Arkansas Derby day at Oaklawn Park!! It’s the first Saturday of May and there is a big void in the racing world today. Let’s enjoy Oaklawn, drink some beer, have a few mint juleps and enjoy the day! Deep fields await the bettors; and as always, let’s box ‘em and bet ‘em!
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Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 2-3-12
Let’s start the opener, on the card, with #3, Full of Grace; she exits some decent races. Takes the class hike and Talamo stays in the saddle; is tactical and should sit just off the pace. Should fire his best race in the third race of her form cycle. Has trained very well since her last out. Miss Imperial, #3, is first off of the claim for a trainer that plays the claiming game very well, albeit, at a small sampling. Note, the top two choices scratched out of races Friday to run here. Final selection, #12, will come flying late from the outside perch.
Race 2) 6-1-3
Maiden Special Weight for three-year-old fillies lined up in the second tilt of the day. A bit of a head scratcher as there isn’t a lot to draw from. The Asmussen filly shows some decent works and I expect her to be ready at first asking. Phoenix Thoroughbreds paid almost 32 times for her than the stud fee. Let’s dive to the rail for the second choice. D’Amato sends out this second start filly and switches surfaces as well. Ran decent in her debt and is acquitted with blinks as well. I expect Mojica to send from the rail. Brittle and Yoo is my third choice, but her works, on paper, aren’t exactly stellar for a barn that can have them ready at first asking.
Race 3) 2-4-3-1
Arkansas breds tangle in the third. I Captain Don takes the class drop and is the inside speed. The winner of last out race won the Arkansas Breeders Championship, on Friday. Toss the race two back as he didn’t care for the slop. Lots to like here. Tempt Fate, #4, drops out of the same race as the top choice and Talamo picks up the ride as he won with this charge two back. Was over his head in last and I look for improvement with this lightly raced colt. Round it out with the #3, Bebop Shoes.
Race 4) 11-8-7
Another maiden special weight race, but this one is carded for three-year olds and upward. I normally look at older horses in these races, but there isn’t one I’m enamored with. I’ll settle on Bank, in the top spot. Improved a lot on the barn change to Amsussen and is second off the layoff. Was bet hard in his 2020 debut and has put in two maintenance works leading up to this race. J Z My Man, was scratched, off the AE list from Friday; goes from turf to dirt and goes to the Sharp barn. Drops the hood, which is a 32% angle for this barn. #7, Main Attraction, has had zero excuses in both his races, but merits a look as a four-year-old.
Race 5) 9-11-6-12
Very competitive race here. I tepidly landed on Bankit, though this one is certainly camera shy. Drops to the lowest level he’s seen in awhile and maybe this will be the confidence booster he needs. Mott ships Endorsed to Oaklawn off the barn switch from McLaughlin. Love Rosario aboard and takes the class drop, while facing Combatant, last out who I like in the Oaklawn Handicap tomorrow. I’m going to try and get Mick’s Star underneath at a price. Will improve, is second off the freshening, and is tactical, gets in light. Pirates Punch will have to work out a trip parked outside in stall #12. I’m going to spread in this middle leg of the pick three.
Race 6) 4-7-2-5
Last race before we get into the meat of the card. Not going to spend a lot of time on this race. Friar’s Road ran well, first off, the shelf, and adds the hood. There isn’t a lot of speed in this race; should carve out a nice trip on or near the lead. Let’s move on.
Race 7) 8-10
The return of Gamine. Dominated at first asking. She’s a complete stand out in this race, but is trying winners for the first time. Takes another step forward to what is hopefully a Kentucky Oaks contender moving forward.
Race 8) 6-10-11
Going to roll with Diodoro and Caribbean, #6. Interesting race carded as there are three-year olds versus elders sprinkled in at the 1 1/16 distance. Top choice likes Oaklawn and the distance. I fear a bounce, as he exploded fig wise in last, but Diodoro reclaimed this one and knows the horse well. Moretti, comes in second off the layoff. Beware, when I pick Pletcher to run well, he’s up the track. When I fade him, he strolls; I don’t like the fact JJ, hasn’t been on a horse since the middle of March. He struggled yesterday. Let’s round out the trifecta with the Ingrid and Defender.
