Race 1
1 – After Prom Party – the first two tries on dirt were average, the second of which was at the spa in the debut race under the care of the Englehart barn. The move to the lawn over in Queens last November proved to be the right decision, as he almost took them wire to wire before getting caught late. He has some nice early zip and the rail spot in a field that might not put too much pressure on him, and the barn connects at 23% off the +180-day break. Let’s get a price home to start the day. 1-10-8
Race 2
10 – Quality Choice – we get two major changes that could be in his favor today: he gets to drop back from allowance company into the claiming ranks after two rough outings, and he goes from dirt to the clearly-preferred turf. His last two tries on the lawn have been victorious, and though he might not be as quick as some of these he keeps the very aggressive Carmouche in the irons and has taken well to the Belmont sod in his lone attempt. A price play for sure, but he could get a setup as the pace will be quick in a two-turn affair. 10-12-11
Race 3
1 – Primacy – MASSIVE favorite and deservedly so off the first two efforts. Broke terribly in the debut and almost got the money anyway, then came back at a mile and ran a big race in defeat. Towers over these on the figures and gets the top trainer with Castellano in the irons. I like the Linda Rice debut runner as well, but not enough at a relatively short price vs. this one. Single the chalk and move on. 1-2-6
Race 4
9 – Go Rudy Go – wheels back for Rudy in on nine days rest and switches to the lawn for a barn that hits with 25% of its runners second off the layoff 45-180 days. Has tons of early zip in a field that’s lacking, so maybe he gets loose and walks them down at a nice price? 9-6-4
Race 5
9 – Fleet Irish – pure pace play here as things should be BLAZING up front in the one-turn affair, and though there are some nice stalkers to his inside that will benefit from a meltdown, I’ll take the much more generous price on the stone cold closer who has five exacta finishes in nine starts at the distance. Not to mention two wins over the Belmont main and a bullet work 5/13. 9-8-7.
Race 6
9 – Pagliacci – consistent runner always gives an honest account, landing in the trifecta in three of five both at the distance and over the Belmont sod. There appears to be some speed to his inside, so adding the extra half-panel and getting something to run at should help this stalking-type immensely in the lane. Rice and Lezcano are both off to ice-cold starts at the meet, but they are a 26% combo for a reason and I like their chances here pouncing late. 9-7-8.
Race 7
10 – Too Sexy – this pick is the opposite of sexy, as the deserved morning line favorite should have the edge over the two Chad Brown first-timers and a couple other sneaky types. Will likely need to send from the outside but is versatile enough to settle and stalk a pace if need-be. Proven over two tries to be better than these, and I can’t pick against. Watch out for the 7-horse getting the major rider-upgrade at a price to hit the board second-time out. 10-7-5
Race 8
7 – Officer Hutchy – Can’t knock this gal hitting the exacta in all four starts for Linda Rice, coming back today after a nice win going seven panels back in February. Faces some stiff competition in a salty allowance group, but she’s been here before and certainly has the tactical speed to make her own luck today. Hope the price ticks up with the two runners to his right taking some money. 7-6-9
Race 9 – The Ogden Phipps– G1, 1 & 1/16th (F&M 4yo & Up)
6 – Golden Award – bottom line I think she’s getting an ideal setup with the outside draw in a six horse field going one-turn, as there are three legitimate pacemakers to her inside and she should get the jump on the two bigger closers in the bunch. She’s the only one with a win at Belmont and has five scores in 10 tries on fast tracks. Works have been sharp and the price should be fair. 6-2-5.
Race 10
6 – Corey Scores – Goes out for Brad Cox for the first time after the switch from Chad Brown last November, and the barn excels with their debut runners hitting at a nice 25% clip. Work-tab has been consistent, and there might be some pace in here to set her up for a stalking trip. Pletcher has a deserved favorite on the inside, but I’ll take Rosario on the better price to close out the Saturday card in New York. 6-2-5.
Have a great Saturday everyone!
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 580: 133-113-94, -17.1% ($1,160 wagered, $962 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.9%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 58.6%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Final Total: 121: 26-23-20, -13.8% ROI ($242 wagered, $208.50 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)