Churchill Downs
Breeders’ Cup Friday November 2, 2018
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics
and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee
benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC.
Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal
horse handicapper. He loves a good cry, pizza, sarcasm, and butterfly kisses. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s
on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and
handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge. This
weekend in Louisville at the Breeders’ Cup, she is likely playing exacta boxes including the most beautiful
horses with those having a funny name… and cashing tickets.
Ladder bets are for losers.
Fade me.
Race One: 12:55 post – OC 80000n3x 1 1/16 Mile F&M 3&Up
5-4-3-2
Welcome to Churchill Downs and the 2018 Breeders’ Cup! Our weekend of races starts with a sparsely
entered OC 80000n3x affair with six entrants. Though the entrants are few, they are pretty evenly
matched. I’m a sucker for a weight reduction, so #2 Sweet Legacy attracts my attention as Edgar
Morales crawls aboard for the first time for George Arnold. The past three races haven’t been much,
but running at an all-time low weight in a field of six is sure to increase the chances of this mare. She ran
three races earlier this year that are good enough to get it done today, but I prefer her underneath. #3
Stronger Than Ever has been running at long odds in some recent stakes races, and she is getting some
much needed class relief for Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez. She beat Wonder Gadot back in
January, but I don’t think she is going to get enough pace today for her closing kick. #4 Dutch Parrot is a
serious threat for William Van Meter, and Ricardo Santana Jr. thinks enough of her to start his weekend
early. She ran on the turf in her last race and broke dead last only to close into a pretty heated pace and
finish a diminishing length and a quarter from the win. She’s a real threat today. #5 Enthrall is our slight
morning line favorite, and I am going to take it. James Lawrence is shipping her in from the mid-Atlantic
and Edgar Prado is making the trip for his only race of the weekend and I take this as a huge vote of
confidence. She has been in the money in her last five races since Edgar climbed aboard, and I give her
the nod here.
Race Two: 1:28 post – MSW 82K 6F 2YO
7-6-5-2
This maiden special weight has a field of eleven entrants, five of which are first time starters. #6 Captain
Von Trapp is the morning line favorite and has every right to win this race at second asking. Steve
Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr. combine at a 23% win percentage when they team up and the colt
flashed a lot of talent the first time out. He was bumped at the start and spotted the leader six lengths
before he got into his motor in the stretch, only to take second by a half-length. A cleaner trip today
puts him right there. #5 Chess Chief debuted in the same race as our ML favorite and had a much
cleaner trip on the front end for Dallas Stewart and Robby Albarado. He flattened out in the stretch a bit
and surrendered an in-the-money finish, but only by a length. To me, Captain Von Trapp flashed much
more talent than Chess Chief. #2 Admire is an expensive first time starter for Dale Romans and Joel
Rosario. Romans loves Churchill Downs and would like nothing better than to break this $360K bonus
baby’s maiden at first asking on Breeders’ Cup day. This colt has been working lights out at Churchill
Downs since early September and Romans could certainly get it done today. I am going to take another
first time starter to upset the apple cart, however. #7 Midnight Curfew might not look like the best first
time starter on paper, but there are a lot of interesting dimensions to this colt. First, he has been
steadily working at Belmont and Saratoga for over two months only to travel to Churchill Downs for his
last published workout on October 28th . There is nothing flashy to see here, just good solid works.
Jeremiah Englehart brought only three horses to Breeders’ Cup weekend: Forty Under in the BC Juvenile
Turf, Aveenu Malcainu in The Cherokee Run, and this first time starter. Midnight Curfew is debuting in
Louisville on Breeders’ Cup Day for a reason, and that reason is his owner Michael J. Ryan. Ryan is a
long-time bloodstock agent based in Kentucky and he has been affiliated with six previous Breeders’ Cup
winners, most recently New Money Honey. He was the co-breeder of 2017 Kentucky Derby winner
Always Dreaming and he pinhooked 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing, 2005 Horse of the Year
Saint Liam, and 2015 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. The man knows his horse flesh and he would like
nothing better than to blow up the tote at the Churchill Downs Breeders’ Cup.
