Hope I am not ruining things, but we have been hot this year. Let’s keep this good thing going. I will be trackside all day so please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends, which is likely today.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 2,5 / 2,3,5 / 2 / 3,7,8 / 1,7 = $18
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 2,3,5 / ALL / 2,3 / 1,2,3,7,8 / 1,7 = $210
Race 1- 2-5-3
#2- Professor Snape- The likely favorite will return back to his favorite track and favorite distance. Rudy won with this horse in this exact same spot about a month ago and there is no reason to think he won’t repeat. The only concern is the pressure he may get from Maimo. If he does receive pressure early, look for #5 Sol The Freud capitalize on the early pace. The former jail move winner is perfectly posted outside and ready to pounce if there is a battle upfront. #3 Maimo has a right to improve getting back to a fast track. He clearly does not like the wet stuff and is placed right outside of my top pick so he will dictate if he wants to fight for the lead or stalk. He actually rates a better chance to win by stalking but the bug may get a bit aggressive. These 3 and no more should get you easily out of the Pick 5
Race 2- 3-5-6-8
This is a great wide open race full of MCL on turf. Those that have read my articles know that these are the races that are usually ripe for a price. Here is a full breakdown of each runner; all of which have a shot to win.
#1- Miss Rombauer- A lot happening here with this horse for Abreu. Dropping and taking the blinks off hoping to liven this horse up. This 375k purchase suggest there is some talent but she has not shown her ability as of yet. Could she waken up? Absolutely. Do I want 7/2 on her in a race this wide open? No.
#2- Dolores Westworld- The wise guy pick will probably be less than 4/1 as the strong part of the uncoupled Abreu entry. She is another dropping in class and removing the hood but she has shown no early speed in a race that seems to be lacking. She might get a piece but I can’t endorse at this price.
#3- Tabor Fleet- Anyone know the average payout price for a MCL on turf the past 4 years? It is just over $21. This horse will be at least 10-1. Check. She should appreciate the extra distance and didn’t run a bad first race considering the trip she got that day. With the stretchout, firm course and a little experience behind her, this is the price horse I want in this wide open field.
#4- Matcha- I like the fact they protected her last time after debuting at the MCL level. However she was clearly overmatched in her first race after the layoff. She has a little early speed which definitely helps on this circuit. Can’t ignore even with the bug on her.
#5- Blue Jean Kitten- If this wasn’t a MCL on turf, she would be my top pick. However I struggling picking favorites in races like this. Still, the deadly combo of Gargan and Carmouche is always dangerous and this is a horse that can easily wire this field if they let her get away.
#6- Kicking Kimberly- She does not like to win races but seems to find a way to get into the superfecta. She is one of the few older horses in a race full of 3yos. I can’t see her winning but she is a nice horse to key underneath
#8- Ghosting- The Mile Master finds a way to win and this firster is not facing world beaters. Barclay Tagg usually does not have them ready first time out and it is not a good sign that she is in for 40k after paying 150k for her in August.
Race 3- 2-3
#2- Rumor Driven- Should be able to walk around the track against these as the lone speed.
Race 4-8-7-3
#8- Two Graces- I want to take a small shot here with a decent price. Her first effort on the grass was not bad and the winner that day just won yesterday. She deserves another chance on the green and may not be the best horse, but it does not mean she isn’t the best value.
#7- Pecatonica- The lone firster does not need much to beat this crew. The workout pattern leaves something to be desired.
#3- Amarone- She is facing the easiest field in her 4 year career and is capable of winning as the chalk.
Race 5-1-7-4
#1- Keota- I really like this filly today. Her 3 best races have come on this track and gets one of the most underrated routing turf jocks on her. I am a little concerned she needs a little give on the track but the speed figures fit.
#7- Purely Lucky- My wife is waiting for me to finish this write-up tonight and the kids are in bed. If I can finish the write up in time, this horse might be my namesake. But you didn’t come here to read that, you came for winners. This horse for Cox will be forwardly placed and has had success off the bench before.
#4- Codrington- Gargan and Carmouche work their magic.
Race 6- 8-6-2
#8- Uncle Sigh- Full transparency is I used to own this horse and have a soft spot for him. Despite that, he is only a couple of days away from a jail move here and he is coming into the race off an easy 7 length victory. He will have the perfect post to stalk from the outside and see if Alvarado can put the favorite away. He has never been off the board at this track.
#6- Minksy Moment- This horse will be around 4/5 come post time but I can’t endorse a horse who has only raced once in two years and has lost 5 races out of 7 as the favorite. Is it possible he is just a wet track specialist?
#2- Dynamax Prime- Rob Atras got this horse in a private purchase and rarely runs a bad race. Would not surprise.
Race 7- 5-8-3
Another wide open race had me landing on my old trainer Robert Falcone Jr. He has two good races and two bad races. The two good races came on firm tracks. The two bad races came with give in the ground. With a firm course, I think you see the best of this 3yo filly who should be forwardly placed. If you are looking for a price, look no further than #8 Zandora. I love the fact that Cox won with this horse in a race that was wiped off the turf, and then gets her right back on the green. It would be very easy to keep the horse on the dirt after a 12 length win, but Cox really wants this won on the grass despite showing nothing first time out. I think this one will pop at a big price. #3 Call Me Kayla should be forwardly placed and gets the jockey from his best race back.
Race 8-3-5-2
Single with confidence
Race 9- 9-1-7
#9 Seven is Heaven will be my top pick after running an interesting first race. Watch the race and you will see she dropped far back, only to make a big move and then drop back and still had some run in her. Rice usually does not have them cranked up first time out and it probably didn’t help she was breaking from the 1 hole. Expect a big improvement 2nd time out.
#1- Light the Posse- This will be my “what the hell was he thinking” pick in the money. I have been waiting for this 4yo to get back on the track after chasing wide on a few bias tracks. He gets a big jockey upgrade and should be able to hug the rail the entire way to at least catch a piece, with an outside to win as a huge bomb. Just hit the board please.
#7- Cyber Currency- Brown/ Ortiz/ Klaravich…blah blah blah.