this horse to show some pace in this spot. He hasn’t raced since April, but Maker is close to 20% with the layoff also. This Ramsey homebred will be ridden by Tyler Gafflione.
#9 Higher Authority
This gray ridgling will also be taking the drop from MSW. Just like my top pick, this one looks to have some good early speed, and should be able to get into a good position. Also having been off since April, trainer Joe Sharp is 20% with the layoff. Sharp is also an effective 23% when dipping into maiden claiming company for the first time. Gabriel Saez will be getting aboard this son of Bernardini for the first time today.
#8 Sugar Dog Fox
This is a firster for trainer Buff Bradley. Bradley isn’t known at all for winning with young, inexperienced horses. However, I really like some of the workouts that this colt has. Buff normally does not train his horses that quickly in the mornings, but this guy has some sharp works, including a bullet of 54 last week. Calvin Borel will be the riding. So all things considered, I’m expecting this one to be sitting at the back of the pack and try to make one run at the end.
Race 6
#5 Peachy
This filly raced for $20,000 last time out, didn’t run too poorly, now takes a little drop today. She’s hit the board in five out of her seven lifetime tries at 6F. She projects to get a midpack trip. Trainer Genaro Garcia has had this horse in his barn before, so he’s familiar with this horse. Adam Beschizza will be riding her for the first time.
#9 Devil’s Envy
This girl has made two career starts. The first one on turf was just so so, but her first try on the dirt was very successful. She absolutely dominated a field of eight others in a $10,000 maiden claiming group. She was claimed in that race, and is now in the barn of trainer Donald Habeeb, who I am not very familiar with. But I have to believe if she can keep her form from the last race, she will be a major player in here. She draws outside and her early speed should allow her to get a good position. Tyler Gaffalione rode for the previous connections, and he’ll stick aboard today.
#7 Wosie
This filly is taking a jump up in class here. She’s first off the claim for Benjie Larue. This horse is two for two at Churchill, and all three of her fast track efforts are good. So she’s hoping for good weather. Also probably hopes for a nice stalking trip. James Graham will ride her for the first time.
Race 7
#2 Sheesa Pontiac
Major drop in class today. Her Oaklawn race back in April would put her right in the mix with this group. Her two tries at this distance were also her best two races. And I think she might have a tactical advantage in this spot. There is not much speed in here, so she should be forwardly placed. Chris Landeros will ride for trainer Donnie Von Hemel.
#11 Data Damsel
Another major class dropper here. Her race two back would definitely be good enough to beat this group. I think she has a tough post today, she doesn’t have early foot, yet she’s not a stone cold closer, so she may end up with a pretty wide trip. Trainer Ben Colebrook is having a quiet year, but he’s a very capable conditioner. James Graham will be in saddle.
#5 Nautia
These are not typically the types of horses that I would endorse. She’s got just one win in 23 starts. Obviously draw a line through her last start in which she stumbled and lost the rider at the start. Her previous two starts before that, were fairly competitive. She’s also been alright at this distance. Florent Geroux will ride for trainer Charles Dickey.
Race 8
#3 Coexistence
Didn’t run too poorly last time all things considered. She drew the outside post last time, and she draws a much better spot here. Should get a ground saving trip. For a turf sprint, there really isn’t much speed in this race, so I think she’ll be forwardly placed. She’s 2 for 3 in turf sprints, so they seemed to have found her calling. Joe Sharp trains, and Adam Beschizza rides.
#9 VJs Bet
Also exits the same race as my top pick in here. This filly ran very well in that race. She looks to probably be the controlling speed in here, so the outside post shouldn’t cause many problems. She’s in good form right now, so I expect another good effort. Jockey David Cohen has had a very slow meet, winning at less than 5%. Trainer Jimmy DiVito is having a nice 2019 hitting at 18%.
#6 Ficanas
Trainer John Sadler ships this one in from California for this big weekend at Churchill. I think this horse probably prefers a little longer distance. She’s seems to be more effective at 6.5F, but she’ll be rolling late in the stretch and could definitely get a piece of this. She looks to be working well of late. Former California jockey Tyler Baze will be in the saddle.
Race 9
#12 Unstabled
Not a real strong group here. This gelding’s last couple of fast main track efforts have been good. He’s also 2 for 4 here beneath the Twinspires. I think he has a enough speed to sit close early on. Thomas Drury is a high percentage trainer, and he’s an exceptional 34% in claiming races. Corey Lanerie will hop aboard for this race today.
#1 Got Even
I’ll kind of draw a line through his last race. It was against tougher company, and he had been in pretty good form before that race. However, he is 10 years old, so you never really know. He has bounced back from poor races before, so I’m hoping he can do it again. Diodoro is a high percentage trainer, so I’ll give this horse another look. David Cohen in the irons