Follow @PicksByDynasty for updates due to scratches/changes.
Top Pick Results Belmont:9-3-5-0
2019 Belmont $2 win bet: -$3.70
2019 Belmont $2 win/place bet: + $10.50
Race 1: 5,2,1
Mo Moxie is stretching out today which isn’t exactly ideal with her pedigree, but all of her career races make him too tough to go against here. She has finished 2nd or 3rd in her last 4 starts and should get a pace to stalk today.
We Are Family is one of those horses who seems destined to be a lifetime maiden. She is one paced but has pedigree to go longer. In my opinion a very good horse to use underneath in exotics.
Miss You Blues showed early speed in her debut and with Kendrick in the Irons I suspect she will go right to the front again today. Not sure if she will be able to hold on for a piece, but at morning line 10-1 seems to be worth a shot if you don’t like the favorite.
Race 2: 2,12,8 *Off Turf – 14,13
I am taking a shot here with Forever Daisy who is jumping back on the turf for Rudy. She ran on the turf last year and her turf form makes her competitive here. Also with not a lot of pace she could go out early from the rail and be a threat to wire.
Fairy Link is coming off a 5 month layoff to make her 4 year old debut and is taking a big class drop today. She has a win at this distance in her career and with not a lot of pace in here should be right on the pace early.
Sundrenched is coming off a win in a maiden claimer last time out and is now cutting back which I am not a big fan of on the turf. I am not sure she will get the pace in here to come from behind like she has done in the past, but she did win close to a slow pace in her last race so is one that I would not throw out of your early Pick 4 and 5 tickets.
If this race comes off the turf Solitary Gem and Needs No Ice are the only 2 horses in my opinion that should be used on the main track.
Race 3: 1,3,4
Cousin Pete is dropping from a Maiden Special to a Maiden Claimer for Pletcher who is an unreal 42% with this drop. Most likely will be the favorite, but a good one as Pletcher knows how to get these horses ready off the bench.
Bronxville was wide in his last start and his race before that he ran into Last Judgement who runs in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He is a first time gelding as well and I would not be shocked if he attempted to take this group gate to wire.
Mandatory Payout was my top pick last time out and finished a distant 3rd. He is stretching back out today and get Junior back in the irons which is a good sign. Will need a pace collapse to win I think, but should be able to at least round out the trifecta.
Race 4: 11 *Off Turf – 16
Not the biggest fan of this race so I am playing the drop down angle with Rudy. Chillenwithfriends is going out on the turf for the first time which Rudy has not had much success with, but he is dropping in class to a maiden claiming which Rudy is 30% with and this is her 2nd time out after a long layoff which Rudy is 35% with. I doubt we see 7-2 but worth a shot.
If this race comes off the turf She’s Not Bluffing is a single, especially with Kendrick in the irons. She will stalk a pace from the outside and take over as they turn for home.
Race 5: 1,4,8
Dr. Lloyd hit the gate last time out and never had a fair shot. Today he draws the rail and if he gets out clean will be tough to catch up front.
Shock Therapy is cutting back today in distance and should get a solid pace to sit behind. This isn’t a super tough field and at 4-1 I think is worth using in Pick 4’s and 5’s.
Jack Bo was my top pick back on April 11th and finished 3rd. I like the outside post for him and has tactical speed to be dangerous late. I am not a huge fan of the jockey change though to Silvera from Kendrick.
Race 6: 6,7,8
Identity Politics ran in the G1 Carter last time out and well overmatched, but today is dropping back down and if he runs back to his form on March 3rd will be very tough here. Probably will be the favorite but is a must use. Achilles Warrior goes out for Mark Hennig and had an impressive 3 year old debut as he just missed against olders first time off the bench. If he repeats that effort he will be tough again here today and should stay around 3-1 if there are not any scratches.
American Power runs consistent just usually not good enough to win, but for exotic wagers is a must use. Has finished in the top 3 in 11 of 14 career starts and the 3 times he missed the money he rounded out the superfecta.
Race 7: 1,10,9
Enthusiastic Gal ran her last 3 races of 2018 at this 6f distance and ran very well against similar. I love the rail draw today and should get a ground saving trip. Also gets Davis back in the irons who was on her last time where she finished 2nd by a head.
Forgotten Hero ran well in her turf debut and is getting Lasix for the first time today. Not a huge fan of Luzzi in the irons, but these seems to be the type of races he wins on a long shot so I am including her in my exotics.
Jimi Bags has been close in her last 2 efforts but just can’t find a way to win. Today’s field is fairly soft and if Enthusiastic Gal doesn’t fire off the bench Jimi Bags will be the likely winner.
Race 8: 2,6,5
Marconi won the Skip Away last time out at Gulfsteam against a similar field and today is stretching out again which I love with his pedigree. He has tactical speed which makes him very dangerous in here and Pletcher horses going over 1 mile in these ungraded stake races always seem to run big.
Rocketry did not look like the same Rocketry that won the Marathon on Breeders Cup day in the Skip Away. He did not fire for the first time in a long time and this is the time to bet against him. He could bounce back and if he does he will win as he is the best overall horse in this field, but if his time is up he is a favorite you should be playing against.
Roaming Union always seems to be a fair price and always seems to run his race. He has a win and a 3rd so far in 2019 and looks to be the controlling pace in here.
Race 9:
If there is a race to skip on today’s card it is race 9. This is a very weak maiden claimer on the turf where taking a horse at lower then 3-1 here seems suspect. I would use a handful here to end late multi tickets, but I would not play this race straight up.