We are back at Belmont post Belmont Stakes week. I’m going to be blunt, last week was a stinker, we had a couple seconds and only one winner on top which was in the finale. Results for the meet will be posted below with my twitter as usual. Hopefully I can get back on track this week and get myself back to positive. Having another week like last could hurt, let’s get hot!
Twitter: @EdPiluso
Bet/Returned
$60/$52.20
Race 1: 1-11-5
#1 DREAM CHASING ran a very solid race last time out and improved quite a bit when turning over to the grass. Belmont Stakes winner Manny Franco gets a leg up here and there should be enough pace for her to stalk here. The trainer is 3 for 8 in turf sprints off layoffs in this certain time span. We see her getting lasix for the first time here which should be able to help her improve in what is a weaker field where she is dropping in class. #11 GRAETZ is coming off a first time turf try as well where she was too close to the pace and weakened a bit. Today I expect some improvement off that race second tie on the turf and dropping down in class. An aggressive rider in Saez should allow her to use her speed and clear the field from the outside post. The pace last time out was very hot and shouldn’t be as quick today and she should hang in there for at least a piece.
Race 2: 4-5-10
#4 IMPLIED VOLATILITY is an interesting play here at 8/1 ML after breaking his maiden in March. He’s very appropriately placed here after breaking that maiden at 25k, Rudy Rod is 20% with horses winning their last start and this horse loves this distance with a win and a second at the trip. This horse has been running very consistently under this jockey and as of recent. This horse should have some decent speed and should be able to sit just off the pace and make a nice move. #5 MENTAL MODEL has the best Beyer’s of the field and is going down to the lowest level of his career today. This horse has better class but doesn’t run extremely well over this track, or hasn’t yet. The switch back to the dirt should be welcomed for him but overall I feel like he will need a race before he should win OR he just doesn’t like Belmont. Good enough to stay and get a piece of the prize.
Race 3: 12-8-3
I’m going to take an interesting angle here for #12 FROZEN ACCOUNT a horse who has not run on a dry track yet (there is only a 30% chance of rain in the forecast and it is after this race). Those other races on a muddy and sloppy track were decent but this horse looks as if he will do very well on a dry track. The horse is dropping down to his lowest level ever today, his Beyer’s are some of the best in the field and he should be able to get into position from the outside by being a little slower off the start. There is a lot of speed in this race and he should get a good stalking trip at a distance he has finished 3rd at before. #8 UNBRIDLED JOHN has run a good race at the distance finishing 3rd in what was one of his best efforts Beyer wise. This race also sets up for a runner of his style very well. Last race was decent enough and he had a decent rally in the lane. A slight class drop here at a little bit of a longer race makes him interesting. This horse should be good enough to get a piece of the prize, do be weary about odds considering his dirt form overall.
Race 4: 6-9-3
#6 WILLING TO SPEED has been in very good form since this past fall and is coming off of a win at Gulfstream. John Kimmel is 23% with horses who won their last start and this guy does very well at the distance being ITM 8 of the 12 times he’s tried the trip. Joel hops up here which is very encouraging, he’s run very well at level’s around this and he has a decent form here over the Belmont grass. This trip also sets up for him as he has the tactical speed to stalk the pace here and made a solid run in the stretch. #9 RAPT is switching back to the grass here at Belmont where he does a very decent job. ITM in 7 out of 14 races here at Belmont and ITM 9 of 14 times at the distance. His Beyer’s are very solid and Manny comes back up here giving him a solid chance with that late speed he has.
Race 5: 1-12-11
#1 SARATOGA LOVE is dropping to her lowest career level today and is up for sale for the first time. A race second off a long layoff makes me quite hopeful against a weaker group here. We also see that the trainer is 4 for 8 with turf sprinters taking this drop when they’re at 9/1 odds or lower. She has a good race over this Belmont turf and looks like she can come out here and get a nice stalking trip on the rail. #12 MAGICAL ROMANCE is coming off a decent race here at Belmont two weeks ago at this level and outran her odds that day. She’s getting back to the grass and she has done her best work over the green. We see she has some decent success here over the Belmont turf being ITM in 3 of 7 tries and those are her only ITM finishes. At 8/1 ML she is a good value play here, especially if she runs as well as she did last time out.