Race Three: 2:02 post – OC 62500n2x 1 Mile 3&Up
1-7-8-10
The sentimental race on today’s undercard is an OC 62500n2x that features fan favorites #7 J Boy’s Echo
and #8 Patch. Both horses ran in the 2017 Kentucky Derby here at Churchill Downs and both have had
limited success since their run for the roses. That said, both horses have the most back class in this race
and both fired clunkers in their last race. J Boy’s Echo hasn’t really been that good all year, but you can
bet Dale Romans would love a Churchill win or two this weekend. They are very similar in class and I
expect them both to run well today. My preference is Patch as Johnny V returns to pilot him after being
away for the last four races. #10 Shareholder Value has been climbing the claiming ranks in his last
three starts going from 25K to 32K to 40K. Some exceptional horsemen have bought and lost this horse
since August and Eddie Kenneally is wheeling him right back to the track with two weeks rest. He’s a
respectable hard-knocker and I expect improvement today based on trainer upgrade alone. #1 Casses
Story looks to ruin the sentimental party today for Joe Sharp and Adam Beschizza. Sharp claimed him for
50K on August 16th at Saratoga, moved him up to this level in his next start here at Churchill Downs, and
won by open lengths in his first race for Joe. He’s back at the same level one month later and I see no
reason why the horse won’t be even better for Sharp the second time out.
Race Four: 2:36 post – Street Sense Stakes 1 Mile 2YO
2-3-5-8
On paper, this is clearly a two horse race between #2 Improbable and #3 Trophy Chaser. As much as I
would love to find some value on top, the pace of this race looks to set up beautifully for Bob Baffert’s
Improbable. #9 Marquee Prince may be able to put a little scare into them on the front end, but I
believe he will have plenty of company from #7 Manny Wah. Trophy Chaser ran an incredible race for a
2YO at Gulfstream Park on August 25th , winning by 15 lengths in the slop. Factor that in to your equation
should today’s card turn up moist (yeah, I said moist). While Trophy Chaser is likely the best on the front
end, Improbable, should he maintain his first race form, will put some pressure on the leaders from the
garden spot. #5 Moonster broke his maiden in a very credible race here at Churchill Downs on
September 15th . That race was so good that Dale Romans entered him the Breeders Futurity next out at
Keeneland where he didn’t run a step and looked gassed early. Should Moonster prefer the Churchill
footing, he will add to the pressure. If the pace completely melts down, #8 Louder Than Bombs will pick
up the pieces on the field.
Race Ten: 6:43 post – G2 marathon 1 ¾ Mile 3&Up
10-6-9-7
In a race going a mile and three-quarters over the main track, only three of the entrants have gone over
a mile and a half in their career. #7 Big Dollar Bill won the Birdstone Stakes at this distance at Saratoga
on August 2nd . Ian Wilkes has kept him in hard-knocking consistent form throughout his career and his
regular jockey Chris Landeros stays in the saddle. He won’t embarrass himself. #9 Toast of New York has
had quite the career with numerous breaks in training, including a three year layoff from 2014 to 2017.
He ran a pretty credible return in the Lukas Classic here at Churchill Downs after an eight month layoff
finishing second to Mind Your Biscuits. His connections thought enough of it that they have him cross-
entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he’s on the AE list. Jamie Osborne may finally have him right as
a seven year old. If so, he figures based on class alone. #6 War Story has raced at a mile and a half or
further a few times in his career, but he’s never gone quite this far. I’m sure that the extra panel won’t
cost him, but I would love to know why his regular rider, Javier Castellano, jumped ship. Irad Ortiz
reclaims the mount as he has ridden him numerous times, so I am not too concerned. He is certainly
honest, but he got smoked by my top pick #10 Rocketry last time out at Belmont. I don’t think he is
good enough to turn the tables on Rocketry today. While fourteen of his fifteen lifetime starts have
come on the weeds, Rocketry didn’t disappoint in his first dirt try on September 30 th . Joel Rosario
controlled the race from the second call and was never threatened. Quite frankly, I think James Jerkens
is a genius and has found another facet of Rocketry’s game by going long on the dirt. After winning
today’s card-closing race, Rocketry will finally reach “black type” status for Centennial Farms.