Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends, which is likely today.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 2 / 2,3,5 / 4,6,7 / 1,3,4 / 12 = $13.50
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 1,2 / 2,3,5,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7 / 1,3,4 /1,12 = $150
Race 1- 2-1-6
#2- Planet Traiblazer – Winner of 4 of his last five looks like a standout on paper. The only concern is the lack of pace in the race to set up his winning move.
#1- Call Me- If the top choice is going to falter, here is your likely winner. He could get loose on the lead and his best race was on this track, albeit in the slop.
#6- Papa Zulu- Lost to my top pick last time out by 13 lengths. He has hit the board in just under half his starts, so this is a good horse to key underneath. Carmouche and Gargan are a great combo to support.
Race 2- 5-3-2
Despite Chad Brown having two horses in this race, it is a wide open affair. Any of the 2,3,5,6 & 7 have a shot in here and must be respected.
#2- Value Engineering – Chad Brown’s “A” horse will be looking to win off the bench which is one of Brown’s strong angles. 1st time out, he lost to a next out winner. He has a right to win off that outing.
#3- Exult- Chad Brown’s other horse has been used to being the bridesmaid in all 3 of her outings. They hope the addition of the hood will get this horse involved earlier and giving him less work to do late. He has a very nice late kick but will he get there in time?
#5- Wild Medagliad’oro- My top pick ran an impressive race last time out, which was his first on the turf and first off a long layoff. That race looks like a prep race and Mark Casse does a great job stretching them out. At 9-2 this horse looks like a bargain.
#6- Downside Risk- This horse looks like a carbon copy of Exult. He has had some rough trips and has every right to run a big race.
#7- The Last Zip- Not the fastest horse in the field but I can see a situation where Rosario walks the dog around the track and wires this field.
Race 3- 7-6-3
She may win but I do not get the ML odds on Tiz R Bella. She is clearly a turf horse and they are clearly giving up on this one by dropping her in to the lowest level (no one is going to claim her at the 25k bottom level on turf). So I will look to a few prices to liven this p5 up.
#7- Aly’s All Out- This will be my tepid top pick based on what I think her ceiling is. The last time she got a clear break she took the field wire to wire. With only one other speed horse (#6), she can win with a clean break. Having the outside post should help her avoid early trouble, but will also make it hard to clear.
#6- Dazzling Speed- The most likely scenario is that this horse is your pace setter with the ultra aggressive Carmouche signed on. The cutback should help and if the 7 continues her gate troubles, this one can walk around the track.
#3- Third Card Down- She has gotten through this condition in 9 tries and it is hard to envision her doing it here in this spot. This is a horse who likes to come from the clouds and need a pace meltdown. Not a likely winner but a great horse to key underneath for 3rd and 4th.
Race 4- 1-4-3
These 3 and no more in the P5.
#1- Scottish Jig- Looks like she could be a decent runner after running against better across the pond. May need a race.
#4- Osare- Another with a lot of talent and should be forwardly placed. She is another that might need a race.
#3- War Cabinet- Could be sitting on a big race after just losing to Chipolata.
Race 5- 12-10-1/1a
#12- Niko’s Dream- This will be one of my key horses in both pick 5’s. Alvarado is deadly at the mile distance and this horse has frankly run the best races. The outside post will be tricky but she has shown the ability to overcome the outside post in the past.
#10- Bangle Gal- An interesting price horse for Michael Stidham who does a nice job with horses stretching out and changing surfaces.
Entry- If both parts of the entry get in, they will both be dangerous. The 1a may be the only speed horse in the race and the 1 is capable of a big effort 2nd time out. Must respect.
Race 6- 5-3-1
#5- Dark Storm- Didn’t show much first time out but George Weaver has huge numbers dropping horses from the MSW company to the MCL company.
#3- Mental Model- Chad Brown is jumping this one up in price despite losing last time out. Throw him out at your own peril
#1- Zorbed- I am probably a glutton for punishment but I think this one has some talent. Rudy is another who does well with this type of drop and switch in surface.
Race 7- 6-7-5
#6- Abiding Star- This is going to be my single in the Late p5. He looks like the lone speed and his best races have come on this course, racing against better. He is clearly a horse that does not like any give in it and the track should be hard as a rock with the weather we have had of late.
#7- Harv Won’t Tap- He has been getting better and faster each time out for Stidham. Another improvement off his last race will make him tough in this spot but it is likely he will have to overcome a slow pace.
#5- Applicator- I usually love jail moves with Rudy Rodriguez but not on the turf and claiming away from Brad Cox. Still must respect on back class alone.
Race 8- 4-7-6
#4- Bingwa- Looks tough in this spot. Two back she lost by a half length to Preamble who was a next out winner and the favorite in a Grade 3 yesterday at Pimlico. This one is fast.
#7- Sinwaan- He might be the wise guy horse and is projected to stalk my top pick. She can improve off her last, and will need to in order to win, but I never like banking on horses who last won on an off track.
#6- Chamber- Won convincingly on this track in September, albeit in the slop. Chad Brown has taken his time with this filly and it would not surprise if this was her coming out party. She was supposed to be one of Chad Brown’s stars at Saratoga last year.
Race 9- 13-7-8-16