Today’s Belmont card has 10 competitive races with the feature being a blacktype turf sprint for three year olds. We figure to be fast and firm, and first post is at 1:15. There’s certainly some value to be found in this card and as always be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87. Good luck if you’re playing along!
Daily Gallop stats- Total: 267-71-46-62 (27% win, 67% ITM)
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 53k state bred 2 year olds, 5 furlongs
Selections: 10-8-7
Top Pick: This is a field of 10 first time starters so you may has well be throwing darts but I will side with #10 Effinity. He’s a son of Effinex coming off a sharp workout in company with #7 Competitive Hero in 47 and 1 breezing from the gate, both being trained by Brad Cox. 60k purchase from last year’s August Saratoga sale (average Effinex colt went for 35k) and Luis Saez gets the mount breaking from the outside; 3-1 ML.
Next up: #8 Quick Nick is a colt by Central Banker that is debuting for a barn that has positive numbers with debut runners and has been training well coming into today. 47k purchase from the August Saratoga sale (average Central Banker colt went for 43k) and Joel Rosario rides.
Race 2 Maiden Special Weight 64k fillies and mares 3up, 1 ¼ miles turf
Selections: 4-2-8-3
Top Pick: #4 Coilean Brawn is competitive here based on her past races and has a second place finish at this distance at Belmont and that was behind a next out winner; note the third place finisher also won next time out. She’s capable of handling the distance and appears to be fit on paper coming off a layoff. The Clemente barn has a positive ROI with extended layoffs as well: $2.31 in 65 starts winning 20% of those races.
Next up: The other obvious contender who fits well here is #2 All Others Follow. Chad Brown does have a positive ROI with second time starters and if she can improve with the added distance she is a threat. Tampa Invader is the 2-1 ML favorite.
Race 3 Claiming 14k N3L 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 7-9-1A-3
Top Pick: Not a great bunch of horses in this conditional claimer and based on process of elimination you’re left with #7 Other Things Equal. 9-5 ML favorite will probably be closer to even money come post time so not much value but he is dropping in class coming off a layoff cutting back in distance and on paper it is difficult to make an argument for anyone else to beat him. Single and move on.
Next up: The next choice for me would probably the second ML choice (which shows the value in this field) and that is #9 Bears Mafia. He has speed and can be dangerous if he is able to cycle back to his past form. 3-1 second choice in the wagering.
Race 4 Claiming 32k 3up, 1 1/16 miles
Selections: 1-6-7-4
Top Pick: #1 Shadow Rider has the back class to make him competitive today and may offer some nice value at 6-1 ML. Winner over the Belmont surface and winner at this distance, he might be there at a price dropping in class off the layoff.
Next up: #6 Hoffenheim will probably take some money based on his prior class of races. I’m suspicious of the quick drop to this level after running against stakes company not too long ago but he does fit quite well here on beyers and could be a nice alternative if you’re looking to play against the 7-5 ML favorite in #3 Leitone.
Race 5 Maiden Claiming 40k fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 6-4-7
Top Pick: #6 Morality Clause is competitive here based on her recent form and keeps her regular jock in Manny Franco. Drops into a nice spot off the layoff for Raymond Handal and the cutback in distance will help too. 8-1 ML.
Next up: #4 Yellen invades from Turfway Park after running decent enough on the synthetic there for Wesley Ward, gets Jose aboard and will also benefit from a drop in class off the layoff.
Race 6 Claiming 25k fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 2-6-5
Top Pick: #2 Mo Flash seems like the most logical choice on paper, Lezcano keeps the mount coming off the layoff and she stays at the same level, multiple winner at the distance and 7-2 ML seems like a fair price.
Next up: #6 Miss Jak would be the next logical contender based on her past form, she’s also coming in off a layoff having not raced since February but this is not a super competitive spot to run in today which will help her. Manny Franco aboard.
Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred F&M 3up, 7 furlongs turf
Selections: 11-6-9-8
Top Pick: Really tough turf sprint here and I landed on #11 A Little Faith. Lightly raced 4 year old filly makes her 2020 debut in a competitive field but she has the ability to fire off a layoff and likes the Belmont turf and distance. Hoping she gets a good ride from Johnny V breaking from the outside.
Next up: #6 Awillaway is a longshot at 30-1 ML as she makes her turf debut but she has speed and I think that translates well with a surface switch plus there is some turf pedigree to be found.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 9-2-8-3
Top Pick: #9 The Caretaker makes a lot of sense from a pace standpoint as he stays at this level first off the claim for Tom Morley. Has a good late kick which he will hopefully use to his benefit with a lot of early speed from the inside and has been competitive at this level.
Next up: #2 Leaky Cup is a speedy four year old gelding who looks to be the fastest of the early speed horses on paper and could stay on the lead late enough to grab a piece.
Race 9 Sir Cat Stakes 80k (Blacktype) 3 year olds, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 4-7-2-8
Top Pick: #4 Guildsman is a british import that showed talent overseas in his juvenile season and has run well to begin his 3 year old campaign in the states. Finished third in both his races despite traffic trouble and with a clean trip here could win this race as the 7-2 ML second choice.
Next Up: #7 Chimney Rock is the 2-1 ML favorite in this feature race of the day. In his 2 year old campaign he was second in the Breeders Cup juvenile turf sprint and in his 3 year old debut against allowance company at Churchill showed he is still improving and developing with a nice win. Now finds a nice blacktype turf sprint to run in and is the horse to beat, especially if he improves.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred F&M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 11-10-13-12
Top Pick: #11 Roziere seems to have found her preferred distance after a good race at this level and distance last time out. Has been training well coming off the layoff for her 4 year old debut and Danny Gargan has a positive ROI with runners coming off of layoffs. Carmouche keeps the mount drawing from the outside.
Next up: #10 Topaz Bride will benefit from the drop in class coming in off a layoff for Michael Maker and Jose Ortiz. Maker hits at a 31% clip making the msw to mcl switch and will be dangerous if he can improve. 5-2 ML favorite. #13 Herwaze is also worth a look if he can draw in as an AE.