Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Monday, October 14, 2019, by Chris Felts

We have some monday racing action at Belmont Park, 9 races with the feature being the Grade 2 Knickerbocker Stakes. Best of luck if you’re playing along and follow me on twitter @cjfelts87. 

Through 17 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 142-34-31-28 (22% win, 65% ITM) 

Race 1 MCL 25k 3up state bred, 6.5 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 1,5 B: 3,6

Top pick- #1 Champagne Chills

  • He crossed the wire first in his race 2 back before being DQ’ed and Irad was aboard who is on him again today. Fits the pace profile and Patrick Reynolds is 24% with a $3.48 ROI first off the claim.

Second choice- #5 Freudian Sip

  • ML favorite who has ran 2 respectable races since the trainer switch to Jorge Abreu. He’s a contender but I like Champagne Chills more in this spot.

Underneath- #3 Apex Predator, #6 Talespin

Race 2

Multi Race- A: 3,6 B: 5,11

Top pick- #3 First Appeal

  • Will appreciate a bit of class relief dropping down from the n2x optional allowance level. She has won 3 times over this Belmont turf course, once being at this distance and Castellano stays aboard today.

Second choice- #6 Something Joyful

  • Ran a strong last out finishing third after getting caught in traffic down the stretch. Junior stays on and 5-1 is a nice price on her.

Underneath- #5 Alabama Bound, #11 Hollywood Cat

Race 3 Alw 66k n1x state bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 /16 miles

Multi Race- A: 1,5 B: 2

Top pick- #1 Smiles From Sadie

  • Linda Rice is taking a chance putting her in an n1x level race after being claimed, she’s not without her flaws but this is a short enough field for her to find the winner’s circle at 7-5 ML. 

Second choice- #5 Summer Fantasy

  • 12-1 longshot who broke her maiden in the mcl ranks last out, normally I’d be against her but none of the horses here have run to today’s par which leaves the potential for some chaos this race.

Underneath- #2 Lady Macho

Race 4 Clm 16k fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 2,4 B: 5

Top pick- #2 Stars Wilburn

  • Another 12-1 longshot in a race similar to race 3 where none of the horses have really run to today’s par which means chaos. Taking a big drop in class with Joey Martinez, if you recall he won on a 30-1 shot at Saratoga doing the same thing. Hoping for a pace meltdown and her running late enough to pick up the pieces.

Second choice- #4 Princess Victoria

  • Opens the 3-1 second choice with Luis Saez, 2 wins at this distance so she’s versatile enough to be in contention late.

Underneath- #5 Blissful Breeze

Race 5 MCL 50k 2yo fillies, 1 1/16 miles turf

Multi Race- A: 7,10 B: 3,5

Top pick- #10 Days of Spring

  • Not so great group of maiden claimers but he hopes to get a good trip drawing from the outside, not much pace to run into but gets Saez and a nice second last time at this level.

Second choice- #7 I am Aine

  • Gets Manny Franco and adds blinkers which may put her on the front end, not too much closing speed and she didn’t like the slop last time but 2nd out I hope to see some improvement.

Underneath- #3 Bellsinthewood, #5 Delete the Tweet, #8 Leeway

Race 6 MSW 75k fillies and mares 3up, 7 furlongs turf

Multi Race- A: 1,3  B: 4,5

Top pick- #3 Smack

  • Ran close to par last out and Joel Rosario stays on who has been getting hot lately. 2 thirds over the Belmont turf course against similar competition and hopes to find the winner’s circle today.

Second choice- #1 Bye Bye Nicky

  • Has the speed to be competitive and ran a strong race last time. Gets Jose Ortiz and 8-1 ML is a nice price on her.

Underneath- #4 So Gracious, #5 Solo Artist

Race 7 Alw 77k n1x 3up, 1 1/16 miles

Multi Race- A: 5 B: 4

Top pick- #5 Mubarmaj

  • Trying to find a reason to play against at 3-5 ML but it’s a short 5 horse field and on paper he’s simply faster than the others. Take the free money and move on.

Second choice- #4 Dark Storm

  • If you are bold enough to play against what looks like a solid lock then here you go. 2 straight wins and comes into this race in good form, Jersey Joe gets the mount again today.

Underneath- n/a

Race 8 Grade 2 Knickerbocker Stakes 3up, 1 ⅛ miles turf

Multi Race- A: 2,7  B: 5,6

Top pick- #7 Catholic Boy

  • I love me some Catholic Boy. Castellano knows this horse and he’s versatile enough to track the pace and make his move when it matters. Not sure I would single him but like him enough to make him my top pick.

Second choice- #2 Glorious Empire

  • Has speed drawing from the inside and has the back class to compete today. Only his 2nd race of the year but Prado won a grade 2 with him last year. 

Underneath- #1 Dr. Edgar, #5 Olympico, #6 Cullum Road

Race 9 Clm 16k N2L 3up, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 1,3  B: 2

Top pick- #3 Our Honor

  • Won his last race with Hector Diaz who stays on today and stays at the same 6 furlong distance too. In good form and I expect to see him back in the winner’s circle today.

Second choice- #1 Talent Scout

  • I don’t typically like Kendrick Carmouche on short priced sprinters but he has had a couple good tries at this level since the claim. Wouldn’t overlook but don’t take too short of a price.

Underneath- #2 Johnny Wishbone

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