Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Monday, May 27, 2019, by Chris Felts

Today’s Memorial Day Belmont Card features several different state bred stakes events, all of which are really intriguing and great betting races. Good early pick 5 sequence but the late pick 5 looks pretty chalky. Best of luck if you’re playing along and happy Memorial Day!

Early pick 5: 3,4,9,10/1,6,7/3,8,9,10/6,7/1 $48 for 50 cents

Best bet: Race 5- #1 Fifty Five

Race 1 Alw 66k nw1x state bred 3up, 6 furlongs turf

10-4-9-3

#10 Nueva York will be trying turf for the first time out of an above average turf sire in A.P. Indy, trainer David Cannizzo has a positive ROI in both 1st on the grass and dirt to turf. I like #4 Market Bubble to finish ITM, in a race that has a lot of speed he is a presser style horse that should get a nice trip, my only concern is the layoff but trainer Jorge Daunte spouts good numbers coming off layoffs. #9 Tizgame is in my opinion the best of the three early speed horses and should snag a piece here.

Race 2 Alw 66k nw1x state bred Fillies and Mares 3up, 6.5 furlongs

7-6-1-3

#7 Kid is Frosty drops down from one of the New York Stallion Series stakes races, has finished ITM in all 6 of his races, gets Jose Lezcano in the irons. #6 Orchid Party has been running well against this company, some good recent workouts and gets Manny Franco; his two races with Manny he finished second and third at this level. #1 More Mischief will have his work cut out for him off the layoff, but he did finish a well deserved second in a stakes race at Belmont back in September.

Race 3 Alw 66k nw1x state bred 3up, 6 furlongs turf

3-8-9-10

#3 Elektronic is a lightly raced colt, broke his maiden as the favorite last time out, Linda Rice has good numbers with last out winners and you have to think she wouldn’t be running him here if she didn’t think he had a chance. #8 Sparky comes in off the layoff as a first time gelding, he does have some well placed thirds at this level. #9 Bydawnsearlylight is the lone speed horse here but I just can’t trust him enough to wire this field, he’s only been able to do so once in his 5 races and that was done in the slop.

Race 4 Bouwerie Stakes 125k state bred Fillies 3 years old, 7 furlongs

7-6-1-2

#7 Espresso Shot won the Busher stakes at Aqueduct back in April, trainer Jorge Abreu is 38% with beaten favorites, Jose Ortiz up. #6 Pat’s No Fool defeated horses in this field in the Maddie May stakes at Aqueduct in March, like him to get up and finish ITM. #1 Wadadli Princess is a stalker type horse, in a race that is similar to Race 1 with a lot of early speed I like him to finish strong late.

Race 5 Mount Vernon Stakes 125k state bred Fillies and Mares 3up, 1 mile turf

1-8

#1 Fifty Five should be the post time favorite and I think she’s a lock to win. She’s won her last three for Chad Brown and although she won’t offer much value, it’s hard to see her getting beat. I like #8 Wegetsdamunnys to close late and grab a piece. You should consider some early speed horses like the 5 or 7 in your exotics, but I think this an easy single and move on in your verticals.

Race 6 pass

Race 7 Critical Eye Stakes 200k state bred Fillies and Mares 3up, 1 mile

4-7-3

#4 Kathryn the Wise could get loose on the lead and wire this field, she has posted some good works and should grab the lead early in this spot. Potential Chad Brown double in the making. I like #7 Bonita Bianca to finish underneath, she’s 11/17 ITM and 4/4 ITM at Belmont, no question that she is able to compete with this crowd. #3 Still There will appreciate a bit of class relief from some tougher graded stakes, will be in the mix late with Corey Lanerie aboard.

Race 8 Kingston Stakes 125k state bred 3up, 1 mile turf

2-3-5-4

#2 Therapist is coming off a stakes win back on the 27th of April in a 7F turf sprint at Belmont, has the ability to come from right off the pace to grab the lead when asked. Eric Cancel up. #3 Offering Plan opens the 6-5 ML favorite, too short of a price for me but he is a must use as a saver for your exotics. #5 Appealing Briefs is a nice price horse that could grab a piece here, 11/16 ITM on the turf and in 3 tries at the distance has finished third twice.

Race 9 Mike Lee Stakes 125k state bred 3 year olds, 7 furlongs

6-1-10

This race is probably the most intriguing betting race of the day, and I’m gonna take a shot with #6 Blindwillie McTell. This is the second off the layoff for this 3 year old gelding who has shown he can run with this type of company. Has a ton of early speed and gets Jose Ortiz in the irons. #1 Just Right is ⅝ ITM lifetime, 1st off the layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher and won his last race drawing away. #10 Stone Breaker is 4/4 ITM lifetime for Gary Gullo, winner of his last three.

Race 10 Commentator Stakes 200k state bred 3up, 1 mile

7-5-4-2

#7 Pat on the Back has proven that he can run with this type of company, was never really a threat in the Cigar Mile then won a stakes first off the layoff, now second off for Jeremiah Englehart and switches back to a route. #5 Giant Expectations faces New York breds after running against some tough company at Oaklawn, he should enjoy the class relief and has enough speed to be in contention late. #4 Mr. Buff will go right out to the lead and set the early pace, don’t think he’ll be able to wire the field but should at least hang on for a piece.

Race 11 pass

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