5.31.2019- Picks and Analysis for Belmont
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Race 1: 6,3,2
Golden Vale was my top pick back on May 10th here at Belmont where she lost the lead late in the stretch and finished 2nd. Today she is cutting back slightly in distance and with Kendrick back in the irons I think today she keeps that lead late.
Simona will likely be the favorite in here and has either won or finished 2nd in 4 straight races in 2019. Being close to the inside I think that she gets sent early and attempts to wire this field. I won’t be surprised if she does wire the field, but her best races have come with her sitting behind the pace and for that reason I am placing her 2nd, but will include on my multi race tickets.
Tequila Sunday hated the sloppy track last time out so I am drawing a line though that race. Her races over a dry track which according to the weather it should be sunny today are good enough to be competitive against this field. I am not a huge fan of Slivera in the irons and Robert Klesaris has been ice cold so far this year, but at a price is one that I think will run well and provide good value for underneath in exotic wagers.
Race 2: 4,5,6
Papa King is a first time starter for TAP who gets Johnny V in the irons. Johnny V is at the point in his career that if he is riding a first time starter there is a reason in my opinion so using this one on top. Has been working well too and in good company.
Bull of Bayern is well you guessed it sired by the freshmen sire Bayern. Not sure how he is as a sire yet with only 1 starter going into today, but in a sprint like this I don’t see why Bull of Bayern should not run well. Rudy has a sneaky good ROI in spots like this too.
Theitalianamerican will be the favorite in here after making up a ton of ground in his debut where he just missed. He gets Rosario back in the irons which is a good sign, but at a short price I will only use this one defensively. He had no run early on and only started to pick it up after the race fell apart on the front end. I am skeptical that he can run back to that effort with a pace that does not collapse.
Race 3: 5,6,7
Mutakatif (Ire) is the horse to beat here for Chad Brown with Javier in the irons. Yes he lost his North American debut, and yes I am not a fan of the cutbacks on the turf, but he has a win at this distance in his career already and ran like this 7f distance is the right distance last time out.
Morrison is making his 4 year old debut today and I think this one can improve off his 3 year old form. Has shown early speed in every career start and today gets Kendrick in the irons who does great with early speed horses. Also Joe Sharp has solid numbers route to sprints.
Morning Breez is a horse who on value alone I think should be on tickets. He only has 1 career turf race which was a solid effort last November, but he does have turf pedigree and Carlos Martin has a $4.87 ROI moving horses from dirt to turf. I am not a speed figure guy but if his dirt form transfers to the turf he will be super competitive against this field based on his speed figures.
Race 4: 9,7,6
No Fly Zone is stretching out on the turf which I like a lot and should benefit his off the pace running style. He was flying home in his last race before he got interfered with but the added distance today should help that late kick. He also gets Manny Franco in the irons today who has been struggling a bit at Belmont
Poppy Joe Rocks was nearly my top choice in here and I will use him on all my tickets. His 2 career races under 1 mile on the turf have been by far his best career races and today gets Irad in the irons who is always dangerous in New York. Sharp has impressive turf sprint numbers as well.
Coach Villa should be a big price but fits against a field that for lack of a better word is suspect. He broke his maiden on the turf 2 back and the horse who finished 2nd came back to win. He has been working alright since that turf win so at a price will include on some tickets.
Race 5: 8
I am not a fan of Race 5 at all and is a tough race to end the pick 5. You either single the 8 or play all the others to end your pick 5. I am going with singling the 8 here It’s a Shaw Thing who has shown early speed in all his career starts and I do not see who will run with him early so will play him thinking he goes gate to wire with Davis in the irons.
Race 6: 6,11,1
Alphastest is dropping in for a tag in his 3 year old debut and ran well in his maiden race here on the Belmont Turf. Has been working just alright so I would not take a short price on him, but if he stays around 3-1 I think he is worth using on top against this field.
Opt was nearly my top pick in here but dropping this one in for a tag after only 1 career start and after paying $190K for him as a yearling has me concerned. I don’t see much of a turf pedigree here but I won’t be surprised if he runs well in this spot against this field. Look for this one to be claimed and run back on the dirt with a quick turnaround if he comes out of the race okay.
The Grand Canal should benefit from having the rail today but really had no excuse last time against similar. Will need to improve today to beat this bunch but with Jose in the irons and Rice training I think this one is a must use on multi race tickets.
Race 7: 3,1,6
Spectator Sport gets back to the dirt today for Ron Atras and I know the morning line odds don’t show it but I think this one is the one to beat. Ran 3rd in his last dirt race back in April to Family Biz who would be the heavy favorite against this field today and his dirt race before that was an impressive win against similar to what he is facing today. Also gets Irad in the irons today.
Curlin’s New Moon is stretching out today and will be tough if he runs back to his last race here at Belmont on May 16th. I question if he can run back to that effort has he has been very inconsistent in his career, but at the right price I will use him on some tickets.
Everything Pazible is coming off a win here against similar last time out and gets Lezcano back in the irons today. He ran well stalking the pace from the outside last time out and today should get a similar trip. Also Lezcano has been red hot lately.
Race 8: 7,2,5
Gidu (Ire) is making his 4 year old debut sprinting on the turf which is exactly where I’ve wanted to see him his whole career. The last time he went under 1 mile on the turf he ran against some of the toughest turf sprinters in the country in Disco Partner and Pure Sensation. Today no one in this field is even close to that caliber and I think the class relief helps.
Big Handsome should get a great pace to sit off today and is running back at 7f here which I like. He also gets a jockey upgrade to Javier who is excellent on the turf. Also Dutrow has yet to miss the money with any of his starters this meet.
White Flag in my opinion wants to go longer then 7f but is more than capable of beating this field today. He will be on all my tickets especially with getting Rosario back in the irons who won riding him last July at this distance here at Belmont.
Race 9: 8,6,7
Maniacal has run well in all 3 turf races in 2019 and I think this 6f distance today is the right spot. Gets a jockey upgrade to Javier as well which is a positive sign.
Amelia’s Wild Ride is dropping in class today and should be very competitive against this field today. I doubt we get near 5-1 on her but if we do she is well worth a play.
Spectrolite should be the controlling speed in this field today and while Cancel has won 2 of his last 3 races riding Spectrolite I am not a huge fan of him as a jockey and will try and beat this one on top but I won’t be surprised if he holds on for a piece though so using underneath.