Happy Mother’s Day to all of my readers. Hopefully the Daddy of NYRA can bring you some winners on Mother’s Day. I have handicapped for a sloppy track and no turf racing. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends, which is likely today.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 4,5 / 1,2,5 / 3 / 2 / 4,5,8 = $9
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – ALL / 1,2,5 / 3,6,7 / 2,6 / 4,5,8 = $162
Race 1- 5-4-3
#5- T Loves a Fight- This horse will look to rebound off losing as the favorite last time out while in the mud. That day she broke from the 1 hole on a day you probably wanted to be outside. She is clearly not the same horse when she was in the Michelle Nevin barn but she is my tepid pick in the opener. It is worth noting that Carmouche and Cox are 6 for 7 early in this meet and hitting at a ridiculous 42% for the year.
#4- Orpheus- This 8 year gelding clearly likes an off track and likes this distance. His lack of early speed leaves him a lot to do, but she should be flying late in the slop. Saez jumps aboard for his 5th jockey in his last 5 races.
#3- Maimo- Unlike Orpheus, it would appear he needs a fast track. However he should be alone on the lead and that might be enough to overcome his fear of the wet stuff.
Race 2- 5-1-2
#5- Jemography- I do think this favorite is vulnerable and is far from a single. However check the early doubles to see if “they” are making him a lock. I have really liked shippers from OP and FG and this one fits the bill. He should be forwardly placed and is likely faster than these.
#1- Bustin Short- You know I must love this horse to place him this high with Luzzi aboard. However, I can’t resist 15-1 on this horse who took plenty of action first time out before he was eased. Bustin Stones are generally fast and fast early. You have to think Luzzi will send breaking from the 1 hole and that should be enough to make him a factor if he breaks well.
#2- Laughing Manners- It would not surprise me if this horse goes off the favorite on the big drop in class and showing some early speed. Buyer beware (Baker is 1-22 when adding blinkers)
Race 3- 3-7-6 (DIRT ONLY)
#3- Slimey – If this race is off the green as anticipated, this might be my single in the early pick 5. Her lone win was on the dirt and has shown some success in the wet stuff. If the track is playing fair, she should be flying late. If you can’t close, then you must downgrade.
#7- Athwaaq- The likely favorite has failed the last two times as a heavy favorite and now Linda Rice is putting this one up for a tag. All the signs say stay away despite being the one to beat.
#6- Awe Honey- Should be a nice price and I want to give this one another chance after getting wiped out at the gate last time out. The cutback should help and I expect this one to show some early speed which is lacking in this race. I have seen worse 12-1 shots. I will be keying up and down.
Race 4- 2-6-5
#2- Lion Dance- He scratched out of a tough spot on Saturday to run here. Usually a great angle. Looking at his past two races, you will see nothing but live horses and next out winners including a horse that will be one of the favorites for the Preakness (Signalman) and some horse that won the Derby (Country House). The cutback is a bit of a concern off the long layoff. Hopefully this is not a prep and they are ready to roll.
#6- Sneakiness- I really like this horse in this spot today if my top pick doesn’t show up. Ran a distant third to a good horse in Fortin Hill and next out winner, Family Biz. He will have the perfect post and should sit right off the leader and ready to pounce.
#5- Fortune’s Fool- Is capable of showing early speed, but with Irad and his lack of aggression I would tred lightly.
Race 5- 8-5-4-1
#8- Poker Game- Here is my crazy play of the day. This 10-1 ML shot is a jail move for Kantarmaci who does decent with this move. He will get blinkers for the first time and I hope this gets him involved a bit earlier. His two best races have come on off tracks and Reyes does well with this outfit. It is worth a shot in a race where I don’t fully trust the chalk.
#5- Rally Cap- He will have to get more distance which might be a problem considering he has shown some stamina issues. This is partly the reason he has failed as a favorite in 3 of his 6 lifetime races. He is the fastest horse, but will he be there in the end?
#4- Stink Man- Another Linda Rice dropper which I am not crazy about, but this is still a 2nd off the jail move angle. Not sure what happened last time out but willing to forgive and see if he can run a race similar to his maiden try.
#1- Jack Bo- Another jail move but not the strongest angle. Will be a “c” horse for me.
Race 6- 14-15-2 (DIRT ONLY)
#14- Shamrock Kid- Read my notes from Race 1 about Cox and Carmouche. I have also been waiting for this horse to get back to MTO races. Will be a single on my late P4 tickets.
#15- Tiz No Bluff- The other MTO horse is moving up in class a bit off a loss which is an angle I like. He likes to cash checks but is not a fan of taking that picture. He might also be better on a fast track.
#2- Rockin Jo- Another jail move, but not as strong since they were pointing toward the turf. He should be flying early and there will not be much speed on paper if this is on the dirt. Very dangerous and worth a play if they let him go off anywhere near his ML price.
Race 7- 6-1-2
#6- Saguaro Row- I am really excited to bet this horse if it is races on the slop. Although he has never run on an off track, his sire is Union Rags and also has Indian Charlie in the blood lines. The horse my sprout wings in the mud. I would also expect an improvement going 2nd off the long layoff.
#1- Bluegrass Jamboree- She will be a very heavy favorite off her 8 length win two back. However she looked bad in the slop last time out. Her best races have come off a layoff and it is reasonable to think she will be live today.
#2- Summer Punch- Has hit the board in 9 straight and should excel in the slop. Do not ignore.
Race 8- 4-1-3
#4- Much Better- His race to lose. Baffert doesn’t send them to NY unless they are ready to be in the winner’s circle.
Race 9- 16-8-14