Welcome back to beautiful Belmont Park! We had an OK winter at the Big A, but it sure is nice to move a little further east and start tackling Big Sandy again. We have a very nice 10-race card to kick off the first Saturday of the meet, so let’s jump right in. Good luck today everyone.
Race 1
5 – Sol the Freud – one of two speedsters in here and I’m going with the likely bigger price. He’s had some success at Belmont and normally finds himself involved at the wire (22 for 45 ITM lifetime).
3 – Blue Belt – the other speed could cause a duel up front, but in a short field I like them to clear early and combine for the exacta.
6 – Candid Desire – the likely favorite will stalk the front two and hope the pace collapses, and I can’t knock anyone who likes the potential setup here. Feels like a chance to fade chalk a little bit for me.
Race 2
2 – Sounds Good – Linda Rice connects on 33% of here maiden second-timers, and the debut was encouraging enough to signal an upward move here.
9 – Dove Shoot – could be the lone speed in here and goes for the Nevin barn for the first time today. The last race came off the turf and didn’t go well, but if he runs back to the debut he has a nice chance here.
5 – Everything Pazible – hasn’t had much racing luck yet in the four career tries, two of them being marred by bad breaks. He did run better in the most recent and has two nice works since. Joel Rosario takes the mount as well and should be a nice price.
Race 3
7 – Dr. Shane – super-consistent runner is 21 for 31 ITM lifetime and flashes the versatility to manage any pace scenario in here. He’s 4: 1-1-1 over the track and the Gargan barn connects at 25% on this layoff as well.
8 – Harlan’s Harmony – it’s been up and down for him recently, but the barn excels in the claiming / allowance ranks and at 6-1 I like his chances to find a nice stalking trip from the outside.
9 – Pagliacci – after two route tries (and a win two-back), Bill Mott is calling for the cut-back in the return to NY. All the speed in here appears to be inside, so any of these three should have a shot if the pace quickens.
Race 4
5 – It’s My Catiecat – asserted herself nicely in the last try and could get a similar stalking trip from the outside here. Franco gets the mount and blinkers go on for the first time today.
1 – Cash Offer – has tons of early speed and should use it here to clear from the inside slot. Ran very well in the slop off a long layoff a few weeks back, and the Henning barn does well with 2OFF+180.
4 – Riot – Jose Ortiz gets the mount on the first-timer for the Englehart barn, and the works have been consistent leading in for this $325k City Zip purchase. Leaving in the third spot as I think the competition is salty for a debut.
Race 5
9 – Air On Fire – as much as I want to fade here, the speed figures and the Servis stats are too heavy to put anywhere but the top spot. Look for Lezcano to have him hustling early… and late.
2 – Joyful Heart – the last four races have been dreadful, but he’s won over the Belmont turf and gets Jose Ortiz back. Taking another crack here.
10 – Bettor Bank On It – consistent stalking style always gives him a chance, and he’s hit the board in four of nine career starts. Let’s get him the tri at a price.
Race 6
7 – Hoboe – he loves Belmont (5:2-1-1) and today’s distance (2:1-1-0), and a little give in the ground wouldn’t be the worst thing either. The wins have come when stalking a hot pace, and I think he gets just that here today.
4 – Mutakatif – the first of two Chad Brown runners in this field handled the North American debut well while losing by a head at Gulfstream last month and should be cranked today on or near the lead.
6 – Prognostication – speedster loves the local turf (4:1-3-0) and gets the services of Rosario today. Should be firing from the bell and is a serious threat to wire this field.
Race 7
1 – Sparty Boy – three for six at today’s distance and adds blinkers for the first time for Rudy Rodriguez (17%). Has been plagued by bad breaks in the last two, hoping he can get out clean and use some of that tactical speed to get into the race early.
6 – Planet Trailblazer – will be vying for the lead early and if he runs back to his last two speed figures he could be tough to catch in here. Servis hits at 33% on 31-60 day layoffs, and this one fits the bill for another live sprinter.
1a – Old Upstart – suffers from second-itis at Belmont (11: 1-4-0) but has four wins in seven tries at today’s distance and should grind his way into the mix late for a piece.
** adding #7 Zabione to complete the trifecta behind the entry and the 6.
Race 8
2 – Hizzam – I know the other Chad Brown entry (see below) will take more money, but I’m going to take a swing with his second-time starter (with whom Brown hits at 30%) from the inside post. He got the debut out of the way in a sloppy mile try, and was wide the whole race. Brown moves him to turf and stretches him out further here, and the last two works have been very sharp. Live one.
4 – Value Proposition – the likely favorite and the first-timer for Chad Brown has been working well and should be sharp in here. Have to respect the pedigree, and when Brown debuts on the grass over a mile he wins at a 21% clip. I do think this is a tough field for a debut in this spot, and I’ll take the bigger price on top in the exacta.
5 – Downside Risk – stalked and pounced nicely to finish second in each of his first two starts, and with any pace in here he’ll have the same chance again today. Needs to break better though and the price could be short.
Race 9 – The Elusive Quality ($125k)
1 – Abiding Star – LOOSE LEAD ALERT! Draws the rail and has tons of early zip, will likely have only the 2 battling for the lead early and I think he can wire this field at a price. He has three wins over the Belmont turf and is one for one at seven panels. There are certainly more imposing horses on paper in here, but I love the setup and will take a swing with Jersey Joe.
6 – Big Handsome – five for five ITM on the Belmont lawn and also owns a win at today’s distance in his only try. He’s only missed the trifecta twice in 15 career starts and will use the stalk and pounce style to come running once again. Faster the pace the better for this one I think.
3 – Emmaus – seven furlong specialist (5: 3-1-0) makes his first North American start today for Conor Murphy and adds Jose Ortiz for good measure. Hasn’t been seen since October but the layoff stats are good and I have to respect his love for the distance today.
Race 10
8 – Change of Venue – could be the only closing type in a field full of speed, so I’ll use on top at a nice price to run them down late. Rob Atras connects at an absurd 41% when he gets a runner for the first time.
10 – Curlin Creek – will likely be close to the lead and try to stalk and pounce late. Linda Rice does well with 2-Off runners and the horse is 6 for 8 ITM for his career. Consistency is nice to see in races like this.
5 – Bourbon Did It – quite simply, a Jason Servis sprinter ridden by Manny Franco is a must-use in the last race of the day, because if you don’t and the late pick 5 connects with him on top… you’ll need all the bourbon in the world.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections
- Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.2% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
- Win Rate = 25.2%
- ITM Rate = 53.8%