Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Wednesday, October 2, 2019, by Chris Felts

We kick off some October racing with this Belmont Wednesday card, 8 races in store with a first post time of 1:15 PM. Best of luck if you’re playing along and as always follow me on twitter for any updates and changes @cjfelts87.

Through 16 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 134-33-29-26 (25% win, 66% ITM) 

Race 1 CLM 12.5k fillies and mares 3up, 6.5 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 1,5  B: 2,4

Top pick- #5 Moondance Joy

  • Since being claimed has run against slightly tougher and now drops in claiming price. Still put up respectable numbers and is in good form for a newer trainer in Orlando Noda who has been quick to find the winner’s circle and does well in claiming races: 26% with a $3.51 ROI.

Second choice- #1 Princess Victoria

  • Her win 2 back came on an off track race, the last race was on turf so the connections were experimenting with grass since the claim. Now switches back to dirt and Luis Saez will have her tracking the pace as they round the far turn.

Underneath- #2 Dan’s Girl, #3 Miss Loyalty, #4 Letmetakethiscall

Race 2 MCL 40k State bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 ⅛ miles turf

Multi Race- A: 3,7  B: 1,4

Top pick- #7 Farcial

  • Came from way off the pace to rally for second last out going a mile at this level. Now gets a positive jock switch to Castellano and will benefit with the added distance. Recent beyers have been close to today’s par too.

Second choice- #3 Paradiso

  • Drops in for a tag for the first time as Dylan Davis stays on. Did flash speed last out at the maiden special level and Dylan likes to be on the lead. Trainer Timothy Hills hits at 24% with a $4.84 ROI making the msw to mcl switch,I like her enough with that trainer angle to have her as an A horse.

Underneath- #1 Cold Hearted Cat, #4 Big Expense, #9 Taralluci

Race 3 MCL 30k 2yo, 7 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 1,2  B: 3,4

Top pick- #2 Managing Risk

  • Normally I would be concerned with the surface switch but this colt finds a soft spot to try dirt again. Drops from the maiden special level and a positive jock switch to Luis Saez who hopefully puts him on the lead, I expect enough improvement in his 3rd career start to find the winner’s circle.

Second choice- #1 Big Royal Lineage

  • The other half of the uncoupled Rudy Rodriguez entry, another colt dropping in for a tag from the maiden special level. Hopes to get a better break out of the gate than his last 2 efforts and showed improvement against tougher last out.

Underneath- #3 Upham, #4 Kobe, #5 Tempus

Race 4 CLM 25k state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf

Multi Race- A: 1/1A,8  B: 2

Top pick- #1/1A entry

  • #1 Appealing Briefs has the best late closing speed out of the bunch and makes sense based on the pace scenario, since there is enough speed to benefit closers here.
  • #1A Catch a Cab is also logical to me, improving in form for Jason Servis. Manny Franco should have him forwardly placed.

Second choice- #8 Blame the Thief

  • First off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez who hits at a 28% clip with a $2.19 ROI. Stays at the same level and distance coming off a win at Saratoga back in August and has been working well.

Underneath- #2 Wicked Freud, #4 Cloontia, #7 Gosilently

Race 5 OC/SAL 40k 3yo, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: #1/1A, 5  B: 3

Top pick- #1/1A entry

  • I only like #1 Dark Money and not the 1A Clench. Dark Money put up a 90 beyer last out at the starter allowance level and figures to only improve today. Probably won’t get much of a price but he makes the most sense on paper.

Second choice-  #5 Brush Country

  • Rounding up to the top of his form cycle and comes out of a win with Castellano aboard. Would expect him to be in the mix down the stretch.

Underneath- #3 Hardcore Folklore, #6 Chuckles

Race 6 CLM 32k 3up, 7 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 5,7  B: 2

Top pick- #7 Coltandmississippi

  • Switching surfaces to a distance he has won at before, he has over the Belmont course before and he was won with Rosario aboard before. Not to mention his career best beyer came against tougher at this distance.

Second choice- #5 Majestic Affair

  • Improving in form and dropping in class with Saez aboard today. Has enough speed to be involved in the pace throughout and make a move when it matters. 

Underneath- #1 Aristocratic, #2 Frammento, #3 Heavy Roller

Race 7 Str Alw 40k 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf 

Multi Race- A: 5,6 B: 2,7 

Top pick- #5 Lemonist

  • Drops into his eligible condition for Todd Pletcher and has enough speed to be competitive here. Looks like a standout on paper and hopes to get a good trip as Johnny V stays aboard.

Second choice- #6 Dalarna

  • Stretches back out to a route after a decent try sprinting on the grass. Won’t get it as easy as he did 2 back but is in good form to be competitive today.

Underneath- #2 Sentry, #7 Scholar Athlete

Race 8 Str Alw 50k fillies and mares 3up, 7 furlongs turf

Multi Race- A: 1,8 B: 5,7

Top pick- #8 Keota

  • Has won before with Lezcano and comes into this race in good form for Jason Servis. I can forgive the race 2 back since it was an off track race and the recent races besides then have been very consistent. 4/6 ITM over the Belmont turf course as she cuts back to a sprint.

Second choice- #1 Augusta Moon

  • Just didn’t have enough last race at the starter allowance level as she was beaten 2nd by less than a length and a win there means she wouldn’t have been eligible for today’s condition. Hopes to be in it late as she also cuts back to a sprint.

Underneath- #5 O’Malley, #7 Cape Cod Diva, #10 Dancingwithdafoddls

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