Tomorrow there is a 100% chance of rain/snow at Aqueduct. All selections for turf races will have the selections for OFF TURF in parenthesis. Those races analysis will consist of in depth analysis on the two top selections (turf and dirt). Dirt races will be written as normal with in depth analysis on all top 3 horses. Best of luck today to all playing!
Race 1: 4-2
Oh how we love 5 horse fields……….. #4 TRACI’S GIRL improved massively in her last race running behind by only 2 1/4 lengths. We get a massive rider upgrade in Joel Rosario today, had a great work last time out and she has the highest speed figure in the field. #2 MARY’S GIRL just isn’t as good as TRACI’S GIRL but these two LAYDEES will be the most likely to win here. She’s run 3rd three straight times and has run two straight solid workouts. Those three third places were all at double digit odds and she’s the even money ML favorite today. Do yourself a favor, sleep in, make some brunch and skip this race playing it solo. These two are the only ones to use for multi race wagers.
Race 2: 3-2-9 (1-5-11)
Turf: #3 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI is dropping down in class today and two back won at a higher level at this distance. He ran 3rd in a Grade 2 this year and is the class of this field completely. Throw in a solid workout last time out and a good race where he just missed in his last and he looks the victor here.
Off Turf: #1 MAIMO won at this level at the Spa with Irad up and we get him back up today. His best recent speed figure is when he ran this distance and he was a winner that day. He is the most experienced dirt runner in this field and should be able to beat the others if this comes off the grass.
Race 3: 5-1-6
#5 WOODBURY has been ITM in all 3 races he’s been in and ran 2nd in a track with some moisture in it. He is the only one who has run on a track with moisture in it and Jose Ortiz jumps back aboard today and with some rain in the forecast he looks good if he handles the wet track well. #1 WILD BOAR was flying at the finish last time and if that race was longer he probably would’ve got there. Today he stretches out another 2 furlongs which looks to be what he wants. He’s only gotten stronger in his two races and has had very consistent works. #6 KLICKITAT ran a strong 3rd on the turf last time out and ran a great work in his last run. He should have some pace up front but not enough to be able to come from the back successfully.
Race 4: 7-6-2 (2-1-9)
Turf: #7 LADY CAMILLE has run consistently well at this level and has done her best running at this distance. Manny Franco led her to a strong 2nd place finish last time out and he’s been on fire this meet. All her works are consistent and if we are on turf she looks like a solid shot here.
Off Turf: #2 FIVEINTHEMORNING ran for the first time on dirt last time out and ran 2nd by a neck. Those last two works look very nice and was very willing to run even after being bumped at the start last time out. David Cohen jumps up today and they added blinkers last time which seemed to help a lot.
Race 5: 7-3-2
#7 FULL OF RUN is dropping down to the lowest level of his career and has the highest speed figures in this field by far. Irad jumps on today and we see a couple of bullet workouts since the last time out. That last race was very solid considering he was steadied coming into the lane and he only finished 2 1/2 lengths back. Today he outclasses the rest by a lot and should have an easy time. #3 MY MR. WONDERFUL broke his maiden last time out and was just able to hold on. This time we add an extra half furlong and if he didn’t hold on at a shorter distance I don’t believe that he will at a longer one but he will be ITM. #2 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN broke his maiden last time out and that was his first time over the dirt track. Today at 12/1 ML why not throw him in on some unders to spice up the exotics?
Race 6: 8-2-3 (8-1-10)
#8 MERGER ARBITRAGE looks to be the best shot on both the turf and dirt. ITM in all 3 races this year and Javier has been up for all races. Since her last race she has run a couple of very solid works. Two of her three races this year have been on the dirt and the other on the turf. One of those two races on dirt was over a sloppy track and she can run over anything. I’m going to send it in and hopefully we can get around the 3/1 ML.
Race 7: 4-8-3 (2-5-7)
Turf: #4 CANARSIE KID has been ITM in all 5 races this year and last time out ran a very strong 3rd. We get Jose Ortiz up today has a decent work before this race and I believe he is able to beat the favorite as I believe the turf favorite doesn’t like the distance. This guy can get the this distance and likes it and he’s run over a yielding turf before.
Off Turf: #2 FOOLISH GHOST is an MTO who has a win at this distance two races ago and has had success this year. The last race was at a higher level and he ran a solid 3rd and today with the drop in class he should be able to get into the winners circle if off the turf.
Race 8: 3-2-1
#3 KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN is taking a step down in class after winning and earning a career high speed figure last time out. Jose Ortiz stays up today and we see a bunch of bullet works since that last victory. At 10/1 ML why not take a shot in a small field here where they all seem fairly even. #2 LIFE IN SHAMBLES theres a joke to be made here about my life but I just won’t do it. This guy is coming off a win at the level and at the distance beating the third choice that day by a neck. Irad is back up today and we see a very similar work to the one he put in before his last winning performance. #1 PETE’S PLAY CALL as we said before just missed last time out and we see a solid work since that last race. We won at Laurel two tries ago and looks like a solid play for the under here.
Race 9: 9-6-8
#9 STONEY BENNETT was caught just before the wire last time out to miss the three peat. Manny gets back on today and has guided this gelding to do his best running in his past 3 races. He gets a step down to the lowest level of his life today, has a solid work prior to this and should be able to outclass this field. #6 MORNING BREEZ is taking a step down in class as well and has run 4th or better in every race this year. We see a couple of solid workouts prior to this race and has the back class to compete here. #8 SICILIA MIKE has run 2nd or better in the last 3 races he’s run and he’s also getting class relief here. His speed figures suggest he can hang in there with the best in this field and he looks like the nibbler will strike again today.