Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, September 19, 2020, by Ivan Lopez

We are back at Big Sandy, and a very nice ten race card is in store, with the Grade I Belmont Oaks Invitational serving as the feature for this first Saturday of the Fall meet. Let’s take a look at the card:

1st race: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000 Purse $46,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

3-1-6

Playwright will run second time for Linda Rice, now in a one turn configuration, which is much more favorable for him. Lezcano will ride for his main customer and the cutback will serve him nicely. Zonic is making the “twice the tag” jump, and this is always a sign of confidence from the connections. Stakes are higher now, but numbers wise, he fits in here. Just Right has burned some money lately, but he should be part of that first flight and has been knocking at the door against similar.

2nd race: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) ™‘Mdn 52k Purse $52,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

4-2-5

Certainly, if this race stays on the grass, Snicket will be very hard to beat. She returns to the turf in which she feels much more comfortable and should be pressing the early leader, who should be Monificient. Now with blinkers on, she will be carving up the fractions early and if she is let loose easy, she can be dangerous. Tiny Magoo completes the selection, trying the lawn for the first time, if she takes to it you can’t deny her the chance for the win. 

3rd race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x Purse $67,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $11,658

NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

3-1-6

Spirit Animal ran very uncomfortable down inside in his most recent, Castellano should have learn ed from that and give him more space to run. Looks to be a very hard horse to beat in here. Conviction Trade will take a slight cut back in distance, and seems to me he is much better at Belmont that at the Spa. Should be at that first flight from the start. Three Technique didn’t show much in his turf debut, but with a dry surface can be dangerous. 

4th race; 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L Purse $26,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES

8-3-6

Mine the Coin returns to sprinting, and in that last try in a similar distance, he just missed. Saez takes the call, and the outside post will be beneficial for him.  Flying Finish was way overmatch against allowance runners, now takes a reality check drop in class, and just for that he needs to be considered. Big Boy Mo didn’t display any speed on his most recent. Now takes a sharp drop in class and I don’t see much speed signed in here, so I will bet that he will show that speed that he showed before, and can take them wire to wire.

5th race: 1 1/4 Mile. (Inner Turf) ™BelOksIn-G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational S. Grade I. Purse

$250,000 INNER TURF AN INVITATIONAL FOR FILLIES, THREE-YEARS-OLD.

5-2-1

The key for this race will be if Antoinette can take her speed that additional half a furlong. Looks like she will not have any speed opposition. Magic Attitude is a Grade III winner in France and has run well in Grade I competition. If she is the type of horse that generally comes from Europe, she can be pace compromised. Setting the Mood has shown some affinity for the longer trips. If she can step it up a notch, she can upset this field.

6th race: 1 Mile. Mdn 63k Purse $63,000 (UP TO $11,136 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. 

6-1-3

Engrave showed some ability against the very good Calibrate, after being bumped at the start. Now has a better post, and second time out should be much better. The Pletcher entry is powerful, with Known Agenda working greta for his debut and Likeable, who had a very nice debut run in an off the turf race. Rational Choice is the other Chad Brown, so we cant overlook him at all. 

7th race: 1 Mile. (Turf) ™Mdn 63k Purse $63,000 (UP TO $11,136 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS,

FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

9-6-4

I like what I see from the work tab of Island Treasure, and her dam was a stakes winner on the grass. Shug Mc Gaughey enjoying a great 2020 so far, and Johnny V in the irons. Amortization comes from the Chad Brown army on the grass, and that alone tells you the story. Leave out of your bets at your own risk. Momentita didn’t run bad at all in her debut at Monmouth, and I like the move from Matz to take her to a higher ranked circuit. Watch out!!

8th race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘Alw 55000n1x Purse $55,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE

YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

6-1-7

I will take a gamble here with Firenze Freedom, second time out of the Jason Servis barn, and she seemed to struggle a bit with the mud on her return race. I like that Lezcano rides her back and she will come flying in the stretch. Flashpackinbarbie and Blichton Lady form a very potent combo, anyone of them can win in their own rights and a very hot trainer over the last month or so. Bankers Daughter won her maiden last time out and can be a case of the light bulb angle, after eight tries. 

9th race: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) ‘OC 40000n2x Purse $59,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND

UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

7-11-3

If Maxwell Esquire repeats that last effort, in which he was boxed in at the rail for a good part of the trip, he will be a very tough beat on Saturday. Bustin Shout can be the speed of the speed here and Seaz has been riding great, especially at turf sprints. Outside post only helps his chances. Cal Me Harry will sport blinkers for the first time, and Johnny V., who rode him last time out, repeats in him, so probably as his recommendation. Watch out for him. 

10th race: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) ‘MC 40000 Purse $38,000 INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS,

THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

6-4-7

On the Couch drops from staright maidens to maiden claimers, and his trainer hits at 33% first time claiming race and at 38% adding blinkers. He will be prominent from the gitgo. Fast Gordon is another one taking the proverbial steepest drop in the game, and he didn’t disgrace himself on his first turf experience. Definite contender.  Mommies Jewel has been close in this same level, Carmouche loves to send them early and with a bit of improvement, can take them wire to wire. 

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