$2 Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) – 6 / 2,4,8 / 4,5,6 / 4 / 1,2 = $36
.50 Late Pick 5 (Races 7-11) – 1,6,7,9 / 1,4,9 / 1,2,3,4,6,7 / 8 / 4,6,8,9,10 = $180
Race 1
6 – Potomac – let’s make it simple and start the day with a single in the early pick-5. This horse is versatile, loves the Belmont surface and draws outside in a small field. Should be able to stalk the early speed and pounce on the turn. 6-5-3
Race 2
2 – Better Tapit – Steve Asmussen is sending this one out for debut at 1 ¼ on the grass, so we can assume he feels strongly about his chances right? He connects with 18% of his turf runners and a modest 12% when the debut is greater than one mile, but Santana rides (22% J/T combo) and the price will be right. 2-4-8
Race 3
4 – Outshine – drops a bit in class after a dreadful Wood performance, and will certainly appreciate not seeing Tacitus in the starting gate today. His Tampa performance is the one I’m leaning on, and I think he will get an ideal stalking set-up with two speedsters to his outside. Alwaysmining (6) is coming out of the Preakness and will likely duel early with Majid (5), and though they could scoot clear I love Johnny V’s chances to catch them in the lane. 4-6-5
Race 4
4 – Rushing Fall – perhaps the biggest “free square” on the card, Rushing Fall just looks too tough in here. There isn’t anyone quick enough to run with her early and sustain for the drive home, and I also don’t see a scenario where any of the pretty solid late runners are going to get a set-up. Stone cold single for me, with Daddy is a Legend and Got Stormy closing in to round out the exotics. 4-1-7
Race 5
1 – Come Dancing – as much as I respect Midnight Bisou and her perfect 7 for 7 record at today’s distance, I absolutely love the inside draw for Come Dancing. Her last two performances in graded-stakes company were dominant front-running wins, I think Manny Franco will use her speed advantage in a 5-horse field lacking early zip. Make no mistake, Bisou will be coming for her… but I’ll take the better price and bet that she wires them today. I like Mopotism making one-run at a huge price to pick up the pieces as well. 1-2-5.
Race 6
8 – World of Trouble – I like that this race falls between the pick 5’s, because too much chalk isn’t good for anyone! That said…I’m not picking against World of Trouble here. Six consecutive triple-digit speed figures, a win over this surface, a race with no other early-speed threat and a firm turf course to run on this afternoon spells trouble indeed for the rest of the field. Romps. Look out for Undrafted at a price to put in a nice run from the inside (loves Belmont) and the always-professional Disco Partner will come running late as usual. 8-1-6
Race 7
9 – Ce Ce – finally we get a race that has an abundance of speed, which doesn’t bode well for Oaks winner and legitimate front-runner Serengeti Empress (1). She will have to deal with multiple horses battling for early position, and I think it sets up for Ce Ce perfectly drawing from the outside. Michael McCarthy brings in this Elusive Quality filly for her third career start, and ships in from California to do it. I love the versatility potential, and I think the west-coast speed will rule the day in the one-turn mile. The possible freak in here is Guarana, and it’s VERY noteworthy that Jose Ortiz hops off the Oaks winner to ride a Chad Brown second-timer. Proud Emma looks like a nice candidate to chunk up for third if and when this thing falls apart. 9-7-6
Race 8
1 – Honest Mischief – goes out for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in the third career start looking to take another step up after two ultra-impressive performances to begin the career. They key takeaway from the maiden win at Keenland wasn’t so much the margin of victory, but more about how he did it, drawing away after stalking the early pace. He steps up in class and draws the rail against a tough bunch, but if he can break clean and find his spot I think there’s a level we haven’t seen yet. Landeskog (5) will be the likely rabbit in here (and pay for it), and I like Complexity and Mind Control to round out the trifecta with my top choice. 1-4-9
Race 9
4 – Thunder Snow – this is by far the most compelling race of the day (and honestly one of the best fields of the year on paper), and adding to the intrigue is the always-fun Thunder Snow. Coming off his second-career Dubai World Cup victory, he’ll ship in today flashing enough speed to get close and enough late kick to run by them in the lane. He ran a big race over the Belmont main in the JCGC last September, and even though the cutback to a mile against this bunch is a tough transition, I do think the big sprinters will make this pace HOT and soften it up for my top selection. Mitole stretches out again to try a mile for the first time, and I think he’s running another big one. Firenze Fire is 3 for 3 at Belmont and will likely get the same desired stalk and pounce trip as Thunder Snow. I’m tossing McKinzie from my trifecta, but this is a spread race in the late-pick5 for sure. 4-3-7.
Race 10
8 – Bricks and Mortar – absolutely the one to beat in here and a single if you’re in the market for one. Four straight wins with triple-digit speed figures, the most recent of which came in a beautiful late-running effort at Churchill on Derby day five weeks back. He should get his way again here. I will use Qurbaan (has nice early speed, could get a loose a bit) and Channel Maker (versatile, capable of huge efforts) in the exotics. 8-4-10
Race 11
8 – Intrepid Heart – I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking here, but a lightly-raced 10-1 Tapit colt in a Belmont absolutely lacking star power (and speed figures for that matter) is almost a must-play for me. He won his first two races at the MSW and OC75k levels before trying his luck in the G3 Peter Pan and stumbling badly at the break, finishing a modest third. He comes back today to try the vaunted 1 ½ miles over Big Sandy, and gets to keep Johnny V for the journey. He should be forwardly placed in a field that likely won’t be blazing, and any sort of upward move gives him a big shot in here. We won’t see 10-1, but the price will still be fair and I think he takes the money today. Tacitus (10) is the likely post-time co-favorite and should be sitting on a big one after his five week break, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he romps… I just don’t like the price. Tax (4) was my pick early in the week, and I still like his chances as a front-runner with nice late speed figures, but the workout setback (stepping on a rock?) gives me enough pause to look elsewhere for the win bet. 8-10-4.
2019 Belmont
Week 1 (4/27) – 9: 0-0-3, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 2 (5/4) – 12: 3-2-1, -44.5% ROI ($24 wagered, $13.30 returned)
Week 3 (5/18) – 12: 2-2-4, -50.4% ROI ($24 wagered, $11.90 returned)
Total – 33: 5-4-8, -61.8% ROI ($66 wagered, $25.20 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 235: 56-41-32, -22.7% ($470 wagered, $363.40 returned)
Win Rate = 23.8%
ITM Rate = 54.9%