Race 1
1 – Girl of Tosconova – if you include the heavy favorite there are three speed types in here that should make the pace very hot early. Junior Alvarado gets the mount for a filly dropping back into allowance company from the grade-two ranks and I like her chances to take advantage of the speed duel. 1-2-7
Race 2
1 – Aris Gal Suz – made the first start on turf and was very unimpressive in doing so, but Michelle Nevin does well with maiden-second-timers and I like the turf-to-dirt angle with an aggressive rider like Manny Franco. Certainly going to get a good price, so hopefully she pops from the gate and gets near the lead in a weak field that’s lacking pace. 1-8-5.
Race 3
2 – Happy Farm – should get tons of pressure from the inside, but I like that he won his last race in allowance company, took the summer off and comes in off the layoff in the claiming ranks. It feels like the right spot for Servis to get the five year-old gelding back in action, and I think he takes them gate to wire today. 2-1-5
Race 4
7 – On a Spree – ran two pretty nice races upstate over the summer and comes back to Belmont sporting a positive rider change from Maragh to Alvarado. Has sat stalking trips in the last two and should get a little bit of pace to run at in here today. Using the Chad Brown first-timer to complete the exacta. 7-5-4
Race 5
1 – Hemlock – Bill Mott looks to have this one cranked up after a solid debut at Saratoga in an off-turf situation. He’ll intentionally run him on the dirt today and appears to have the inside speed. Will get a good price if the Pletcher or Chad runners take most of the money, so let’s give this one a shot. 1-3-7
Race 6
6 – Proportionality – in a race full of claimers moving up or back into allowance ranks, this Ray Handal filly has been knocking at this level in her last four starts (at four different tracks). She could find herself loose on the lead and I love Manny Franco in the irons for such an occasion. 6-3-1.
Race 7
1 – The J Y – obviously enjoys the Belmont lawn as he’s four for six locally, draws inside with a stalk-and-pounce style and cuts back to his preferred sprint distance. Last two efforts very promising and Franco stays aboard. 1-4-2
Race 8 – Grand Prix American Jockey Club Invitational, $300k
4 – Realm – pretty salty group here but I like the Barclay Tagg gelding to potentially work a trip as the lone speed, or at least be near the front on soft fractions. There are some nice late runners in here, but will they go quick enough? I’ll take a swing with the runner coming off two 90+ speed figures, the last of which against Preservationist and Catholic Boy. 4-5-1
Race 9 – Jockey Club Oaks Invitational, $750k
2 – Romantic Pursuit – hasn’t done anything wrong for the McLaughlin barn and has hit the exacta in both tries over the Belmont sod. Usually forwardly-placed and gets the jockey upgrade to the more aggressive Saez today. Huge price too…. 2-8-1
Race 10 – Jockey Club Derby Invitational, $1mil
1 – A Thread Of Blue – well it looks like Kiaran and Luis are going to have a pretty fantastic late afternoon in Elmont huh? I LOVE this guy to break quick and never look back, as it appears there might not be any challengers up front. The distance could be challenging, but if he can walk them down the backstretch he’s proven before that he’ll have plenty in the lane. Watch for Chad flying late of course…. 1-8-5
Race 11
1-5-8
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 393: 96-76-65, -16.2% ($786 wagered, $673.80 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 24.4%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 60.3%