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Top Pick Results Belmont:22-7-9-0
2019 Belmont Overall: -$4.70
2019 Belmont $2 win/place bet: + $19.90
Race 1: 2,5,6
Teachable Moment is running as a gelding for the first time and based off his recent workouts should make all the difference. He is trained by Chad Brown and gets Kendrick in the irons today who will take advantage of his tactical speed. He is also dropping down in class for his debut.
What’s to Blame ran well late in his debut and now is dropping in here for a tag. While it isn’t a great sign that they are throwing him in for a tag after only 1 career race, it did take him until he was 4 to make the starting gate. If he runs late again I’ll use him in exotic wagers.
Carom is another 1st time running as a gelding horse and this one has done his best running on the turf. If you only look at his turf races he fits in here. Gutierrez has been struggling since moving to Belmont but would not be surprised if this one got him back in the winners circle.
Race 2: 6,4,3
Running Violence was my top selection back on March 15th where he did no running at all. Today he is adding blinkers and with another small field I am hoping Lezcano can give him a better trip then he did that day. If he runs back to his February effort he will be tough in here.
Lone Pioneer was my 2nd choice last Friday as he nosed out my top pick at the wire. I am placing him 2nd again today but would not toss this one out of exotics or multi’s, especially with his late kick.
Stink Man was wide last time out and today with the rail should save some ground. He is also taking another drop-in class today for Linda Rice. Linda is also 20% with running horses back under 7 days rest.
Race 3: 2,3,10
Annie Rocks is going out first off the claim for Linda Rice and is getting back to the turf where she has won in the past. She is also getting a jockey upgrade to Lezcano who has ridden her before on the turf against much tougher.
Hoponthebusgus is also going back to the turf today and is dropping in class. Rudy is not the best with turf starters and Reyes in the irons does not inspire much confidence here, but with her stalking style I think she is dangerous in here.
Awesome Quick has finished in the money in 9 of 20 career turf starts and has 3 wins in 11 starts at this distance. If she breaks well she will be the control pace with Kendrick in the irons.
Race 4: 3,9,2
Awesome Ammo is stretching out after breaking his maiden first time out. He gets Junior back in the irons which I like and based on the pedigree should apricate the added distance today.
Elenzee is making his 5 year old debut today for Michael maker and is getting back to the turf. He gets Kendrick riding, so I am hoping he gets back to his early speed way. If he runs back to his last race at Belmont which was at this distance, he will be tough to catch here.
Nutzforboltz is also making his 5 year old debut today and trainer Chris Englehart is 27% with horses coming off 180+ layoffs. He has not won with a turf starter in over a year however, but he has finished in the money in 6 of 10 Belmont starts so using this one underneath.
Race 5: 3,4,6
Its All Relevant goes out for the first time for Linda Rice today but has won 6 of his last 6 races including 4 of them at this 1-mile distance. He is not lone speed today but has shown the ability to be on a contested pace and win in the past. He also keeps Davis in the irons who has been on for his last 7 races.
Roaming Union runs the same race every race, sometimes it is good enough to win, sometimes not. He finished 3rd against similar last time out and I expect him to finish in the money again today. I put him second because I think he passes whoever attempts to run with Its All Relevant in the stretch.
Candygram goes out for Jerkens today and has run well in all 3 2019 starts including a win last time out in the slop. He has been working well and with the outside post should get a clean trip. His 2 career wins he went gate to wire which I do not see happening today, but does have 3 other in the money finishes where he sat behind the speed which is where I think he is positioned today.
Race 6: 6,3,5
Banana Thief is a horse who fires every time but does not always win. He is making his 7 year old debut today and has run at Belmont in the past. I think there is enough speed in here that Banana Thief is coming late.
Psychic Energy has won 4 races in his career at this distance and has been running well in 2019. He did win going gate to wire last time out but has typically been an off the pace style horse. I would expect him to sit off the pace today and against this field 1 big move turning for home should be enough to finish in the top 3.
Fast Getaway looks to be the speed in here. He has never done gate to wire before, but has been right on a fast pace and won. He is lightly raced compared to others in this field, but has never missed the money in 2 starts at Belmont and has never missed the money in 3 starts at this distance.
Race 7: 4,2,3
Turco Bravo (Chi) has finished in the money in his past 9 races including 4 wins. He also has finished in the money in 8 of 9 career starts at this distance including last time out against similar company. There is speed in here so he should sit a good stalking trip.
Curlin Road has not won since winning a G3 back in July of 2017, but he has been knocking at the door in all 3 starts in 2019. He comes from the back so will need the pace to collapse to win, but should be coming late to get a piece at least.
Eagle Pass has finished in the money in all 4 starts in 2019 and does his best running in my opinion from right on the pace. With Kendrick in the Irons I am expecting him to be the pace setter today, but unsure if he can go gate to wire against this group. Won’t shock me if he does, but as the 9-5 morning line favorite I will try and beat him on top and only use him on multi wagers.
Race 8: 7,1,5
I am not a fan of cut backs on the turf which left me with only a few options in here and I landed on the morning line favorite Front Run the Fed for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. He broke his maiden last time out at 6f and was running strong late so the stretch out to 7f should be no issue. I also like the tactical speed he has and the outside post. He also gets Lezcano in the irons so should be close to the pace early.
Jerome Avenue was almost my top pick in here and I will put a win bet on him if he stays around the 8-1 morning line odds. He is coming out of a strong race at Tampa won by Digital Age who was just a winner on the Kentucky Derby undercard in the G2 American Turf. He is cutting back from 1 mile to 7f which I know is not a huge difference, but I prefer horses stretching out on the turf rather than cutting back. Will be on all my tickets though despite being my second choice in here.
Clench is going from dirt to turf for Jason Servis who is excellent at this move, especially at this level. He has shown early speed on dirt and if he takes to the turf, we could see a big front-end effort out of him today with his pedigree. I am not a fan of Cancel riding so keeping this one as an underneath horse and if Cancel beats me he beats me.
Race 9: 5,12,1
Maiden claiming turf spirts are one of my least favorite races, but to end the day I am taking a shot with a few medium prices as I am not a fan of the top 2 morning line betting choices at all. Dazante found his best stride late in his turf debut last time out and gets Junior back in the irons today which I am taking as a good sign. This field is not that strong so expecting him to be there late again.
Plebe is making his 3 year old debut today and is a gelding now but is dropping in class after running against tougher in his 2 career races in which he took money even though he finished 3rd in both efforts. If he improves off his 2-year-old form 6-1 would be a steal on him.
Capt. Courageous is a first time starter but Abreu has had sneaky good success with first timers as of late with a 20% win rate and a $3.36 ROI. He has Kendrick on him today and if he breaks well, I am expecting Kendrick to try and set the pace with this one. His works are decent enough that at 10-1 I will take a shot to end multi’s with him.