I have handicapped for only dirt races since we are anticipating 3 inches of rain. But just in case please check my twitter handle @jailmovemaster for updated picks and analysis once scratches are announced and in case we do not have a fast and firm track.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 Play- 5 / 2,4 / 2,7 / 3 / 13,14,15,16 = $8
Aggressive Pick 5 Play – 1,2,5,8 / 4 / 1,2,3,7 / 3,6 / 6,13,14,15,16 = $80
Race 1- 5-2-8
#5- Tequila Sunday- She is by far has the fastest races in this weak field and will most likely be 2/5 when they go into the gate. She is far from a single and I would consider spreading a little here in the pick 5. It is hard to trust a maiden entering the gate in her 20th try and I do not expect the anticipated wet surface to help her. She can win, she should win but far from a cinch.
#2- Union Patriot- If you are looking for a bomb to light up your exotics, here is your gal. She is likely to have a little early speed which is something most of these lack. I can see a scenario where she is in the top three entering the first turn and saving all of the ground. She has yet to run on a wet surface and her breeding suggests it will help her. Dylan Davis is as underrated a jockey as there is on this circuit and always manages to grab a piece of the purse at a big price.
#8- Unparalleled- Those that have followed me probably know my Bruce Brown stories. I am not a fan of his barn and this horse looks like the best of the rest. She will be forwardly placed and dropping in class. The outside posts at Aqueduct have been successful when the going gets wet. She is probably the best play here but I never trust Bruce Brown.
Race 2- 4-3-2
#4- Tale Of Mist- I really like this horse coming into this race. Throw out the 7F races or more. This horse wants to sprint and his best races are at the 6F distance. Trainer John Toscano won with this horse off the jail move at 9-1 (yeah we had him) and has since tired the last two times out when going further. The cutback and the drop in class is just what he needs.
#3- O Shea Can U See- He is projected to be alone on the lead for Jason Servis. He has the fastest races out of all of these but the wet track is concerning. His only two times on less than a fast track and this horse has not moved a hoof. He is bred to like the wet stuff so maybe he just didn’t have it those days. Very dangerous at a price if ready.
#2- Mohican- He will likely be the favorite on another horse dropping. However when Diodoro drops horses, I usually stay away. He is a hard favorite to like due to gate issues, the drop and I think he is more of a turf horse. Must consider but not a favorite I like to endorse.
Race 3- 2-7-1
#2- Crea’s Bklyn Law- It’s a jail move. You know I am married to this move and in this case he is getting a huge trainer upgrade to Michelle Nevin. The horse has yet to win this year but has been running in over his head. He should like the wet going. The only question is will he get enough pace to close into?
#7- Wild Colonial Boy- My jail move is the top pick but this is most likely the better play and much better value. The Linda Rice barn has been winning just about everything lately. His lone win was on a track with a little moisture and is going 1st off the jail move (I will post a write up soon about this angle).
#1- Takeoff- This is not a jail move but I find it interesting that Gary Contessa is putting this one in for more than twice the claim price. This 550k purchase price and 5x failed favorite has suggested this one always had the talent. Is it possible that Contessa can find out the secret formula? He has the most talent in the field and will be one of the longer prices in the field. Hmmm?
Race 4- 3-6
#3- Koscuiszko- I tried to find a reason to go against him because it’s likely that the horse might bounce a little bit after the recent blowout performance. However, that figure might be real because a few of the horses from that field have come back to win next out. It is also interesting that my top pick and my 2nd pick ran on the same day and Koscuiszko won by a full second faster despite the jockey easing the horse at the end. It is also strange to find a 2yo sprint race where no one but my top pick may want the lead.
Race 5- 16-15-13
#16- Shadow Rider- He finished a nose behind my 2nd choice so I will look for him to turn the tables on his rival. I would imagine that when this race is on the dirt, Rudy will attract a rider like Jose Ortiz to ride which will be a huge upgrade over what has been his driver of late. I would also pay attention to the earlier races. If speed is not holding up then you can upgrade this horse even more.
#15- Single Gem- He just missed last time out at this level and should be alone on the lead. He likes to run second a lot and I can see a similar scenario here.
#13- Dark N Cloudy- He is probably the horse that should be played since he has room to grow as the least experienced runner in the field. Jason Servis will stretch him out and will going 2nd off the jail move (there we go again). He is very dangerous and a must include.
Race 6- 7-6-2
#7- Deep Sea- If you look at just the sprint races this horse has run in the Servis Barn, then he is by far the horse to beat in my opinion. He has the perfect post and should be in perfect stalking position. The claim price is not concerning since they have already made their money with this horse. A win and claim is what they are looking for. The long layoff lines tell me that something isn’t perfect with this horse but when Servis has him come off the long layoff, like he is here, the horse pounces.
#6- Happy Farm- He has done his best work on wet surfaces so he will get upgraded today. His races put him in the mix here.
#2- Rockford- It is hard to get a read on this hard knocking 7-year old. His best races destroy this field but he has been known to throw in a few clunkers from time to time, including his last. He does like this track and coming in rested. Watch the board to find out.
(I will tweet out updates based on how the track is playing but these are my initial thoughts)
Race 7- 7-13
Race 8- 14-9-15
Race 9- 5-6-2