We are back for another week at Belmont to kick off Belmont Stakes week! Last week we have a very successful week with 3 on top winners, and a positive week which also brought us positive for the meet so far! Stats for the meet will be posted below as will my twitter if you’d like to follow along with me today. 10 races are on tap so let’s get right into the action and stay hot from last week!
Twitter @EdPiluso
Bet/Returned
$40/$46.90
Race 1: 2-1-5
Well taking a shot on an 8/1 ML horse worked last week so, let’s go for it again! But in all seriousness #2 SKY QUEEN looks to be very live here. Her last race I don’t believe the speed figured earned truly reflects how well she ran is such a tough race. The winner of her last race she was in ran a very solid race here at Belmont last week and improved very nicely off her lackluster performance in her first start. She’s been doing a lot of things right, including running fantastically consistent 4 furlong works. Eric Cancel jumps back up and she has some very nice tactical speed to stalk the pace here which could be decent, looking very live here. #1 SNEER is arguably the horse to beat here but will also be the pacesetter against other horses who have speed. She ran a stinker last time out over a sloppy track but she does have a very nice showing before that. She ran fairly well at this distance before but I’m not sure she can get a victory here with a touch rail draw and a lot of tactical speed.
Race 2: 1-3-7
I would just like to start by saying I am taking a stand against the favorite here, as normal, however I really DO NOT like him at all and will happily let him beat me if he’s the best somehow. #1 LUXURY SUITE may look like an odd play here but let’s look a little deeper here. Joel is hopping back up after an alright performance last time, placing him way too far back on a pace that was not hot. His one win did come after trailing a hot pace, I think that the added distance with a lot of speed in front of him (including the favorite being the expected pacesetter with blinkers on for added speed). This is also the lowest level he’s ever been at and the trainer is 35% in going from a spring to a route distance. A lot to like here for a horse at 10/1 ML which is nice. #3 PRINCE OF NEW YORK has had two solid recent races and one was at this level. Those last two races were also at this distance, and you get a rider upgrade in Luis Saez today. He has a lot of speed as well and can stalk the pace here and can definitely get a piece here.
Race 3: 2-3-6
#2 KOKOPELLI is a first time starter amongst a slew of firsters here. She gets the nod for a few reasons, firstly we see some very good and consistent workouts including a decent 5 furlong one over here at Belmont. We see some very solid pedigree here and this barn is 23% over the past 5 years with first time starters in this type of allowance race. Also Clement is 27% with first time starters as well as having a very solid record with Joel up. #3 JILL’S A HOT MESS is the only horse with experience in this race which I usually rate as a massive leg up. The last race was nothing to be wow’d by but she did show some very solid speed from the gate. The barn is 3 for 7 when sending back out a horse who did not show in under 40 days from the previous race as well. Very solid at an 8/1 ML price.
Race 4: 1-3-5
This race is a bit of a stinker and seems fairly straightforward with #1 CHIEF KNOW IT ALL looking for 2 straight (5 if he doesn’t get DQ’d). Though I’m not a fan of the odds we may get on him, he’s won over half his races since switching back to dirt, ITM 3 out of 7 races at this distance with a win in there as well. We also see he should get a great trip with some tactical speed from the rail and I really love what Cardenas can bring to the table as a rider and trust him to get him home today, as he’s crossed the line first from the rail before. #3 SCARF IT DOWN has been very solid here at Belmont being ITM in 6 of 9 races, which is nice. The caveat is that none of those ITM finishes are wins and he’s 1 for his last 16. Saez is a good rider, his Belmont form is very solid, however there’s a reason I left him second here.
Race 5: 10-9-4
#10 VARIANT PERCEPTION has a very solid running line on the grass as we can throw out the dirt running lines. One of the wins has come over the turf here at Belmont and the overall grass running lines are very solid and some of the better ones in the field. We get Jose Ortiz up here which is a very solid rider upgrade and the workouts are consistent enough with some bullets in there. This race is fairly wide open but I feel confident with this pace set up for him here. #9 SHIRAZ is the favorite here and has some of the best Beyer’s in the field. He runs very well over this Belmont turf and well at this distance being ITM in every try at this distance. Saez is back up here which is very promising but he has had seconditis and that might continue.
Race 6: 10-3-2
#10 SHANDIAN is a very interesting play here at 15/1 ML. Just looking at the turf running lines we see two ITM finishes, some solid Beyer’s compared to the field and his best running is on the grass. One of his third place finishes was here at Belmont and that was also tied for his best Beyer. Last race I can draw a line through as he was brushed at the break and was held up not being able to get through. We see a very solid bullet workout on the last day of May and lastly his early speed with not a lot of it could get us a runner loose on the lead. #3 QUID has some very consistent running lines and they’re all on the turf. If Kendrick keeps him closer today then he can make a very nice run coming home. There are some very consistent workouts here as well after jumping back to a race where he’s for sale. Last time that happened he finished second.
Race 7: 5-1-2
#5 WINSTON’S CHANCE is a very interesting price play here as he has run second or better in all seven attempts at this distance. His Beyer’s are some of the best in the field and he is taking a step down in class today from an ungraded stakes. He has the tactical speed to keep up with the lone pacesetter and make a run when they’re turning for home to give him a run. Luis Saez jumps up today which is a nice rider upgrade and solid workouts makes me confident he can come back from the layoff. #1 ITS ALL RELEVANT is the favorite and going to be the pacesetter here and ran a fantastic race last time out. That day he ran very well and pulled away from the field, at this distance he does own a win but that was in here back in 2018. A valid favorite but I can’t settle for those odds when there are others here.
Race 8: 1-9-5
#1 MORNING COLORS is coming off a maiden win at the distance and ran a very solid and hard fought race. Today the trip looks very solid for her as there is some speed in front of her and she has the tactical speed to stalk them well. The workouts have been fairly consistent and Clement is 3 for 6 with maiden winners going a mile for the second time. Jockey/trainer stats are solid as well and we should get a solid trip here. #9 ASTORIA KITTEN gets an aggressive rider in Jose Lezcano who can take him from a further outside post to the front with her speed. Her one win came at the distance and here at Belmont. She’s taking a step down in class here but a lot of pace here might be her downfall.
Race 9: 6-2-3
We are going to go for the bomb here at 15/1 ML with #6 THE GREAT JOHANNA who is a constant New York runner. She may not have the best Beyer’s in the field but she does have 3 second place finishes in just as many races here at Belmont. She’s also 7 for 8 ITM at this distance and she has some very solid workouts. Her last race was her best Beyer and if she runs like she did last time out she could be very live at her odds. #2 RATAJKOWSKI has a win at this distance before and is 3 for 4 with a third in her attempts over this oval. She’s taking a step back down in class today which should fit her well. Jose Ortiz is back up which is a very solid look here and the jockey/trainer stats are fairly decent here as well.
Race 10: 6-11-4
Another wide open finale here at Belmont on the turf and I am unfortunately going to go with the chalk #6 ABBY NORMAL. She’s run very well at this distance being ITM in 5 of 7 attempts and 4 of 5 ITM runs here at Belmont. We get a rider upgrade here with Jose Ortiz who has done well on her before. We also see the best Beyer figures of the field and a lot of very decent races. #11 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS takes a nice drop in class here and showed some very solid speed last time out. The cut back in distance should help here as well as the prior race on the grass. Both of these are meek selections in what I said before is a wide open finale.