Race 9) 3-7-12
This is a competitive race. Fearless drops out of graded stakes company, is second off the layoff, breaks from a nice post, gets Velazquez. There’s speed in here, so this one will get pace pressure. Rotation has yet to win at Oaklawn, but takes the slight class drop and is on his second race of his form cycle. Let’s go with TAP, Asmussen and Diodoro as top choices.
Race 10) 10-11-8-7
I’m going to spread to start the late pick five. This is deep race and there’s enough depth that we can beat the favorite. We’ll start with Ginobili, who scratched out of a race last Saturday to land here. Is the inside speed; bobbled at start in last and simply didn’t run a step. Backed up terribly. At 7/2 I’ll try to beat in the top slot. Rushie, #11, has a wide draw and at 5/2 will have to be much the best from out there. He has speed and will need to use it as the colt next, next door, is faster. I fear this one will lose ground. Candy Tycoon, 3/1 drops out of graded stakes where he didn’t do much running at all, though he was wide throughout. His best speed fig, on paper, doesn’t tower over this field in any way. I’m going with the #10, Prodigious Bay, on top. Stretching out, last out, this colt really moved up. The slop may have played a part in that as well, but at 5/1, I’m willing to be the stretch out that put this one in the winner’s circle. I’m going to use as many as I can.
Race 11) 1-9-4
The first of the split division Arkansas Derby prep races. The scratch of the only other speed horse certainly changed the complexion, though ultimately it won’t matter much. Charlatan is simply the fastest animal and will run like it. I believe we will see a procession from start to finish. I know, I’m not exactly going out on a limb. This colt is very talented. Let’s take the free square and move on. There are those that question his pedigree, but there’s stamina on the bottom side and he runs like a colt that will appreciate the ground. I think he’s the best colt on the trail, now, but let’s wait until September rolls around and see if I say the same thing.
Race 12) 7-2-11-1
My plan is to spread here while hoping to catch a price. There’s enough speed in here so Mr. Freeze can’t get comfortable on the front end. He should have company. Sadler has been on fire and Combatant is a different animal since he’s added the hood. He should have no excuse and should get a nice trip. Tacitus has burned more money than you can shake a stick at. The trip overseas and back won’t help this one at all. Posting two works since his February 29th race doesn’t exactly beat the drum in my hit parade. Improbable draws the parking lot and the mile and an eighth is stretching him distance wise. Trophy Chaser is a much better horse since he turned four years old and is training well leading into the race. Tax is a much better horse when on Lasix. Gargan is great off of this type of layoff and Carmouche gets the mount. Kendrick rides for this barn a lot. Let’s spread and get a price.
Race 13) 5-7-1
Second of the split Arkansas Derby races. Down to a field of nine. The scratches have zero bearing on the outcome of the race as both were tosses to me. Certainly, this is the deeper of the two races, one doesn’t need to work at Scotland Yard to see that. Appears to be plenty of speed signed on. Let’s start with King Guillermo. Waltzed through an opening half of :48, last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. As I look a bit deeper, not sure why it took him almost a month to post a work after his victory at Tampa. Then it took him another eleven days to work after his first posted work. Enough there to give me some pause. Wells Bayou is going to have to send from his post. I don’t see how FloGo tries to rate the colt out of Lookin’ at Lucky. Nadal has drawn the rail in two of his first three career starts. He had no choice to send. I note the in the San Vicente when he didn’t draw the rail he sat just off.
Race 14) 5-1-14
Let’s finish up the card with a marathon. I’m not going to spend a lot of time with this race, because I’m exhausted from capping and writing this card. Carlos Sixes, for Broberg, loves Oaklawn and is tactical. Place horse in last race won Thursday in a canter. The bug Roberts is good on front-end types. The only other possible speed is on the rail, but top choice in much faster from the gate. Dangerfield will get a fast track and ran very well on a fast track last out. Should be able to save plenty of ground.