Welcome back to Belmont Park to begin the closing weekend of the meet. Last week I was MIA which I do apologize for but we are back and ready to close out the meet on a high note before heading to my ends, Saratoga! 9 Races on tap for us today and I will need to do some work to pull myself back to even or positive for the meet. But crazier things have happened. Let’s get hot and try to have a nice finish to the meet here!
Twitter: @EdPiluso
Bet/Returned:
$78/$66.10
Race 1: 7-1-2
#7 STEAL MY SUNSHINE is a first time starter coming off of a bullet workout over at Kenneland on the 4th of July. The barn is 28% with debut runners in maiden special weight races here at Belmont in turf sprints over the past 5 years. Trainer is 29% with first time starters as well and we get Irad up here who can secure his riding title today. #1 CONTAINED is an 8/1 ML shot with some very solid turf pedigree. The barn is 18% with first time starters on the turf. The work on June 18th is the same time as a first time starter from this barn who won a NY bred maiden on the grass.
Race 2: 5-8-3
#5 ZONIC ran a stinker last time out but I will look past that race happily. This horse is 5 for 7 ITM here at Belmont and ITM in all 3 races at this distance. This race is tied for a career low today and Eric Cancel jumps up after a very poor race last time. Horse is 13 for 19 over a fast track which is what we should have today. Workouts have been very consistent, the horse has run well this year and the pace sets up well here for him to make a run. #8 JAVELIN is a runner who has seconditis at Belmont as that is the only finished as good as second here. The last two races have been here and both were seconds at this same level. Has been ITM in all 5 races this year so include in the under’s.
Race 3: 4-6-5
This race isn’t too great but it seems fairly simple. #4 EBONY (FR) is coming over to the states for the first time today, meaning we get lasix for the first time today. Though this filly was 0 for 7 last year we did get 5 ITM finishes as well as 2 of 3 ITM at this distance. Trainer is 28% with foreign shippers running their first race on the grass in a route. Trainer is 3 for 6 here at Belmont out of that statistic. Irad should recognize the slow pace here and adapt. #6 SETTING THE MOOD comes back here at the same distance on the same track after running a meh race here. Johnny will need to keep her closer here today for her stalking trip with a slower pace. This horse should improve today I feel however I don’t believe it will be enough to outdo the top selection.
Race 4: 7-5-6
#7 BELLEZA ran a solid race and was the clear second best back at Aqueduct. She then went on the shelf and has been working very well and consistently. The pace here seems to set up very well for her running style here, there’s speed in front of here and she should be able to stalk that pace. Irad retains the mount which is very comforting and a fast track should help here. #5 ALLURE FORTUNE ran a bit of a stinker last time out and that seemed to be from her not getting to the front. She’s going to get some company up front but Junior will need to send her.
Race 5: 6-7-9
#6 QUIET OUT EAST has been ITM in all races he’s run at Belmont and is 6 for 7 ITM on the turf. The slight class drop here is favorable after that win last time out and his ability speed out of the gate gives Manny options here. He may end up on the front but if he doesn’t then he can sit right off the leader and make a good run at what should be a slower pace. We see very solid works since that last race and the trainer over the last 5 years is 17 for 33 (51.5%) with runners staying on the grass who won less than 50 days ago. I’m very confident in this horse here. #7 UHTRED has run 2 of 3 ITM at Belmont and ITM in all races at this distance. Javier jumping up is a huge addition here and that race last time out off the shelf was needed clearly. Today this colt should be more ready to go and I’m loving this exacta here, sending on this race.
Race 6: 6-10-4
I’m going with percentages here as Linda Rice has unbelievable 2nd start numbers. #6 BACK CHANNEL ran extremely well last time out and was a clear 2nd place finisher. Linda Rice in 14 races with second time filly starter who were ITM in their first race in New York, has 10 wins, yes you read that correctly, 10 wins. 13 out of those 14 races they finished ITM as well. That last race was very solid as well as having a bullet last workout, being backed by that, I’m sending here. #10 HARLEM HEIGHTS gets Jose Ortiz up here which should help him, blinkers are on which will be beneficial for the horse to clear from the outside post. This filly showed talent last fall when she ran and Shug has some very solid numbers here. 25% going route to sprint, 19% with adding blinkers as well.
Race 7: 3-2-5
#3 ON BASE is coming off of a maiden win at this distance over in Tampa and he stalked the pace perfectly then went clear. With only two prior races this horse has a good amount of room to improve here which I love against a field where I don’t really love anybody. We get Javier up here and he should be able to sit off the pace of the leader and make a nice run, a small improvement here could beat the rest of this field pretty handily. #2 ASSIDUOUSLY (GB) is adding blinkers here which is promising as Chad Brown is 23% adding blinkers to turf routers over the last 5 years. Irad is up here which is very promising and there is room for improvement here which again is what I very much enjoy. He might have needed a race after that 4 month layoff.
Race 8: 5-3-2
I really tried to play against the chalk, but ultimately I landed on #5 MRS. DANVERS. She ran well on this track last time out and ran on well after the wire. I expect there to be some more improvement here, Jose jumps up which is nice that we still get a top level jockey. Shug is 28% going sprints to routes and that bullet work right before this race is promising. Second off the layoff here and this horse looks to be much the best in this one. #3 THE GREAT JOHANNA ran in an ungraded stake and was no match last time out. The drop in class here is very promising and this horse really loves the trip. She’s run 2nd at Belmont three ties in four races, not a bad play here at 8/1 ML.
Race 9: 10-2-6
I think this #10 WICKED HAPPY is very interesting here. Last time out is the only race I’m looking at as it was her first time running on the grass. That race was a very honest 4th place but look at the trip that day. Four wide on the backside, 5 wide at the top of the lane, and still finishing 4th at 88/1. That ride was poor and yes, we do get the same jockey up here but showing more speed and a better ride, plus some improvement here which with tactical speed is very dangerous here. #2 FLEET STEPPER looks very solid here and has much room to improve after a decent showing first time out. Manny jumps back up here and there was trouble at the start in that last race. There is tactical speed here and she’s working consistently to how she did before the last time out which is promising.