Belmont park Racing Analysis- Saturday Oct 12 2019- By Ivan Lopez

I offered to cover for my good friend Mike for today’s card at Big Sandy, in which the Grade II Sands Point is the main entrée. So let’s pick up some winners. 

1st race: Maiden Claiming $30,000. 2 year old fillies (Dirt)

Tiz Epic (7) debuted at just a tad higher price and got up for place at Monmouth Park. Now Weaver brings her to his home base and his go to rider, Manny Franco, has the assignment. She looks tough to beat here in the opener. Annoula (1) has a work tab good enough to score right off the bat. Jimmy Jerkens is not known for debuting his horses at the maiden claiming level, but this one seems to be ready to contend right off the bench. Bow Maker (2) ran for more than twice the claiming tag she is on for today, and Linda Rice performs a surface switch after not doing much first time out. There is not much quality in this bunch of fillies, so she doesn’t need a lot of improvement to be a contender, and Lezcano and Rice are a 24% combo. 

2nd race: 1 1/16 mile. Claiming $40,000. Fillies, three year olds. (Turf)

Decorated Ace (5) was parked at the outside in her latest, now, with only six runners in the field, should have a much more nicer trip, and I suspect Temper’s Way (3) will have company in that first flight from Seaside Dancer. Joe Bravo should stalk them from a cozy garden spot position and pounce them from the three sixteenth pole on. Temper’s Way is more dangerous if she can clear this field, I am not sure she can do it, but her chances are reasonable anyway. Positive Skew (1) will run her second race for new trainer David Cannizzo, I expect an improved effort on her part, as she is the best closer of this bunch. 

3rd race: 6 furlongs. Claiming $25,000. Three year olds and upward. (Dirt)

Mo Diddley (2) answered every question about his dismal performance at Saratoga by wiring the field at half the price he will run today. Now he comes from the rail again and apprentice Rodriguez will try to go wire to wire once again. Belmont is his favorite track, with 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts. Blue Belt (6)’s last race is good enough for considering him the favorite, but his problem is that he seems to be allergic to the finish pole, with no wins in almost a year. Has a nice outside post and should be watching the duel unfold, if a duel happens. Gypsum Johnny (1a) had some issues at the start of his most recent, and came flying late. The six furlongs are maybe short for him, but his entry mate can make things easier for him by forcing a quick enough pace for him to close into. 

4th race: 6 furlongs. Allowance N1X. Fillies and mares three year olds and upward. (Turf)

Honey I’m Good (3) seems to be one of the two main speed balls in this event, and Joel Rosario can sit right off the #7 horse, who should take the early lead, then have the first punch in her and try to withstand the late push from the closers. Peaceful (5) deserves the favorite’s role, but there are two important changes with her: the jockey and the trainer. Her speed figures say she should win, but some question marks with those two factors mentioned. Zalia (2) goes second time for the barn of trainer Bill Mott, who hits at a 23% clip 2nd time out. She needs a hot pace for her late run to be effective; the circumstances do not help his style of running. 

5th race: 7 furlongs. Claiming $32,000. For three year olds. (Dirt)

Brush County (7) won the last time he faced these same group and Rosario will put him in contention, watching the front runners do their stuff. The race sets up perfectly for him from theta cozy outside post.  Seanow (1) drops slightly, from $40 to $32 and looks to put some daylight in this field from the start. Linda Rice has gotten off to a slow starts in this meeting. I expect her to warm up considerably over the next two weeks or so, and this is a good time to start the rebounding. Lezcano teams up again with Linda. Mandatory Payout (3) is showing signs of slow improvement over his last three races, and is now under the care of trainer James Ryerson, who hits at a 25% clip 1st time out. His best races have come here at Belmont. 

6th race: 6 furlongs. Maiden Special Weight. For two year olds (Turf)

Turbo Drive (5) takes a good cutback in distance, so stamina should be at it’s peak. He should be part of that early flight, maybe second right behind the #7 and with Rosario on the turf, he should be right there at the end. I expect an improvement from Big Package (2). In his debut, he ran like a horse that was running to gain further conditioning. The Big Browns run very well and notice that Manny Franco rides back, preferring him to the George Weaver horse. Boom Boom Kaboom (7) showed nice early foot in his debut, now he comes from a better port and Cancel takes back the call. 

7th race: 6 furlongs. The Floral Park. Fillies and Mares, three year olds and upward. (Turf)

Goldwood (6) was cross entered at Keeneland and they opted for this race, in my opinion for good reason. The pace scenario should favor this filly and Jose Ferrer ships in from Monmouth for the ride. She is looking for her sixth consecutive win. I’llhandalthecash (5) is slowly but surely improving and looks like there is a lot more in the tank from what she showed last time out. The stakes are much tougher now, but this is a confident move that I love to see from trainers. Monimou (7) ran them off their feet at the beginning of the Saratoga meeting. She has been freshened by her trainer James Toner and her works leading up to this race indicate she should fire another good shot.

8th race: 7 furlongs. Maiden Special Weight. (Dirt)

Extreme Force (7) has been starting from extremely tough pasts in the gate, versus horses that will be big favorites in here, like Green Light Go and Three Technique. Now he drew the number seven post, much more comfortable and adds blinkers for this run, and Jose Lezcano keeps going to the pond with him. Perjury Trap (1) had his fort run at Monmouth and now Chad Brown sends him to a better circuit, a sign of confidence. Manny Franco will be looking for the lead at all costs from that rail post. Starting Over (5) debuted at a mile and now trainer Jonathan Thomas takes a cutback to seven panels, looking for his colt to show a lil more stamina. 

9th race: 1 1/8 mile. The Grade II Sands Point. For three year old fillies. (Turf)

Feel Glorious (4) has the best running lines in this group. She has been facing much more seasoned fillies that the ones that join her here and the pace should be swift enough for her to close. Junior Alvarado and Christophe Clement team at a 26% effectiveness rate. Dyna Passer (1) has specialized in running longer trips than this one, so the cutback to nine furlongs will be appreciated. She drew a very cozy inside post, so let’s see how Jose Lezcano maneuvers to avoid traffic when all the running starts. Romantic Pursuit (6) is the best of the early runners, she is another filly that will love the cutback to nine panels, and her speed makes her dangerous, especially with a hard enough grass. 

10th race: 1 Mile. Allowance 50000S. For three year olds and upward. (Turf)`

La Hara (1) looked like a much better horse than the 40,000 claiming price he was risked for in his debut. He was tons the best and now Chad Brown climbs the ladder with him, and the pace should set his late run very nicely. Joel Rosario can cap off a great day with a win here. Inscom (10) won his most recent in a race in which he did all the dirty work from the gitgo and prevailed for a hard fought victory. The outside post is not an advantage at all, but he should run well in here. Tiz Morning (5) was running against Annals of Time two back, gets a relief in class and now runs in a distance much more suitable to his means. 

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