It is a pleasure to be once again writing to my horse community. I hope you missed me as much as I missed you guys. Let’s cash some tickets together. Please check my twitter handle @jailmovemaster for updated picks and analysis once scratches are announced and in case we do not have a fast and firm track.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 6-2-3
#6- Ash N Em- It will be pretty hard to find a worse opener at Aqueduct this meet than today’s 30k MCL. I want nothing to do with horses that have already run so it looks like a dart throwing contest with the firsters. Rudy has been running good of late so I land on him and Irad here. I also like the outside post in this sprint race. She will be my top pick but only if he is not the chalk.
#2- Infatuation- She will most likely be the favorite because of the connections who do very well with 2yos and firsters. A bunch of gate drills in the morning suggest that he may have some difficulty breaking from the start but if he does he might be tough to catch.
#3- Bustin Free- As a former owner of Bustin It, I am a sucker for a Bustin Stones first time starter. They are usually bred to be very fast early. He might be the right price and this isn’t your daddy’s Gary Contessa of late. Watch the board. If he takes action early he is very live.
Race 2- 6-3-2
#6- Fillet of Sole- Everyone who follows me knows that I am as big a Jason Servis fan as they come. That being said, I tried really hard to find a way to beat him here and I just can’t see it. I would tred lightly however since Jason Servis is giving away a horse coming off a terrible effort. This horse either wins by 5 lengths or is running up the track.
#3- Go Big or Go home- This is probably the value play if my top pick doesn’t run a step. His form of late has not been very good but he has races on this track that would beat these. He is well rested and I can see him popping a good one off the bench at a price.
#2- Ride on Faith- Likely to be overbet but Chris Englehart would have to improve him and his numbers are not great 1st off the claim.
Race 3- 4-6-7
#4= Playwright- I really like this horse off the layoff for Danny Gargan. You have to cut through a bunch of his races but the one-turn 7F race looks right up his alley. Danny Gargan is also one of those trainers that tells you how well his horses are doing. When he drops horses they usually don’t run a lick at a short price. In this case, he is raising his claim price over 2x. This type of confidence tells me he is ready to run another good race at a decent price.
#6- Heavy Meddle- This horse is usually good for cashing a check but never likes to win. I see no reason why that scenario will change today albeit at a short price.
#7- One River Place- This well traveler comes to NY off the claim and attracts Jose Ortiz. His speed figures fit and I usually like out of towners trying Aqueduct this time of year. Dangerous.
Race 4- 14-12-13
Race 5- 6-4-5
#6- Riken – This is a strong play for me. On September 29th he beat a maiden bunch who have come back to be decent including a horse who won here on Saturday. He then tried a salty state-bred stakes race where he made a move too early at 68-1 before getting beat by a horse who looks like a future star on this circuit. Anything close to that performance and he crushes these.
#4- Just Right- I would imagine the connections will make this horse the favorite but he is a bit suspect. His lone win was when he had his things go his way with an easy lead and he will not get that here. He is talented but likely to be overbet.
#5- Americano- The mile master gets aboard this interesting horse. He has faced really good horses each time out and one can make an argument this is his easiest field of his career. Do not ignore.
Race 6- 6-8-12
Race 7- 5-3-4
#5- Daddy DT- Similar to Danny Gargan, Linda Rice lets you know how her horses are doing by where she places them. The slight bump increase in claim price off a loss tells you this one should run well. He loves the track and gets the mile master aboard. All signs say run to the windows.
#3- Outplay- He is by far the class of the field but it has to be concerning that Pletcher has no problem letting this horse go because he will be claimed. The one turn mile is right up his alley and I can kinda forgive his last effort against a tough bunch.
#4- John Jones – Another out of towner who is a one mile distance specialist.
Race 8- 6-1-10
Race 9- 10-9-8-5