Back at it for another edition of Belmont Fridays, it looks like there is going to be scattered thunderstorms throughout the day so I’m giving out both picks for on and off the turf in those races (2, 5, 7, 9, 10). Best of luck if you’re playing along and be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 286-76-50-65 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Belmont Spring Meet ROI: $1.57 ($58 bet, $45.60 returned)
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 64k 2 year olds, 5.5 furlongs
Selections: 2-1-6
Top Pick: #2 Garoppolo is making his second start here after debuting at Belmont last month. Now has some experience and can improve for trainer Kelly Breen who is hitting at a 24% rate with second time starters. If you go back and watch the replay he caught a lot of kickback from the frontrunners on a sealed track on his debut so expect an improvement over a fast track. Strong works coming into this race including a 5 furlong bullet as Luis Saez gets the call today.
Next up: #1 Indoctrinate is another second time starter coming out of the same race as Garoppolo and actually finished ahead of him in third. Alvarado stays aboard and he can improve off his debut as he draws the rail.
Race 2 Claiming 25k F&M 3up, 1 mile turf
Selections: 1-11-10-5
Top Pick: This is a stinker of a claiming race and #1 Take Charge Tina seems like the most logical choice at 6-5 ML. Ships up from Gulfstream off a layoff and drops down from the n1x allowance level down there, look for her to be close to the lead and have enough saved to make a closing move down the stretch. Maybe we see a Luis Saez early double? #11 Beach Dreaming might offer some value at 5-1 ML. Another Gulfstream shipper is taking a step up in class for a new trainer who has a 20% win rate with his first time runners and the jump in class doesn’t bother me too much since it is a weak field for this level.
OFF TRACK: #3 Daria’s Angel is even money should this race come off and has the speed to run to her ML. Alvarado keeps the mount after winning on her last out. #4 Solitary Gem is another MTO that has good dirt form and should be considered. 3-4-1A-6
Race 3 Claiming 14k N3L F&M 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 2-6-3-1
Top Pick: #2 Kinky Sox is stepping up to the N3L after beating foes at the N2L level last out with a solid race first off the bench. Faces similar here and will be a threat if he can replicate that prior effort. I like to see Cancel keeping the mount today.
Next up: #6 Hetty G. invades from Churchill and will step up to face N3L runners for the first time for Wesley Ward. Looks to be in good form and gets a jock upgrade to Jose Ortiz today. Should be pressing the pace throughout.
Race 4 Starter Allowance 50k F&M 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 7-4-5-10
Top Pick: #7 Keota opens as the 1-2 ML favorite and it is hard to make a case against her in this spot. Gulfstream shipper comes off a layoff making her first start off the claim for Chad Brown who drops her down from stakes company to her eligible condition. Her recent figures trump the rest of the field and if she can run to her back class she will be very tough to beat. Winner over the Belmont turf and at this distance. If you’re looking to play against #4 Jen’s Battle looks like an overlay at 10-1 ML. In good form and comes into this race second off the layoff after beating open 40k claimers last month going 7 furlongs on the grass. Joel Rosario keeps the mount and has a solid work coming into today’s race. Even still, Keota seems like a tough beat and a single in this leg.
OFF TRACK: This race becomes very confusing off the turf but #5 Gloriously has decent dirt form and might be there at a price at least on the ML. #1 Dancingwithdaffodls is the only one in this bunch with a win over a wet track and can improve second off the layoff. 5-1-4-8
Race 5 Claiming 32k 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 6-5-7-3
Top Pick: #6 Spokane Eagle invades from Churchill first off the claim for Michael Pino who is having this colt step up in class a bit with leading rider Irad Ortiz getting the mount. This race is loaded with speed and he will have to be careful not to get caught up in a speed duel but with a good trip I think he will be there at a nice 9-2 ML.
Next up: #5 Eye Luv Lulu must be respected based on her back class now first off the claim for Rob Atras from the Jason Servis barn but I am hesitant to put him on top as the ML favorite making a sudden drop from stakes company.
Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming 80k n1x 3yo fillies, 1 1/16 miles
Selections: 6-7-4
Top Pick: I’m looking to beat the favorite here with #6 Tonal Vision at 8-1 ML. Last race was at the same distance against similar in the slop and she can improve second off the layoff with the added experience of going this long. Mark Casse is 20% with a positive ROI with runners second off the layoff.
Next up: #7 Spice is Nice looks to be the horse to beat at 4-5 ML as she drops down from stakes company to her eligible condition. Has speed and can will be tough if she can run to her back class in this spot.
Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 53k state bred F&M 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 11-7-9
Top Pick: #11 Fractorzation looks good at a nice 6-1 ML drawing the outside, can improve over the grass off of her 2020 debut and Jose keeps the mount today. From a speed figure standpoint #7 Magnolia’s Lady should improve off her debut for Linda Rice after finishing behind Fractorzation last time out.
OFF TRACK: The MTO #13 Vivazano makes the most sense should this race move to the dirt, his debut on the main track last month was good and would certainly be a threat here on a muddy track and with scratches. #12 Snicket should also be looked at given his debut on the main track at Gulfstream. 13-12-9
Race 8 Allowance 56k n1x state bred 3up, 1 mile
Selections: 5-2/2B-3
Top Pick: #5 Bourbon Bay drops into his eligible condition after running well against stakes company and can improve in this spot second off the layoff. Lezcano keeps the mount for Mark Hennig.
Next up: The #2/2B entry looks sharp with #2 Yankee Division who has speed and can compete at the distance, and with #2B Big Thicket who is stepping up in class but keeps Irad aboard and is in good form for Rudy Rodriguez.
Race 9 The License Fee Stakes 80k listed F&M 4up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 8-3-6-7
Top Pick: #8 Dalika ships from Churchill for trainer Albert Stall who is making his first start at this Belmont meet so he has this filly well spotted for this race, won her last race at 5.5 furlongs on the grass and the second place finisher out of that race went on to win a blacktype turf sprint here at Belmont last month. Rosario stays aboard and she should benefit from drawing the outside post too.
Next up: #3 Getmotherarose is a nice value play at 6-1 ML, grade 3 winner at a mile and has won over the Belmont turf and the distance and can be dangerous if she can run to her back class. Should this race come off the turf, my top off track would be #6 Escapade, who ran a strong off track race against stakes company 2 races back.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 9-13-14-15
Top Pick: #9 Adios Amigos is my top pick for both on and off the turf here. On the turf he ran strong races against maiden special company and finds a nice spot to run in here. Off the turf his last race he ran second over fast dirt after a slow break and Castellano keeps the mount today. Any of the three also eligibles who might draw in here should be looked at as well given their ability to run well over dirt or turf.