Race 6: 5-3-8
#5 NASTY AFFAIR was in good form before the pandemic hit. She’s done her absolute best running at this distance being ITM in every race at the trip. We get a massive rider upgrade in Jose Ortiz today which will be very important for this closer. If she can get a cleaner break from the gate than normal this will give her a very solid chance to run a nice race. There is also a good amount of pace ahead of her for her to run at late, Jose should give her a good trip and her 6/1 ML price is quite a nice addition to this top selection. #3 SINGULAR SENSATION ran fantastically against Ratajkowski back in summer 19′ at Saratoga finishing 2nd by a neck. She’s coming back off of quite a long layoff which makes me think she may need a race but if she runs back to the form she had she should win here. Her odds being 2/1 ML aren’t enough to have her on top here as well as the fact I’m not huge on the layoff, she will still easily get a piece I feel. Keep an eye on the tote board.
Race 7: 4-3-7
Full disclosure on this race, I pondered over who to pick on top for quite some time here. I really like both selections and will likely play them both. #4 FAST GETAWAY just hardly gets the edge here for these reasons. His form at the distance is magnificent, he’s ITM in 6 of the 7 races at this trip. He also runes very well at Belmont going ITM 5 of 6 races here and owns a win here at this trip over this same turf course. He’s a constant runner at this level, his recent Beyer’s before going on the shelf were some of the best in the field and Linda Rice does very well with long layoffs. There will also be speed in front of him and he has the tactical speed to sit off that pace and make a nice run. #3 VALMONT is the better value play for a top selection here and was doing well before being put on the shelf. He won his last 2 races with Manny Franco up who will retain the mount today. He does well at the trip and has a win here over this turf course at this trip as well. The trainer has done well with long layoffs and the ONLY reason he was edged for the top pick, as they very clearly have similarities, was because he will have more speed on the front and may get drawn into a speed duel. As I said before, I will be using both of them.
Race 8 Easy Goer Stakes: 6-4-5
#6 TOY is going for the three peat today and considering recent improvements it is definitely within grasp. This gelding earned some very decent Beyer’s down at Laurel and his best performance coming May 31st. JohnnyV gets a leg up here which is always encouraging and this horse has the tactical speed to give his options. He will be able to get away from the gate cleanly with speed to his inside and set up for a very nice stalking trip here. This horse has won at the distance and may need to take a small step forward to win. At 8/1 ML and with recent works, I’m willing to take the chance that he improves here. #4 SONNEMAN came from Uzbekistan last time out to win with Joel up at Gulfstream. Today Jose hops up and takes a ride on him for the first time. This horse has been improving and that win off the lay off is very encouraging. With speed in front of him here he will have pace to run at coming from the back, the key is not being too far back here with only 6 horses. Jose should give him a good trip but if the pace isn’t as hot as it could be it may be the end for his win hopes, hence why I leave him second.
Race 9: 11-5-1
Ed picking a first time starter? Am I going crazy or am I lying to you about who I’m picking? Surprisingly, neither I am just very interested in #11 MONIFICENT here for a couple of reasons. Firstly, workouts have been very consistent from her which is promising. JohnnyV also has a stat here where 3 for 5 (with a second) with turf filly first time starters in sprints on the grass. The better runners in this field are closer’s and there isn’t seeming to be too much speed here. We see some solid turf pedigree here as well and there has to be a reason that a jockey like Johnny is sticking around for the finale here on a 10/1 ML firster. #5 TOWERING GAZE ran a decent race in her first career attempt finishing 3rd. She came from fairly far off the pace that day and the pace was quick enough for her to rally. The question here is will the pace be slower as there are many closer’s like her entered. I believe she is the best of them however and should be firing home regardless with Jose up.