Race 1: 3,4,7
There are plenty of negatives about Dubai Bobby to fade him at this short 3-5 ML price and I looked to do so but ultimately landed on him after failing to find an alternative I was confident in. His one turf start which was in his debut race was better than any race the rest of this field has ever run and if he runs back to or improves off that turf effort for his 2nd start on the grass the rest are running for 2nd. Big red flag though is that the connections paid 90K for this 2 year old back in April but now are willing to lose him for only 40K after only earning a little over 10K in earnings. My recommendation for the early Pick 5 is to either single him or fade him and if you fade him I would use most of this field as there are no real standouts here.
Race 2: 5,1,3
I was a big fan of Elegant Rose back on closing day at Saratoga against similar company going 7f where she just came up short. Today Navarro is cutting her back to 6-1/2f which I think will make the difference. She has shown the ability to stalk and she has early speed to take off early if no one else wants the lead. She also adds Kendrick and I know he has been struggling to find the winners circle but he is still finishing in the money 33% of the time this meet.
Race 3: 5,6,2
Appletini was my top pick back on 9/11 and I am not getting off her now. She is going the same distance she just won at easily and is going against a weaker field today. Yes she will be a shorter price today than she was last time out but beggars can’t be choosers right?! I am going to single this one on my multi race tickets.
Race 4: 3,1,2
1-1 and 9-5 are tough prices to take on maiden NY bred horses in my opinion but there is no question that Stretchthestory and Mazal Eighteen are the horses to beat in this spot. I landed on Mazal Eighteen on top as she has improved over her first two starts on the turf and I expect improvement today. She also looked solid at this distance back on 9/13 here at Belmont last time out and gets Irad back in the irons today.
Race 5: 9,8,4
I am giving Whiskey Is My Wine another shot today after he had a very troubled trip back on 9/13 and still managed to make up enough ground to get 3rd. Today he gets added distance which I think he should appreciate based on the pedigree and it is a good sign that Irad is staying in the irons.
Race 6: 5,4,8
I don’t like taking short prices on Chad Brown horses on the dirt, especially his older dirt horses but Financialstability improved so much between his first and 2nd start that in my mind he was a play back against similar which he is facing today. He has shown early speed and the ability to rate in his first 2 career starts which makes him dangerous against this field, especially if he can sit and stalk right outside of the speed which there is plenty of in this spot.
Race 7: 3,6,1
Chalky pick of the day but I am big on Pivotal Connection (GB) today for Bill Mott. She improved from her 4 to 5 year old season off the long layoff and today is stretching out which I love to see on turf and is getting class relief again as last year as a 4 year old she ran into some eventual stakes winners. If she runs back to her race on 9/13 she should win this one with no issues.
Race 8: 3,7,6
I am not confident that any of the early speed in this race will be able to hold on for the win here, so I landed on Run for Boston. I don’t think he will take much money, so I bet we get every bit of the 5-1 morning line price on him, but his last 2 starts at Belmont have been good enough in my opinion to beat this field. If the pace collapses here like I think it will he should be coming late. With that said though I am not that confident in this horse as he has burned a lot of money in his career so I am using the All button here on my late Pick 4 and 5.
Early Pick 5: 3 / 1,3,5 / 5 / 1,2,3,8 / 2,3,4,8,9
$30.00 Ticket for $0.50 Play
Late Pick 5: 1,3 / 2,3,4,8 / 4,5 / 3 / All
$64.00 Ticket for $0.50 Play
Good Luck and follow @PicksByDynasty for updates due to scratches and multi race plays.